'In 2025, the fertility rate among immigrant women was 1.44, which was lower than the overall fertility rate in Norway for the first time.' ∽ Karstein Sørlien, Statistics Norway, 12 March 2026
The solution is already underway, with Spain leading the charge and Sweden among others opening the door to infinte Indians. I don't know if there's a fancy "Someone's Law"-name for it, but politics when failing always invites doing what doesn't work even more and harder for as long as possible. Just look at Germany's "Energie-elände".
Or Sweden's insane asylum-tax system.
However, lowered reproduction rate among migrants is the interesting thing here. If 2nd gen women also have under 2.0 reproduction numbers and become mothers late, then there is a chance for actual assimilation/integration, and a slow reversion towards normality over time.
The key there would be hammering a wedge between the 2nd and subsequent generations and their home nations (shuttering mosques and ban migrant schools would go a long way towards this, as would forcibly breaking up the ghettos).
But comparing 2025 to 2024 and essentially saying: "Look! Things are shifting for the better because we can see a 0.04 increase!" is embarassing. Why wouldn't the official or the journalist include a graph showing data at twenty-year intervals? Statistics Norway has data from 1905 onwards I'm betting, and could provide a chart showing fertility rates from 1905 to 2025 if asked to. And even better, they could do so while creating a lot of sub-scharts: regional, age, origin, income & education (the dreaded class-concept), the difference between family-lines when it comes to migration to USA in the 1800s vs families with no such migrants, age of fathers, vaccine-status, et cetera.
Heck, they could create an AI-assisted homepage where you simply feed it a search-string and it puts together what it can find from official records:
"No. children per woman, age 20-25 at first births, smokers, compared to same question but non-smokers" for example.
It's a shame people who need data to do their job seem so bent on not creating as comprehensive data-sets as they can.
Agreed on most aspects (esp. the Statistics Norway quip, which also holds for the Institute of Public Health: they have reams of data, but the framing of their questions™ is, above all, political™ and hence useless).
As to the solutions, well, I'm unsure if the forceful breaking up stuff is possible: not only are security forces quite weak, and the main dividing line I envision is perhaps those with families (children) vs. those without them, incl. separate tax régimes (higher taxes for childless consumers™ of welfare services™), as even the less assimilated recent arrivals who came because they don't want to live in shithole countries have a vested interest.
My hunch is that this 'breaking up of the ghettos' won't be done; what will be done is a kind of (Latin) Americanisation, that is, gated communities, no-go zones that will be permitted to decay, which serves as incentive™ for the hoi polloi to congregate in 15-minute cities, sold not so much because climate™ but to keep everybody safe (controlled) etc. Needless to say, this won't work as, at some point, a share of the populace will inevitably realise that there are other cross-sections of society that share certain interests--the perfect breeding ground for a (social) upheaval.
The solution is already underway, with Spain leading the charge and Sweden among others opening the door to infinte Indians. I don't know if there's a fancy "Someone's Law"-name for it, but politics when failing always invites doing what doesn't work even more and harder for as long as possible. Just look at Germany's "Energie-elände".
Or Sweden's insane asylum-tax system.
However, lowered reproduction rate among migrants is the interesting thing here. If 2nd gen women also have under 2.0 reproduction numbers and become mothers late, then there is a chance for actual assimilation/integration, and a slow reversion towards normality over time.
The key there would be hammering a wedge between the 2nd and subsequent generations and their home nations (shuttering mosques and ban migrant schools would go a long way towards this, as would forcibly breaking up the ghettos).
But comparing 2025 to 2024 and essentially saying: "Look! Things are shifting for the better because we can see a 0.04 increase!" is embarassing. Why wouldn't the official or the journalist include a graph showing data at twenty-year intervals? Statistics Norway has data from 1905 onwards I'm betting, and could provide a chart showing fertility rates from 1905 to 2025 if asked to. And even better, they could do so while creating a lot of sub-scharts: regional, age, origin, income & education (the dreaded class-concept), the difference between family-lines when it comes to migration to USA in the 1800s vs families with no such migrants, age of fathers, vaccine-status, et cetera.
Heck, they could create an AI-assisted homepage where you simply feed it a search-string and it puts together what it can find from official records:
"No. children per woman, age 20-25 at first births, smokers, compared to same question but non-smokers" for example.
It's a shame people who need data to do their job seem so bent on not creating as comprehensive data-sets as they can.
Agreed on most aspects (esp. the Statistics Norway quip, which also holds for the Institute of Public Health: they have reams of data, but the framing of their questions™ is, above all, political™ and hence useless).
As an aside, but I'm sure you saw this, Norway has pretty decent inflation stats going back all the way to 1876: https://fackel.substack.com/p/war-on-cash-norway-to-scrap-1000
As to the solutions, well, I'm unsure if the forceful breaking up stuff is possible: not only are security forces quite weak, and the main dividing line I envision is perhaps those with families (children) vs. those without them, incl. separate tax régimes (higher taxes for childless consumers™ of welfare services™), as even the less assimilated recent arrivals who came because they don't want to live in shithole countries have a vested interest.
My hunch is that this 'breaking up of the ghettos' won't be done; what will be done is a kind of (Latin) Americanisation, that is, gated communities, no-go zones that will be permitted to decay, which serves as incentive™ for the hoi polloi to congregate in 15-minute cities, sold not so much because climate™ but to keep everybody safe (controlled) etc. Needless to say, this won't work as, at some point, a share of the populace will inevitably realise that there are other cross-sections of society that share certain interests--the perfect breeding ground for a (social) upheaval.
Brings to mind the Mice Utopia study by Calhoon.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/this-old-experiment-with-mice-led-to-bleak-predictions-for-humanitys-future-180954423/
Yeah, I've been thinking about that for quite some time now, and I frankly don't see how this ends for mankind (other than quite likely very unwell).