It’s 2024, and we’re back to WW1-style trench warfare. I find this a little odd, haven‘t we had 100+ years of evolution of «shock» warfare since then? Are the Russian generals idiots? Remember tanks? Blitzkrieg? «Achtung - panzer!»? Mechanized infantry? Complete air superiority and the operational freedom this brings? Combined arms? Was none of this curriculum at the general staff acamdemy in Moscow? The war-narrative is seriously losing credibility with every day that passes. Where are the massive tank formations? Supported by mechanized infantry with air support and artillery barrages? The whole war looks like a giant half-assed skirmish. Some old dudes hanging out in trenches with their Cold War era artillery pieces. Ukraine is not going to be “denazified” when both sides are sitting in trenches, WW1-style. The war simply lacks credibility as a serious attempt at achieving anything but a stalemate at this point. So logically, the aim of the war IS the stalemate. One can only wonder who benefits from that.
As to your question(s): I doubt the Russian generals are idiots, but they have an interest in keeping the conflict going, much like their 'adversary' in Ukraine.
Once we throw in Russia's 'pandemic preparedness' policies and the imminent launching of a 'digital ruble', many more questions emerge.
I suspect that Russia may not be pushing as fast and hard as necessary to avoid open 'engagement' from NATO, i.e., 'peacekeepers' in Western Ukraine, on top of everything else.
They can lose 300 000 (and that doesn't mean 300 000 killed, just out of action) and bring up 300 000 more, even if they have to use conscripts.
Ukraine can't.
And as for USUK plus their satellite states (Germany f.e.) the very thought of losing say 10 000 in one battle is so alien neither the military not the civilians or the politicians can fathom waging war on that scale; they have a home front to consider (elections) plus they lack the industrial infrastructure for total war.
So Ukraine gets to bleed and die while USUK and EUrope scrambles to re-indistrialise enough to be able to continue the proxy-war, all the while avoiding the issue of people not volunteering for service and the majority of potential 18 to 40 year olds being so frail of mind and body they are useless as soldiers. And unwilling.
Sweden's military released data the other day stating that 2/3s of female conscripts didn't make the cut, due to mental health issues, being too fat or in too poor shape or simply refusing (migrants especially refuse to do any kind military service, fewer than 10% will accept even if paid to do it).
USUK, other EU-provinces suffer from the same problem. Too few are willing to die for the capitalist globalists. And more and more are asking why we should go fight russians when our nations are full of negros and arabs basically waging low-intensity race war against us.
Hence, stalemate (from the West) is the best we can do; stalemate for the Russians is things proceeding as planned.
I cannot believe I am seeing WWI trench warfare in 2024 with drones chasing people, but more unbelievable is how everyone is just carrying on as normal as the fields are plowed with blood.
And we can watch it all in HD from our lounge rooms.
The people who are asleep and partying never expect it will happen to them.
Imagine this: there's poor soldiers using spades and shovels to combat the enemy. (As an aside, I've dug like 80cm deep last year when we added a small entrance and a laundry room to our house. Because it was a 'small job', no contractor was to be found, so I used a shovel. There's simply not too many people digging trenches, to say nothing about the lack of manpower and ammunition.
I think I can understand the sentiment of Ukrainian soldiers, but this is lunacy.
Oh, well, you know, Scott Ritter called Zelenskyy a CIA/western intel asset last year, and 'if' he's correct, Mr. Zelenskyy should hope for Noriega's fate, at best. There's many 'other' options, ranging from 'worse' to 'worst' beyond extradition, 'trial', and prison.
We'll find out how and where Mr. Zelenskyy ends up, but I'm quite sure it won't be pretty.
Given the US money laundering and investments through Ukraine over the past 10-20 years I have zero doubts that Zelensky is an asset. His every waking moment would be terrifying.
I have no idea why these people do this. Money does not seem attractive enough to me. Nor does power.
Well, I think there's a psycho-pathological personality at-work, material and other issues, and, perhaps most importantly, kompromat. I doubt Mr. Zelenskyy isn't blackmailed, which in his case reinforces certain pre-existing hatreds (not that I'm saying he is a Russophobe, remember, he grew up speaking Russian, but I do think he's play-acting the worst Bandera-style nationalism).
During WW1 as well as the US Civil War and the Napoleonic Wars, well-to-do bourgeoise people would go watch a battle from afar, using binoculars or small telescopes.
While having a picnic or a light lunch, weather permitting.
I don't think it's any sign of mental illness, it's just a sign of a class of people who never has been and never need fear being exposed to normal life or the consequences of their decisions (or the decisions of others of their class).
Akin to how 18th century poets of blue-blooded origin would extol the virtues of the peasantry working the land. Not that the noble poet himself would hoe a row for 12 hours, oh no.
I think your Bottom Lines are correct, except it may go on longer than some think. Perhaps the collapse will come quickly, but I think Russia is prepared to continue the war of attrition for a lot longer, and may have to to secure territories like Odessa, especially if Western support and AFU recruitment work out as well as they realistically can.
The long-timeframe possibility to me would be AFU disintegration really setting in by late next year, with the denouement in early 2026.
Well, if I'm the Russian leadership, my aim is to de-arm, as much as possible, my opponent. The longer the Ukrainian side begs for more stuff, some of which will be given to them, the better as this drains Western armouries.
Moreover, casualties like in WW2 are impossible, hence the Russian leadership won't do anything stupid in terms of mass attacks before they're sure it's gonna be a proverbial walk in the park, so to say.
You're therefore correct about the timeframe (which I didn't address above), but my intimation is based on more 'simple' issues: if Ukrainian troops are using 50+ year-old guns, it's only a matter of time before they run out of spares. 30+ years after the end of the Cold War, and more than two years into the hot phase of the conflict, even former Soviet bloc countries will, presumably, struggle to find that old supplies, such as gunsights, replacement barrels, and the like.
At this point, I think AFU disintegration is, first and foremost, contingent on the timetable of the Russian general staff and the territorial 'aims' espoused by the Kremlin.
If anything, there's no way the initiative will shift back to Ukraine.
To repeat what I told people in the swedish NAFO-sphere about a quarter into the war:
"Go read up on the Winter War."
First, USSR troops ran into finnish defences and got stuck. Then they dug in. Then they exchanged fire with the finns until the finns were becoming stretched too thin. Then they advanced and increased pressure everywhere until the finns had to sue for peace.
While this all happened and the finns and international volunteers fought bravely, the "international community" led by Britain and the US urged the finns to hold on, promising aid and soldiers to throw back the Soviets. Aid which never materialised beyond token support, for reasons of power balance between Britain, Germany, and the USSR.
While the background to the Winter War has nothing to do with the current situtation in Ukraine, the USUK-axis acts identical as they did then. Something that's been obvious since the start.
Here in Sweden, reporting on Ukraine is 100% to the tune of "they need more aid", "we must stop Putin before he takes over the world" and similar "insightful" opinions. And that's the experts in the MSM, the NAFO-crowd is so propagandistic they make the Kremlin propaganda appear balanced in comparison. Blogs with headlines stating "Massive russian casualties" day after day after day - if one of the more prominent and prolific ones is to be believed, Russia has lost close to 2 000 000 men.
And of course, any kind of discussion bringing up the background is shouted down with lots of pejoratives and slurs.
It’s 2024, and we’re back to WW1-style trench warfare. I find this a little odd, haven‘t we had 100+ years of evolution of «shock» warfare since then? Are the Russian generals idiots? Remember tanks? Blitzkrieg? «Achtung - panzer!»? Mechanized infantry? Complete air superiority and the operational freedom this brings? Combined arms? Was none of this curriculum at the general staff acamdemy in Moscow? The war-narrative is seriously losing credibility with every day that passes. Where are the massive tank formations? Supported by mechanized infantry with air support and artillery barrages? The whole war looks like a giant half-assed skirmish. Some old dudes hanging out in trenches with their Cold War era artillery pieces. Ukraine is not going to be “denazified” when both sides are sitting in trenches, WW1-style. The war simply lacks credibility as a serious attempt at achieving anything but a stalemate at this point. So logically, the aim of the war IS the stalemate. One can only wonder who benefits from that.
This sounds absurd, isn't it?
As to your question(s): I doubt the Russian generals are idiots, but they have an interest in keeping the conflict going, much like their 'adversary' in Ukraine.
Once we throw in Russia's 'pandemic preparedness' policies and the imminent launching of a 'digital ruble', many more questions emerge.
I suspect that Russia may not be pushing as fast and hard as necessary to avoid open 'engagement' from NATO, i.e., 'peacekeepers' in Western Ukraine, on top of everything else.
Attrition warfare, which Russia excels at.
They can lose 300 000 (and that doesn't mean 300 000 killed, just out of action) and bring up 300 000 more, even if they have to use conscripts.
Ukraine can't.
And as for USUK plus their satellite states (Germany f.e.) the very thought of losing say 10 000 in one battle is so alien neither the military not the civilians or the politicians can fathom waging war on that scale; they have a home front to consider (elections) plus they lack the industrial infrastructure for total war.
So Ukraine gets to bleed and die while USUK and EUrope scrambles to re-indistrialise enough to be able to continue the proxy-war, all the while avoiding the issue of people not volunteering for service and the majority of potential 18 to 40 year olds being so frail of mind and body they are useless as soldiers. And unwilling.
Sweden's military released data the other day stating that 2/3s of female conscripts didn't make the cut, due to mental health issues, being too fat or in too poor shape or simply refusing (migrants especially refuse to do any kind military service, fewer than 10% will accept even if paid to do it).
USUK, other EU-provinces suffer from the same problem. Too few are willing to die for the capitalist globalists. And more and more are asking why we should go fight russians when our nations are full of negros and arabs basically waging low-intensity race war against us.
Hence, stalemate (from the West) is the best we can do; stalemate for the Russians is things proceeding as planned.
I cannot believe I am seeing WWI trench warfare in 2024 with drones chasing people, but more unbelievable is how everyone is just carrying on as normal as the fields are plowed with blood.
And we can watch it all in HD from our lounge rooms.
The people who are asleep and partying never expect it will happen to them.
Esp. if one cares to remember that the Russians dug extensive trench lines with machines last summer:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/08/11/a-very-rare-combat-vehicle-just-appeared-in-southern-ukraine-a-high-speed-trench-digger/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2023/ukraine-russia-crimea-battle-trenches/
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/14/world/europe/russian-trench-fortifications-in-ukraine.html
Imagine this: there's poor soldiers using spades and shovels to combat the enemy. (As an aside, I've dug like 80cm deep last year when we added a small entrance and a laundry room to our house. Because it was a 'small job', no contractor was to be found, so I used a shovel. There's simply not too many people digging trenches, to say nothing about the lack of manpower and ammunition.
I think I can understand the sentiment of Ukrainian soldiers, but this is lunacy.
When Russia moved in my first thought was 'Zelensky better surrender immediately or hundreds of thousands will die.'
My second thought was 'Zelensky does not want to be assasinated by the CIA, so hundreds of thousands will die.'
Oh, well, you know, Scott Ritter called Zelenskyy a CIA/western intel asset last year, and 'if' he's correct, Mr. Zelenskyy should hope for Noriega's fate, at best. There's many 'other' options, ranging from 'worse' to 'worst' beyond extradition, 'trial', and prison.
We'll find out how and where Mr. Zelenskyy ends up, but I'm quite sure it won't be pretty.
Given the US money laundering and investments through Ukraine over the past 10-20 years I have zero doubts that Zelensky is an asset. His every waking moment would be terrifying.
I have no idea why these people do this. Money does not seem attractive enough to me. Nor does power.
Well, I think there's a psycho-pathological personality at-work, material and other issues, and, perhaps most importantly, kompromat. I doubt Mr. Zelenskyy isn't blackmailed, which in his case reinforces certain pre-existing hatreds (not that I'm saying he is a Russophobe, remember, he grew up speaking Russian, but I do think he's play-acting the worst Bandera-style nationalism).
During WW1 as well as the US Civil War and the Napoleonic Wars, well-to-do bourgeoise people would go watch a battle from afar, using binoculars or small telescopes.
While having a picnic or a light lunch, weather permitting.
I don't think it's any sign of mental illness, it's just a sign of a class of people who never has been and never need fear being exposed to normal life or the consequences of their decisions (or the decisions of others of their class).
Akin to how 18th century poets of blue-blooded origin would extol the virtues of the peasantry working the land. Not that the noble poet himself would hoe a row for 12 hours, oh no.
I see, so yes the UK & US cousins must drive on different sides of the road ;)
Hihi, sure, but do keep in mind that I'm neither British nor have I ever driven in the UK (it's too dangerous).
I think your Bottom Lines are correct, except it may go on longer than some think. Perhaps the collapse will come quickly, but I think Russia is prepared to continue the war of attrition for a lot longer, and may have to to secure territories like Odessa, especially if Western support and AFU recruitment work out as well as they realistically can.
The long-timeframe possibility to me would be AFU disintegration really setting in by late next year, with the denouement in early 2026.
Well, if I'm the Russian leadership, my aim is to de-arm, as much as possible, my opponent. The longer the Ukrainian side begs for more stuff, some of which will be given to them, the better as this drains Western armouries.
Moreover, casualties like in WW2 are impossible, hence the Russian leadership won't do anything stupid in terms of mass attacks before they're sure it's gonna be a proverbial walk in the park, so to say.
You're therefore correct about the timeframe (which I didn't address above), but my intimation is based on more 'simple' issues: if Ukrainian troops are using 50+ year-old guns, it's only a matter of time before they run out of spares. 30+ years after the end of the Cold War, and more than two years into the hot phase of the conflict, even former Soviet bloc countries will, presumably, struggle to find that old supplies, such as gunsights, replacement barrels, and the like.
At this point, I think AFU disintegration is, first and foremost, contingent on the timetable of the Russian general staff and the territorial 'aims' espoused by the Kremlin.
If anything, there's no way the initiative will shift back to Ukraine.
"Defense" not "defence".
Don't know if you want such notes (?)
Sure, but not that I learned UK spelling in school—and it stuck.
To repeat what I told people in the swedish NAFO-sphere about a quarter into the war:
"Go read up on the Winter War."
First, USSR troops ran into finnish defences and got stuck. Then they dug in. Then they exchanged fire with the finns until the finns were becoming stretched too thin. Then they advanced and increased pressure everywhere until the finns had to sue for peace.
While this all happened and the finns and international volunteers fought bravely, the "international community" led by Britain and the US urged the finns to hold on, promising aid and soldiers to throw back the Soviets. Aid which never materialised beyond token support, for reasons of power balance between Britain, Germany, and the USSR.
While the background to the Winter War has nothing to do with the current situtation in Ukraine, the USUK-axis acts identical as they did then. Something that's been obvious since the start.
Here in Sweden, reporting on Ukraine is 100% to the tune of "they need more aid", "we must stop Putin before he takes over the world" and similar "insightful" opinions. And that's the experts in the MSM, the NAFO-crowd is so propagandistic they make the Kremlin propaganda appear balanced in comparison. Blogs with headlines stating "Massive russian casualties" day after day after day - if one of the more prominent and prolific ones is to be believed, Russia has lost close to 2 000 000 men.
And of course, any kind of discussion bringing up the background is shouted down with lots of pejoratives and slurs.