NRK Went to the 'Eastern Front' in Ukraine

Looks like the fighting will be over soon, as 'soldiers use 50 year-old guns'

Translation, emphases, and bottom lines mine.

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At the Front in Ukraine: It’s All About Defence Now

By Kari Skeie (text) and Gunnar Bratthammer (photos), NRK, 29 March 2024 [source]

While desperately waiting for more weapons and ammunition, Ukrainian soldiers are digging new trenches along the entire front line. ‘We know the Russians are coming’, says soldier Valerij to NRK.

Caption: ‘DIGGING: soldier Olekseij digs a trench somewhere along the front in Donetsk, eastern Ukraine. The aim is to stop the Russian advance on the battlefield.’

The soldier Olekseij takes another hit with the spade. The soil is thrown up and to the side. Work on a new trench line will soon be finished.

For the forces at the front in eastern Ukraine, it is no longer about attacking, but defending.

‘We must prepare and be ready. There will be an attack and then the trenches must be ready. The soldiers will find protection here’, says Valerij.

The soldiers of Brigade 31 are stationed at the front line in Donetsk Oblast.

In the flat, open landscape, the sound of war is heard. Explosions and drones. The ground is full of holes from shelling.

At regular intervals, the soldiers seek refuge in small pockets in the trench. They never know if the Russian drones are monitoring or attacking.

The soldiers have been digging for two weeks with their lives at stake. ‘It has been close on several occasions’, says another soldier named Valerij.

The area is under constant attack. We need more trenches to prevent the Russian occupiers from moving closer.

Reinforces the Entire Front

Today, the Russian forces are barely two kilometres away. Slowly but surely, the enemy has steadily gained new ground.

Not far away is the town of Marjinka, which the Russians took control of last December. Now, the enemy must be stopped.

But it is not only in this area that the situation is difficult. Along large sectors of the 100-mile-long front, Ukrainian soldiers are now digging new defence lines.

Russia on the Offensive

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj earlier in March ordered the construction of new defence works. A total of 2,000 kilometres are under construction, according to the Kyiv Independent.

The Russians have been on the offensive since before Christmas [ever heard about that in legacy media?]

Earlier in March, Russia claimed it took control of the village of Orlivka in Donetsk. The village is not far from Avdiivka, from which the Ukrainians withdrew in February.

It was the biggest victory by the Russian side in a year.

Caption: ‘GRENADE: the soldiers fire at Russian positions with the more than 50-year-old Soviet artillery system D-30.’

A couple of weeks ago, Chief of Ukraine’s General Staff, Oleksandr Syrskyj, visited two brigades at the front in Donetsk.

‘The situation on the battlefield is difficult. Russian forces may be ready to attack deep into the Ukrainian defense lines in Donetsk’, Syrskyj said.

‘The War Demands its Pound of Flesh’

While fellow soldiers create new defensive lines, soldier Mykola follows the enemy's movements. From a hiding place under the ground, he looks at images from several surveillance drones in the area.

‘Look!’, he says, pointing to the screen. The small movement is a Russian soldier emerging from a trench:

We must prevent the Russians from moving forward. Our task is to attack before they attack us.

While Mykola explains and shows us, there is a loud bang outside. After two years in the war, the 33-year-old no longer reacts to the sound.

‘You get so used to this that you stop reacting. I would say that the war swallows you whole. It stays with you’, says Mykola.

Critical Shortages of Ammunition

Above the ground, his fellow soldiers get ready to fire at the Russian positions.

‘We will fire at the enemy’s infantry positions. The enemy is hiding there’, says the soldier Vlad.

But never before in the war have they had to be so careful about using ammunition. Before they fire, the ammunition is carefully counted. They have been ordered to use only one artillery shell [this looks supremely bad for the defenders].

There is a critical shortages of ammunition along the Ukrainian side of the front.

So far this year, the Russians have been able to fire seven times as many shells as Ukraine, according to the Ukrainian Defence Ministry [it’s likely way worse].

Russia Prepares its Summer Offensive

While Russia has received supplies from, among others, North Korea, the situation is different for Ukraine.

Arms aid from the US has more or less stopped because Republican politicians say no to more support for Ukraine.

The EU has promised Ukraine 1 million artillery shells by the end of March, but has only managed to deliver just over half.

Ukraine also claims that Russia is mobilising another 100,000 soldiers who could be deployed in a summer offensive [no evidence is cited].

‘It does not necessarily have to be an offensive, perhaps the soldiers will only fill up for units that have been greatly reduced during the war. But it is possible that at the start of the summer we will see detachments that show offensive intent’, said Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavljuk last week.

The soldiers in Brigade 31 say the situation is tough:

‘We need much more ammunition. It is not enough. We try to use the one we have more accurately, but sometimes we don't have enough ammunition to fight’, says Vlad.

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Bottom Lines

This looks and reads quite bad for Ukraine.

Fighting doesn’t just require willpower and stamina, but, above all, modern wars require copious amounts of bullets and shells, to say nothing about the hardware to fire.

Judging from what is shown, it may be over for Ukraine before too long.

There’s a chance that this is all a ruse and a carefully staged agit-prop show to make Western government’s and in particular NATO to commit ground forces to Ukraine.

Given the quite long-ish mobilisation tables, insufficient infrastructure in the former Soviet bloc (can’t find the link now, but by and large Soviet hardware is lighter, relatively speaking, than NATO armour, hence Eastern European bridges and highways aren’t really up to moving heavy equipment fast), and the generally light, if highly mobile and/or airborne Western contingents (which are very vulnerable to anti-aircraft fire and Russian combined arms attacks), adding such NATO forces will result in casualties, not a change in the dynamics of the war.

This all happens before we take into account that Russian troops are quite battle-hardened by now while NATO forces are woefully unprepared for such an enemy. Fighting ‘insurgents’ in Afghanistan or Iraq, equipped with technically full air superiority, is very different from the fighting in Ukraine.

Let’s hope sanity prevails. At this point, though, that butterfly that eventually flew out of Pandora’s box is literally all we’ve got left.