'Shock Polling' from Norway shows Massive 'Far-Right™' Shift

As the Progress Party moves to the top of the polling pile, a once-in-a-generation opportunity to break the political hegemony of socialist Norway: will they pull it off?

Today, we shall briefly focus on Norwegian domestic politics, if only because new polling data, gathered less than a year from the next national election, is quite stunning: if the polling data proves to be somewhat accurate, the Progress Party (Fremskrittspartiet, or Frp) might be in charge of Norway before too long. (All translations and emphases, as well as [snark] mine.)

Why would that be significant? Well, for starters, the Progress Party is to the right of mainstream Conservatives (Høyre), and, as far as Wikipedia is concerned, it is called a ‘libertarian’-‘far-right’ party. So far, the Frp was the country’s third-largest faction and a junior partner in Erna Solberg’s centre-right coalition gov’t from 2013-20.

The Progress Party focuses on law and order, downsizing the bureaucracy and the public sector; the FrP self-identifies as an economic liberal party which competes with the left to represent the workers of Norway. The party has officially opposed Norwegian membership in the European Union since 2016, after having been neutral on the issue before. The Progress Party calls for a strict immigration policy, integration of immigrants and for the removal of illegal immigrants or foreigners who commit crimes…

[the Frp is] built on Norwegian and Western traditions and cultural heritage, with a basis in a Christian understanding of life and humanist values. Its main declared goal is a strong reduction in taxes and government intervention

So, a right-wing ‘people’s party’ with, according to my opinion, a quite palatable platform for this day and age. If there’s a thing I personally dislike, it’s the Frp’s pro-NATO/Transatlantic stance, but then again, that’s in part also due to Norway’s location. I’m personally unsure if stronger partnership with, say, neighbouring Russia would be better (I doubt it) than far-away Uncle Sam.

Gov’t, Establishment in Panic Mode

The current national polling—reproduced below—has many people and official Oslo running around with their hair on fire, as state broadcaster NRK reporting™ indicates:

(H = Høyre, or Conservatives; AP = Arbeiderpartiet, or Labour; SV = Sosialistisk Venstre, or Socialist Left; the rest isn’t that important; the poll is based on 1,000 interviews conducted between 12-16 Nov. 2024, with a margin of error of 1-3.4%.)

The Progress Party is currently polling at around 25%, which means it’s larger than the Labour and Socialist Left parties combined. If these polls are somewhat accurate, it would spell drastic losses for left-of-centre politicking, and it might inaugurate a new, post-socialistic Norway. Can you imagine that?

It would seem that a centre-right gov’t will be in charge in Oslo before too long, and while this is (very) bad news for the left-left-right gov’t currently in power, it’s also quite some bad news for former prime minister Erna Solberg whose, well, let’s be generous and call it milquetoast ‘defence™’ is worthy of—contempt:

‘There is a right-wing wave in Norway, and people want a change’, says another prime ministerial candidate, Høyre’s Erna Solberg.

But Solberg has no intention of sitting still and letting Frp sail past:

‘It's good to have a right-wing majority, but we’ll probably have to give the Frp a bit of a fight for voters. They have perhaps been a little better than us at coming forward with their rhetorical issues.

[NRK] So this is about [Progress Party chair Sylvi] Listhaug being a good orator?

[Solberg] ‘I think there’s a difference between the Conservatives and the Progress Party [gee, I hope so]. We agree on a lot of things, but in some areas we’re keen to ensure good, long-term development and that our proposals are backed up. The Conservatives don’t promise more than we can fulfil [sayeth Ms. Solberg who didn’t name a single core difference…].

[NRK] Does Frp do that?

[Solberg] ‘I don't think they necessarily have cover for all their proposals, but we’ll have to have a friendly discussion about that [what a defeatist comment].

While Listhaug describes the Conservatives and the Labour Party as too similar, Solberg thinks voters need to understand that the Conservatives are a more responsible alternative than the Progress Party [‘vote for me, I’m the responsible adult’ isn’t exactly a winning strategy; heck, it’s not even a short-term tactic but stuff a loser would say].

‘I think Frp strikes a chord with people who want very different policies to those offered by the government. But the Conservatives offer more secure policies. Because we know we can deliver on our promises.’ [basically, Ms. Solberg says ‘vote for me, I’m the safe bet’, which isn’t what the Progress Party promises]

[NRK] Could you accept Listhaug as prime minister?

‘We’ll decide when we get that far. The Conservatives have their candidate for prime minister, the Progress Party has theirs’, says Solberg, while emphasising that she believes that no party has ‘absolutes’ on these issues. [I read this as, if she doesn’t accept it, she might be a goner]

Now you can see how drastic this shift is—a few years ago, Labour won the elections and formed a left-left-wing gov’t, and they can’t benefit from being in power in terms of polling.

Should the polling somehow accurately translate into election results, it would signify a massive re-alignment in Northern Europe, perhaps it might even be the beginning of the end of Scandinavia’s love affair with Western Marxist politics.

Progress Party Share Doubles Among Young Voters

I’m using this kind of ‘drastic™’ wording not for cheap effect—but because something more seismic appears afoot in Norway. For insights here, we turn to Norway’s Chronicle of Higher Education equivalent Khrono whose academic staff—most of whom are firmly to the left or far-left of centre—were literally ‘shocked’ earlier today, subheading its piece holding that ‘the Progress Party has never been so popular among young voters’.

And that’s not all, as the piece offers quite a few damning indictments of the current Norwegian gov’t, as well as of their Conservative-led ‘secure’ (Solberg) and responsible mirror image:

‘I don’t want Swedish circumstances. I think immigration policy is the most burning issue. We have to manage to integrate people in the right way. The Progress Party is a bit harsh on this one, but that’s something we need. It may have something to do with the fact that more students are voting for them’, says OsloMet student Karoline Tverberg…

In a survey conducted by Sentio on behalf of the Norwegian Student Organisation and Khrono, a thousand students were asked which party they would vote for if there were a general election tomorrow.

As many as 17.8% said they would vote for Frp, up from 9.4% in a similar survey in 2023.

Frp is the third largest party based on the survey, hot on the heels of the Labour Party (Ap) and the Conservatives, who have 19.5% and 18.9% support respectively.

I suspect—expect—the numbers of the Progress Party to further climb in the months ahead of the election. This has to do with exploding cost-of-living expenditures, which affects students in particular (it’s also something virtually all ‘my’ students mention: student loans are way too low to let them afford studying full-time, and I can’t describe the face a young woman made earlier today when I told her that Ukrainians would receive many times more money from the gov’t than students…)

Khrono is a weird outlet, mainly because their style is often reminiscent of tabloid throw-away papers and, if it’s ‘against the Right™’, the reliably produce (sic) second-hand reporting, i.e., offering re-written versions of The Atlantic and Politico. Still, domestic politics is quite well-covered, if only their newsrooms are filled with many former (humanities) students (and many of whom, I’d opine, wouldn’t find employment elsewhere).

But they also have quite good ties to Norwegian academics, hence the following ‘splainin’ by Election researcher Johannes Bergh who works at the Institute for Social Research (Institutt for samfunnsforskning) who observes ‘a clear trend of young voters moving more towards the political right’.

‘Students have been among the most left-wing voters, and the Progress Party has not been among the most popular parties. It’s interesting that there has been a clear shift in recent years. This is probably not because Frp has the best student policy, but because students are influenced by the same trends in society as other people. Personal finances and tax policy [2023 saw Norway’s highest-ever tax income] have become increasingly important, while the climate issue, which was so dominant a few years ago, has become less important’, says Bergh.

The survey shows that Frp is particularly popular among young men. 25% of the men surveyed said they would vote for the party [if you know Scandinavia, you know why: ‘equalitarian’ politicking has run rampant, with virtually no mainstream advertisement and job offerings being, well, equal but obviously heavily tilted towards women; in addition, if the virtually the entire legacy media sings from the same anti-male book as elsewhere in left-leaning Western contexts, imagine who young men will vote for; for the record, we note that Jordan Peterson has stated so a decade ago, but he was of course vilified in Scandinavia by the very same people who now marvel that young men say they’ll vote for the ‘far-right™’].

Bergh believes this is due to a backlash against political correctness [oh, yes, the top-down wokefied nonsense is similarly off-putting]:

‘I think there are several reasons why young men are turning to Frp. There are some young men who think gender equality has gone too far, it’s probably also a kind of reaction against political correctness in society and it’s also a reaction against the green climate wave. Particularly when it comes to political correctness, the Progress Party has been the party that has shown the clearest resistance’, says Bergh.

Go woke, go broke before too long, it would seem, is the common denominator here. But there’s more:

Khrono spoke to a group of students who are divided on how they would have voted, but all agree that Frp’s success is not surprising.

‘I understand why so many people want to vote for them. It doesn’t come as a shock’, says student Sarah Osmani.

‘It used to be something you hid away’, says Osmani, ‘but now people are more open about voting for the Progress Party’. Like Tverberg, Osmani thinks that immigration is a factor.

Student Anna Marie Nordhuus thinks in a different direction:

‘It’s TikTok and Simen Velle [the Young Progress Party chair]. That has a lot to do with it, he’s good at uniting mainly young boys. They feel marginalised and have been downgraded in many debates. Then they get a platform where someone sees them’, says Nordhuus...

Oh, look, a politico™ who listens to voters: what a change, eh? It’s also the well-established trope of ‘the far-right™ is better than us at social media’, but that’s also an established fact, I’d offer.

When it comes to how they would vote, the students Khrono has spoken to are more divided.

‘I would probably stick to the Centre Party. I’m from the countryside, and they stand for many of the things that are most important to me. Among other things, they prioritise farmers’, says Christian Kalinde.

‘I think it would have been the Red Party. I agree with many of their issues. Palestine is very important to me, and that we don’t give money to arms sales’, says Iman Yasmin Marwan Nawfal.

Fellow student Osmani doesn’t feel she knows enough to say which party she is in favour of, but says she used to be more engaged. ‘It’s about politicians not keeping their promises’, says Nordhuus. ‘Trust is broken when politicians find themselves in scandal after scandal.’

‘I would have had to read fast if I were to vote tomorrow! I have a good impression of the Liberal Party, but I needed to read more before I made up my mind,’ says Nordhuus.

Eriksen says that he has previously abstained from voting because he doesn’t know enough.

What the students can agree on completely are the student loans. They are too low.

‘We need more money. We get ten thousand crowns [approx. US$ 1,000] and then it costs ten thousand crowns to rent. You have to balance school and work. We can’t live without a job unless we get support from our parents or have money’, says Kalinde.

In addition, foreign policy, the environment, immigration, and elder care are mentioned.

Nordhuus gets the impression that other students, like herself, don’t read much about politics and are busy with their own things.

‘It's not a priority. We have a good life in Norway, so it’s not a matter of life and death whether Labour or the Conservatives are in government. You don’t really notice that’, says Nordhuus.

And that latter thing is a chief contributor to the Progress Party’s polling numbers.

Add to that the once-in-a-generation chance they have: topping off the student loan program and spending a bit more money on young voters now offers the opportunity of a decisive, rightward shift.

It might actually break the hegemony of left/far-left politics over Norway.

Time will tell.