The Lights are Going out Over Europe
Because: lack of wind, long winter nights, and Angela Merkel's most disastrous policy decision, the Energiewende
It seems the end is nigh.
Of the present régime, not the Apocalypse (as that hour cannot be know).
How do I know? Well, for starters, the grid is getting wobbly, and no electricity equals massive dislocations, esp. while trying ever more desperately to get into a shooting war (here: against Russia).
This has been covered by legacy media (and with plenty of coverage in these pages here at Die Fackel 2.0 over the years), and here’s what I will add to your understanding of where we’re apparently headed.
As always, non-English content comes to you in my translation, with emphases and [snark] added.
‘Moldova Declares State of Emergency over Gas’
To set the stage, a few lines from a brief news item from Austrian state broadcaster ORF—see if you can spot the spin (/sarcasm):
The parliament in Moldova today decided to declare a national state of emergency due to the interruption of Russian gas supplies. It is to be imposed for 60 days from Monday, as Russian gas supplies are expected to be interrupted from 1 January…
It is up to parliament to approve the state of emergency, said Prime Minister Dorin Recean, so that ‘this winter must be the last in the country’s history in which we can be blackmailed with energy’.
The ‘blackmail with gas’ by Moscow must be ended, and he also wants to ensure...the declaration of a state of emergency allows the government to react quickly and curb energy exports.
Moldova receives Russian natural gas—around two million cubic metres a year—via Ukraine, which does not want to extend its transit contract with the Russian energy company Gazprom. The contract expires on 31 December.
I resisted the strong urge to add [snark] here, because once you finished reading these lines (and perhaps you’d like to do so again, albeit from the bottom to the top), you know what has happened:
cause: Ukraine refuses to renew the gas transit contract with Gazprom
effect #1: Moldova fears energy shortages due to this cause
effect #2: Moldova declares a state of emergency to ‘quickly react’ to whatever will inevitably follow (my guess is riots)
Legacy media coverage, while admittedly somewhere between stupid and worse, is actually even more laughably absurd once we consider the following fact about Europe’s largest economy, Germany:
As this one X/Twitter user posted this image from the Bild Zeitung, we note that on 11 Dec. 2024 Germany’s electricity imports amounted to 22.83% of demand. It’s not yet really cold in Central Europe (that usually happens in January and February), but from 1 Jan. 2025 onwards, no more Russian gas will come via Ukraine.
Germany’s energy production shortfall is between 20-25% of demand right now, which is the direct consequence of shutting down the country’s nuclear reactors by the Merkel and subsequent Scholz gov’t.
How, pray tell, do you think this will play out? Well, I for one think it won’t be pretty, esp. as Germany is headed to a snap federal election in mid-February 2025.
And this conundrum brings us to ‘explanations’ for Germany’s sky-high electricity prices, which come to us via excerpts from two legacy media pieces, one from Sweden and the other from Norway.
Enjoy, if you will (/sarcasm).
‘I’m mad at the Germans’, says Swedish Energy Minister Ebba Busch
Published by Swedish state broadcaster SVT on 12 Dec. 2024, here is a pretty useful explanation for this mess:
Energy Minister Ebba Busch (KD) does not rule out direct support to households and businesses if electricity prices remain high this winter [this means telling the EU Commission that Sweden might disregard ‘market™’ principles].
‘This government has promised to stand by the people’, she says.
Electricity prices have risen sharply over the past 24 hours, especially in southern Sweden. In the coming days, the price spikes seem to subside, but should the winter of 2022 with record-high electricity prices be repeated, the government does not rule out new measures.
‘The government is open to supporting households and businesses if necessary,’ said Ebba Busch at a press conference on Tuesday.
However, she does not want to go into what such support might look like [of course not because doing so would give away the game to the EU Commissars].
‘We can’t repeat the type of model that was introduced under the EU's crisis support regulation two years ago. We’ll have to look at other support, but it’s too early to tell’, says Ebba Busch, who points out that the forecasts look better this winter than in 2022…
Busch: Responsibility of the Social Democrats
Ebba Busch, on the other hand, holds previous Social Democrat-led governments responsible for dismantling the electricity system: ‘By closing down nuclear power, Sweden is too dependent on the weather.’
‘Electricity prices we see today are a direct consequence of a red-green energy policy for eight years. This is what was sown and it is something that the Swedish people are now reaping’, she says.
Criticises Germany [this is the money paragraph]
The price of electricity in southern Sweden is affected by the fact that the Forsmark 3 nuclear power plant is shut down for maintenance, which is not expected to be completed until early next year.
At the same time, there is no wind in Germany [yep, read that again: hilarious, eh?], which is also affecting electricity areas 3 and 4 in Sweden. Ebba Busch takes the opportunity to criticise Germany for shutting down nuclear power.
‘I’m mad at the Germans’, says Busch:
‘It is also the case that they are not introducing electricity price zones in Germany, which means that we are much more affected by the irresponsible electricity policy in Germany.’
You see, both Norway and Sweden subdivide their domestic energy markets into ‘zones’ to use these as buffer against fluctuating energy prices; Germany doesn’t do so.
It’s but half the answer, because electricity markets in Germany are larger and consumers have more options to chose from various companies (which is often not the case in Scandinavia as many areas within these zones are cartelised due to low population density and lack of economic sense).
That said, so far these shenanigans have worked ± like this: southern Norway and Sweden are connected via undersea cables to Denmark and Germany, and if prices are very high in Germany, it becomes very profitable to sell there and in turn import from elsewhere, e.g., Norway sells to Germany for top dollars and makes up the difference with cheap nuclear power from Sweden. It’s a win-win-lose situation for Norway and Sweden (win-win) and a big money sink for Germany.
So, while you may be mad like Ms. Busch—don’t forget that she’s also saying but half the truth about who to blame: yes, the previous red-green Swedish gov’t is to blame for their contribution to the so-called energy transition (Energiewende in German), what she leaves out is, thankfully, spelled out by Norwegian state broadcaster NRK to which we now turn.
‘A Shower Costs US$ 5’
Of course, ‘sky-high’ electricity prices in southern Norway’s price zone were also hotly debated over here. The above header is from this piece (12 Dec. 2024), which also included the following gem:
Power analyst at Volue Insight, Tor Reier Lilleholt, has not recorded higher electricity prices since 2009.
‘It’s right up there with the highest prices we’ve ever seen in southern Norway’, he says.
He believes that ‘price contagion’ from Germany is the reason for the high prices. There is little wind in Germany these days.
Muahahahahahaha.
In the below infobox, NRK offers ‘more’ information:
The price of electricity in Norway is affected by the wind in Germany because we are connected to the European electricity market.
When Germany produces a lot of wind power, electricity becomes cheaper and affects prices here.
Low wind, on the other hand, means more expensive electricity from gas and coal, which also pushes up prices in Norway via the power cables.
Winter and cold weather also mean that people demand more electricity, and during periods of both low electricity supply and cold weather, prices will increase.
So, here you go, with NRK thankfully (for once) actually doing journalism and explaining this mess.
It’s an indictment of Angela Merkel’s Energiewende (energy transition), which was further imposed on the EU/EEC bloc as a whole.
What comes next is as foreseeable as it is absurd:
On the one hand, Norway already has what is called strømstøtte—direct subsidies, i.e., price controls—for consumers, private citizens and businesses alike (they can do so because Norway isn’t in the EU, which is why Ms. Busch was hedging her anger a bit)
On the other hand, Labour (which is in power right now) is under enormous pressure as every month brings new, disastrous polling data (they’re now below 15%)—and now it’s the red-dark red-green gov’t that’s mulling to cut some of the export cables
In addition, just imagine what will happen to Germany and the other major European economies if 20-25% of supply will gradually disappear from 1 Jan. 2025 onwards.
Exactly: the lights will go out. In the depths of winter.
If there ever was a bigger indictment of Europe’s ‘Green New Deal’, I don’t know what is. Hence the importance of EU Accession Candidate Moldova’s decision to impose, in effect, martial law.
This is further supported by an op-ed published by NRK yesterday whose header is ‘The Electricity Spectre is Back’:
Electricity is not only a vital infrastructure, it’s also a commodity that many people think Norway, with its rich resources of hydropower, wind, and oil, should have more than enough of.
Hydropower costs an average of 12 øre to produce for each kilowatt hour [that’s about US$ 1 cent]. In the last ten years before the price crisis began in 2021, electricity cost an average of 30-35 øre per kilowatt hour…
The appetite for developing new power is not at all in line with the anger over electricity prices. Wind power is still a word that few politicians dare to use, and faith in offshore wind as a fast energy source has been shaken [to say nothing about the contamination due to ‘nasty fibres’ falling off windmills during regular use].
Only nuclear power, which in any case lies well into the future, seems to be in favour. We tend to favour the energy source that is furthest away from us at any given time…
The enthusiasm for everything from battery factories to the electrification of the Norwegian continental shelf, the kinder eggs that were supposed to solve the climate problem and give Norway something to live on after oil, is now turning around.
The trio of Støre [Labour, PM], Vedum [Centre, Treasury Sec.], and Aasland [Labour, Energy Sec.] learnt this the hard way when they presented the Melkøya plans in Hammerfest in the run-up to the election last year. What they thought was a gift package for Northern Norway is described by many as the main reason for the fall of the governing parties in the north…
A new winter with high and partly incomprehensible electricity prices is probably the last thing this government needs as a warm-up for the long election campaign. Perhaps with the exception of a harrowing leadership battle.
Given the shitty polling data, PM Støre is heavily under fire internally; it’s also mentioned, truthfully, that the electricity price mess began under the leadership of ‘Conservative™’-led gov’t under Erna Solberg about a decade ago, but pointing this out might make for a ‘winning’ argument in the upcoming election between spots 2 and 3, for it appears that the ‘Trumpian’ war hawk-populists from the Progress Party might pull of a win…
None of this, by the way, addresses the underlying massive problems.
Bonus: NRK ‘splains’ Sky-High Electricity Prices
Today, this was followed up by Norwegian state broadcaster NRK offering the following explanations:
Norway is part of a power market that is linked to Europe. The purpose of the electricity market is to ensure that electricity is better distributed [that’s not how a market works, by the way; this is the EU’s energy ‘market™’], so that everyone gets enough electricity and prices are more even.
Norway is connected to other countries by power cables. Today we have 17 such connections to other countries...
When Germany produces a lot of wind power, electricity becomes cheaper and affects prices here [marginally].
On the other hand, little wind means more expensive electricity from gas and coal, which also pushes up prices in Norway through the power cables.
So, the proximate origin of these woes is—Angela Merkel’s Energiewende.
As to the EU’s energy ‘market™’, we learn the following:
‘As consumers, we have to relate to the price area we belong to [note that Germany does not have such subdivisions]. This means that every hour a price is set for where you live and use electricity’, explains [energy consultant] Brenna.
Nord Pool is a marketplace for electricity in the Nordic region, but companies from all over Europe can also trade there.
Why are electricity prices so high?
This is due to little wind, low temperatures and little sun.
[Brenna] ‘Winter and cold temperatures in Europe mean that people demand more electricity, and during periods with both a low supply of electricity and a lot of cold, prices will increase.’
‘[Electricity production and consumption] must be kept in balance at all times. If there’s an imbalance, we’ll actually have power cuts. When the Germans don’t have wind power and don’t have solar power, and at the same time have high electricity consumption, they are desperate for enough electricity to keep the power systems in balance. So they buy electricity from Norway [and Sweden], and we are obliged to exchange and deliver electricity to them [that will go before too long: let the contracts expire or call for re-negotiations, or simply declare force majeure, the result will be the same: panic in Berlin, a moment before the lights go out].
[NRK] Why can’t we just use the power from the reservoirs?
‘We can, and we do. But we can’t just turn the tap on full blast and let the whole reservoir gush through. There's a limit to how much you can utilise at the same time. But without a lot of water in the reservoirs, this would be much worse, as electricity prices would be even higher.’
Here you can see the current levels of water in Norway’s reservoirs, which is quite good and well above the median, but there are limits to how much can be utilised at any given moment; and that’s before we consider the fact that it will get cold now, i.e., less rain and more snow, which means that the reservoirs will now be drained until spring…
As to the future, energy consultant Brenna concludes as follows:
Brenna believes that what we have seen with extremely low and negative electricity prices, and extremely high electricity prices, is a phenomenon that will happen in the future.
‘I'm worried that we'll see many long periods of extremely high prices and extremely low prices. Both are a problem for the power system’, says Brenna [as this will put enormous pressure on the grid, but it will also mean rapidly rising risks for discontent]
He explains that there will be much more solar and wind power in Europe, which in turn creates more imbalance.
‘We won't be able to build enough battery capacity or upgrade hydropower to balance the electricity market in the first few years. This takes time, and we have to get used to the fact that electricity prices will fluctuate a lot in the years to come.’
In the end, this will likely cause a few black or brown-outs, esp. during the winter months, which will be catastrophic, to say the least.
Bottom Lines
Now you do see the ‘wisdom’ of Moldova pre-emptively declaring a state of emergency well before the end of Russian gas deliveries.
Norway and Sweden could, theoretically, throttle or even shut down transmission to Germany temporarily, but this will massively harm Central Europeans.
Yet in Central Europe, nothing is done other than smooth BS being spewed to placate and lull the people into a false sense of complacency.
It’s not even winter yet, and alarm bells are going off all over the place.
Yet, especially the German (and Austrian) gov’ts are pretending that all is well.
The clock is ticking—and while Germany’s Uniparty politicos™ are calling for war with Russia, aided and abetted by NATO chief lap-doodle Mark Rutte, they’re quite likely in for a surprise:
No electricity means no rail transport, to say nothing about war production.
Perhaps Einstein was wrong: it might be WW3 that’ll be fought with sticks and stones.
That is, if we’re lucky.
Still, the main take-away is: things will likely get bumpy before too long, and if you’re not prepared for this, just let us be clear: you’re in for quite a rude awakening.
It would make a good (if somewhat grim) Christmas parlor game to guess which country or region will have prolonged blackouts first, which seems to be certain to happen the next few months.
Like in Eurovision, Australia might be the surprise winner, as Sydney has the same problem, except there the "green" energy doesn't work and/or is insufficient when it is too hot. Brownouts are predicted for this summer.
But de holy climate! Should it die just so we have energy? No, of course not. Energy is overrated. Just look at the birds. They don't sow, they reap, and the Lord God feeds them. In that respect, thank you, Mr. Economicdestructionduetoclimatebullshitsavingministerinpersonalunion.