4 macro trends to watch for in the next years as Europeans enter the twilight zone of energy shortages and the consequences of foreign adventurism next door
"More centralisation, which also means enormously increasing administrative overhead costs."
Absoluely. For swedish governement agencies, wages and locales and assorted logistics make up 40% to 60% of budget; the variance depends partly on which agency but also on what level one observes it. The base problem is that instead of the older system, where the state owned the office of an agency, agnecies now rent their locales from either local private property companies or from local municipal council facility companies - the latter a hybridised version between public and privately owned, meaning the swedish FOIA is not applicable to the wheelings and dealings of said companies as it only applies to governement/state and municipal entities.
And lo and behold, the boards of said companies are almost exclusively made up out of politicians and their families. It is very telling that no party wants to reform this system. The EU is just a larger scale such, really.
"Bigger, and fewer, mega corporations running everything."
Yes. This is what "You will own nothing, and you will be happy" refers to. You will not be allowed to own anything, because all "purchasing" contracts will stipulate that what you pay is a user's fee or rent. The product never ever actually becomes yours. The (online) gaming industry was possibly the first out the gate with this, 20 years ago meaning that everyone under the age of 40 is already well conditioned to think it normal that the provider can shut off service or repossess an object "for violation of end-user license agreement".
The next step is anything you create using a rented tool becomes the property of the one owning the IP (or other term depending on case), meaning you will be forbidden to use it for personal profit, business or anything else unless the proper fee is paid. (If you listen closely, you can hear all the Randian fanboys and liberetardians whining that it isn't 'real' objectivism and capitalism...)
"Supply shocks", mhh. Whatever form it takes, it will be one that is maximally time-consuming and logistically difficult for anyone not living in an apartment block. Stacking people in boxes, in some kind of termite stahl-scraper is economically rational and efficient, if you measure efficiency in money (which is a rather stupid way of doing it, if it's the only measure). Armed guards will be needed, and the families of guards will be given better living conditions than serfs, otherwise why bother? Also, in Europe just as in the US, racial segregation of the guards will become necessary so that any racial group of guards can be used against any other, making unified action impossible. The nationalist revolutions of the 19th century still frightens the ruling classes after all, and as their only loyalties are power and money, they don't care at all what race, culture or other makes up their classes of consumer-serfs.
For item four, just look at Sweden. Ever-increasing taxes, regulations and rules and fees have been continously used since the 1960s to force people to move into the cities. The shutting down of hospitals and other public resources and welfare (such as schools) means few people of child bearing age moves to such places, meaning the governement can further shut down what service there is seeing as there's declining demand, and round and a'round it goes.
The end goal, originally, was to have the countryside as a pure resource-colony with small outposts only manned by those employed in extraction and delivery of resources. All the people would live in 5 to 10 major population centers linked by maglev or air, but not by highways. Roads woul only be for police, military and those employed by the state in sectors needing vehicles for transport. The cities would be laid out as wheels if seen from above, all state functions in the center with the spokes being public transport to and from local centers out on the rim and the slices in between being industry and such.
The EU reminds me very much of this, in that it is deemed intrinsically and objectively good, and no actual reality-connected measures are used, only political ones.
Ha, the (online) computer game analogy is perfect--because it's true, thanks for adding that example. Same goes, I'd add, for 'remote' instruction via commercial apps and products (iPads, ChromePads, and the like), for it further drives home--conditions--children and adolescents to these 'subscription-based' facets of life.
re your supply shock paragr.: you know, I'm with you on this one, as in there is an economic-organisational argument for ever-greater urbanisation for the reasons you mentioned. Thing is, control during 'normal' times becomes easier as people tend to be moving along more or less conforming to much, if not anything, in terms of 'recommendations', nudging, or enforced rules. Once there are 'problems', though, concentrated populations become a big problem to enfore anything, in addition to issues relating to what you (also correctly, I'd add) call 'segregation' along whatever lines for control reasons, which also allows the gov't to play one area (banlieu) vs. the other.
In terms of individualism, freedom, and personal choices, well, I think the more the better--if people wish to live in sprawling, rapidly growing urban megalopoleis, well, be my guest. I'd rather not, but I can also see the (so far absence of) careful management towards these futures by way of 'infrastructure corridors' alongside traffic and other connections between various places.
Also, I doubt there's much, if any, planning going into these issues as virtually everything that makes the wheels of finance move--esp. mortgage and other commercial loans--are dependent on customers. Take, say, waterfront properties, which are the most expensive ones, and factor in sea-level changes, and ponder the catastrophic consequences for mortgage lenders, if these are actually factored in (some Republican municipalities in the US have, in part therefore, banned 'climate change' legislatively)…there will be no 'soft landing' whatsoever.
That's not how humanity rolls. There will only be mistakes whose consequences are exacerbated by subsequent action, however well-intentioned these might be (e.g., electricity subsidiesby the gov't). In the end, there will be a crash, huge financial losses in the stock markets, which will destroy much of the accrued fake (paper) wealth. Speaking of the latter, well, it's not 'real', i.e., tangible, and there's also another hidden problem associatd with any financial crisis: if you cry 'help the mortgate-owners by making the banks eat the differences between the value-on-paper vs. the value-as-is, well, your mortgage liability is the bank's asset, and it doesn't take an advance degree in, say, rocket science to understand that these two must co-exist.
There are no solutions but to eventually let go of broken institutions and systems. The only question until the realisation of this simple fact of life is this: how much good money will we thrown after the bad investments that we've made?
Dear Epimetheus, txs for the interesting post, but then what? Insurrection? By who? Few of us that are getting more and more mad about them? In Italy there are the Election in 30 days time, but all of politicians and their parties declared their love to be sodomized by United Criminals of America and EU Commission...
As Caitlin wrote, Propaganda is determining people's will and thoughts.
But on the other side, I'd have added to your trends a fifth one: a coming civil war in Europe.
BTW recent facts, if watched with open eyes clealrly tell us from how long United Criminals of America have planned fake news and propaganda, at least since 1960 right after their real soul show up with mcCarthyism!
That is a good question, you mention, my friend--alas, I wish I had an answer (but then again, that would merely exchange the current version of how things are with my version).
As to the civil war, well, I'll probably write something about this a bit later, but the short version is this: 'war' is a clearly defined state of affairs, which hasn't existed since WW2. From a legal-positivistic point of view, there were no 'wars' (as in intra-state conflicts) since 1945, hence all conflicts must be something else, right?
So, we must therefore think about a definition of 'civil war', which I'd propose are things that involve oganised violence perpetrated by both state and non-state actors or factions. And that is kinda everything and anything, so it's not too helpful either: which factions or the like do you see fighting this out?
But problem here once again is how we get rid of yankees in Europe. I translated an article form an american Professor, Economy at Columbia University and he went straight to the point: 30 years of Neocon have made the situation worst! And Biden governament is filled with Neocons... But americans are too stupid to understand that and accept that, that they play Leftist game from Republican side, when they know exactly that republicans have voted with Biden 9 out of 10 times... And if you go back checking were Neocons come from you'll go through american history since end of 1800...
So, my point on civil war, was to extreme the concept: we must fight americans and american political prostitutes that are here in EU. We need to kick them out from EU Commission and kick them out from EU.
If Eu does exactly what US wants and we're paying cash (!) and with life (covid&vax) for those EU political prostitutes that love to be sodomized by USA, I mean , Europeans are just a bunch of idiots that love to be sodomized as their politician do! Don't see any other explanation/solution
With a lot of luck some of you can replace the current villainy. Not sure how much longer you can make this particular civilization last though.
At least there are a few aspen trees growing, oh, and grass is edible for humans, you might need to use it, the last recent picture I saw of that country there were only stumps.
You have elements of Austrian Economics ideas within your essays, in which case such information shows this collapse is inevitable, this monetary experiments has been stretched farther than ever before, the resulting adjustment being harsher than ever before. But I know nothing!
You know, the biggest problem I see isn't that change will come (it's inevitable), but that--much like with the Covid injectables--even if you'd like to 'opt out' of this entire megalomaniac 'system', it's highly likely that 'they' won't let you, if only to prove to the (majority) of inmates who holds power.
As to the Austrian Economics ideas, well, not all is bad, eh? Much like with with everything else, I'm an issues person, not an ideological fanatic. If I think something is worthwhile pondering, I go for it, and I don't care who proposed it--and the example I gave (utility subsidies) is an apt one, I'd argue, for it won't change anything: high prices will not be disincentivised by gov't subsidies as utility companies know now that they can charge virtually anything and the gov't will pay while at the same time the subsidy also prevents people from protesting for a substantial change like, e.g., konsesjonskraft = domestic prices equal production while export prices are 'market-driven', much like oil-rich emirates subsidise their own people with cheap energy and sell oil expensively abroad.
All hierarchies collapse, you are well-worded to describe the ongoing debasement - of everything.
Not many want to read and contemplate on the book Collapse of Complex Societies. One time i was participating in a show to sell solar domestic water heaters and a young man came up to me angry, he told me he had children to raise and this system didn't need any of what I'm selling. Even the idea of preparing hurts most as it would be an admission this system won't get richer/easier continuing to perform without flaws
I used to comment on his blog but he gave me a warning, something about using metaphors, it was, oh yeah, I hyphenated purposely misspelled Is-real.
He is in the same trap as everyone, EVERYONE, its an all or nothing choice.
I first installed a solar domestic water heater on the house I live in, as is all that I describe below, the only part that wears out on the water heater is the pump on the drain-back system, but I doubt it will fail during my lifetime. I don't remember exactly but upwards of 70-80% efficient. This is the best unit as it provides the same of the hot water we use. Back then it was around 10 grand out of pocket.
The solar air heater was next, lower efficiently in transferring the sun's energy into the house, but still effective. These are commercial panels that provides 15-20% of heating, I actually divert the heat into the basement this time of the year to warm up the brick walls, I don't take scientific notations but think this warmth lasts through a few weeks in fall when the furnace would otherwise turn on. it was a few grand more because no subsidies. The only moving part is am electric blower.
Then I did a solar electric system but the minimum, just enough to operate the freezer in the summer and the fans on the natgas, solar heater, and woodstove in the winter, this system paired with nickel iron batteries that last 100 years. More money yet because of the batteries no subsidy. its a small system the controller is $800. This year is year 14 with no issues other than I forget to fill the battery reservoirs with distilled water once and awhile. I would probably go with lithium if I had it all over to do.
The issue is not replacing parts when they fail.
The question is what happens when there is no natgas or electricity? Or what happens when whatever furnace you are using now needs a new part? Whine like Kunstler? Look, he made the wrong choice, he is not that smart.
Because of my experiences hawking solar heating I totally understand the idiots, they want systems that provide free energy. These systems do not produce enough to investors to siphon the surplus, can not be centralized, and should not be designed to produce everything modern man now uses.
The application should be directly with the user, as a supplement that can operate on its own, for when the system fails as in intermittent power or complete shutdown (for whatever reason).
As an aside I am out of this game and will never return. The people who bought in because of my salesmanship are quite happy now as the prices for fuel continue to increase. The one tactic I used to sell over 100 units that had the most resonance is buying one of these units is like locking in the price of fuel for as long as it lasts. Some of them are 15 years old now and as long as some parts that fail are replaced they ought to last over 50 years - but with diminishing returns as the panels wear out.
The question is what happens when there is no natgas or electricity? Or what happens when whatever furnace you are using now needs a new part? Whine like Kunstler? Look, he made the wrong choice, he is not that smart.
Because of my experiences hawking solar heating I totally understand the idiots, they want systems that provide free energy. These systems do not produce enough to investors to siphon the surplus, can not be centralized, and should not be designed to produce everything modern man now uses.
The application should be directly with the user, as a supplement that can operate on its own, for when the system fails as in intermittent power or complete shutdown (for whatever reason).
As an aside I am out of this game and will never return. The people who bought in because of my salesmanship are quite happy now as the prices for fuel continue to increase. The one tactic I used to sell over 100 units that had the most resonance is buying one of these units is like locking in the price of fuel for as long as it lasts. Some of them are 15 years old now and as long as some parts that fail are replaced they ought to last over 50 years - but with diminishing returns as the panels wear out.
Elymus repens (kvickrot in swedish, meaning living root), called 'couch grass' by Wikipedia is not only edible but a rather good source of carbohydrates, and the seeds when dried and ground can be mixed with regular flour. Best part is the actual root though - it contains more carbohydrates by weight than commercial brands of sugar beets.
Rinse, chop and simmer to extract the carbohydrates leaving a syrup-like fluid. Eating the actual root or grass is not recommended due to it containing inulin, which cannot be digested and gives you gas like you wouldn't believe.
Good post. Not much to disagree with. One big question, though, is just how much longer the EU will survive. These things are difficult to predict, but don't be surprised if, come winter, it's each country for itself all over again. (I say "again" because we saw this recently, with the COVID juice. Sure, you and I and most of your readers refused the juice, but that's beside the point.) Some European countries may decide to imitate Hungary and defy Brussels by negotiating directly with Moscow. Mr. Putin may decide to be generous to such countries, in order to undermine European unity (and that may work very well for him, actually).
I think you're right about the Putin-as-divider notion, but I'd rather think about it as Russia being the catalyst, i.e., that these divisions were there already, but the crisis makes them come to the fore (and, let's face it, there are substantial divisions between, say, rainbow flag-toting western Europeans vs. their slightly moder 'traditional' eastern European peers, eh), hence: let's not blame the messenger, so to speak.
As to the continued existence of the EU/EEC, well, I think it won't go away anytime soon (even though I'd prefer that), but then again, some alignment in regulatory and practical terms is fine: sockets, mutual recognition of credentials etc.
I do think the EU/EEC will continue to exist, albeit its influece over esp. regional and local affairs will wither quite substantially. Much like the ancient Roman empire, the EU/EEC will perhaps even be something that's on the mind of peoples well beyond its 'official' demise.
You know, one of the weirder things of the EU is that it's kinda hard to get in, but it's even harder, if not outright impossible, to get out, to say nothing about ending the EU. Have you ever contemplated that the EU treaties are thousands of pages long and that virtually every single public and private player has lobbying groups in Brussels? There's so many stakeholders that it's quite likely that the 'superstructure' (forgive me the crude Marxian term here) will nominally exist for decades even though it will probably lose much, if not all, its meaning in everyday life.
As I see it, Mr. Putin is the President of the Russian Federation. Thus, his job is to advance the interests of the Russian Federation to the best of his ability. Sowing (or exacerbating) division in the EU may indeed be in the interests of the Russian Federation. I see little point in being mad about it. While we're at it, Mr. Biden (or whoever is actually doing his job at the moment) has analogous goals, so there isn't all that much point in Europeans being mad at the Americans, either. The problem is that Europe's politicians are either corrupt or morons (not that these two are mutually exclusive), unable and/or unwilling to advance the interests of the countries that they supposedly lead. Let's not even talk about the union as a whole. So, here we are.
The EU is just a giant bureaucracy. Far more powerful empires have collapsed, and piles of paper that no-one reads or understands are no obstacle to collapse. But sure, it's possible that the EU will simply be forgotten about, without formal disintegration.
Speaking of which, I disagree about this: "Much like the ancient Roman empire, the EU/EEC will perhaps even be something that's on the mind of peoples well beyond its 'official' demise." So far, the EU has existed for less than a century, and it's already in deep doodoo. A hundred years from now, it's likely to be relegated to brief (and eminently forgettable) chapters in high school history textbooks. Most people will be blissfully unware that the thing ever existed.
I'm with you on the first paragraph, have no objections on the second, but I'd like to clarify what you criticise in the third paragr.: I didn't mean to compare ancient Rome and the EU, and your criticism is well taken--I only meant it by way of analogy. People weren't that affected by the end of Rome, formally speaking, because they couldn't care less. One day, they learned it was no more and that was it.
As you said: "A hundred years from now, it's likely to be relegated to brief (and eminently forgettable) chapters in high school history textbooks. Most people will be blissfully unware that the thing ever existed."
We should keep the memory alive, though, if only as a teachable moment.
Quick reactions:
"More centralisation, which also means enormously increasing administrative overhead costs."
Absoluely. For swedish governement agencies, wages and locales and assorted logistics make up 40% to 60% of budget; the variance depends partly on which agency but also on what level one observes it. The base problem is that instead of the older system, where the state owned the office of an agency, agnecies now rent their locales from either local private property companies or from local municipal council facility companies - the latter a hybridised version between public and privately owned, meaning the swedish FOIA is not applicable to the wheelings and dealings of said companies as it only applies to governement/state and municipal entities.
And lo and behold, the boards of said companies are almost exclusively made up out of politicians and their families. It is very telling that no party wants to reform this system. The EU is just a larger scale such, really.
"Bigger, and fewer, mega corporations running everything."
Yes. This is what "You will own nothing, and you will be happy" refers to. You will not be allowed to own anything, because all "purchasing" contracts will stipulate that what you pay is a user's fee or rent. The product never ever actually becomes yours. The (online) gaming industry was possibly the first out the gate with this, 20 years ago meaning that everyone under the age of 40 is already well conditioned to think it normal that the provider can shut off service or repossess an object "for violation of end-user license agreement".
The next step is anything you create using a rented tool becomes the property of the one owning the IP (or other term depending on case), meaning you will be forbidden to use it for personal profit, business or anything else unless the proper fee is paid. (If you listen closely, you can hear all the Randian fanboys and liberetardians whining that it isn't 'real' objectivism and capitalism...)
"Supply shocks", mhh. Whatever form it takes, it will be one that is maximally time-consuming and logistically difficult for anyone not living in an apartment block. Stacking people in boxes, in some kind of termite stahl-scraper is economically rational and efficient, if you measure efficiency in money (which is a rather stupid way of doing it, if it's the only measure). Armed guards will be needed, and the families of guards will be given better living conditions than serfs, otherwise why bother? Also, in Europe just as in the US, racial segregation of the guards will become necessary so that any racial group of guards can be used against any other, making unified action impossible. The nationalist revolutions of the 19th century still frightens the ruling classes after all, and as their only loyalties are power and money, they don't care at all what race, culture or other makes up their classes of consumer-serfs.
For item four, just look at Sweden. Ever-increasing taxes, regulations and rules and fees have been continously used since the 1960s to force people to move into the cities. The shutting down of hospitals and other public resources and welfare (such as schools) means few people of child bearing age moves to such places, meaning the governement can further shut down what service there is seeing as there's declining demand, and round and a'round it goes.
The end goal, originally, was to have the countryside as a pure resource-colony with small outposts only manned by those employed in extraction and delivery of resources. All the people would live in 5 to 10 major population centers linked by maglev or air, but not by highways. Roads woul only be for police, military and those employed by the state in sectors needing vehicles for transport. The cities would be laid out as wheels if seen from above, all state functions in the center with the spokes being public transport to and from local centers out on the rim and the slices in between being industry and such.
The EU reminds me very much of this, in that it is deemed intrinsically and objectively good, and no actual reality-connected measures are used, only political ones.
Ha, the (online) computer game analogy is perfect--because it's true, thanks for adding that example. Same goes, I'd add, for 'remote' instruction via commercial apps and products (iPads, ChromePads, and the like), for it further drives home--conditions--children and adolescents to these 'subscription-based' facets of life.
re your supply shock paragr.: you know, I'm with you on this one, as in there is an economic-organisational argument for ever-greater urbanisation for the reasons you mentioned. Thing is, control during 'normal' times becomes easier as people tend to be moving along more or less conforming to much, if not anything, in terms of 'recommendations', nudging, or enforced rules. Once there are 'problems', though, concentrated populations become a big problem to enfore anything, in addition to issues relating to what you (also correctly, I'd add) call 'segregation' along whatever lines for control reasons, which also allows the gov't to play one area (banlieu) vs. the other.
In terms of individualism, freedom, and personal choices, well, I think the more the better--if people wish to live in sprawling, rapidly growing urban megalopoleis, well, be my guest. I'd rather not, but I can also see the (so far absence of) careful management towards these futures by way of 'infrastructure corridors' alongside traffic and other connections between various places.
Also, I doubt there's much, if any, planning going into these issues as virtually everything that makes the wheels of finance move--esp. mortgage and other commercial loans--are dependent on customers. Take, say, waterfront properties, which are the most expensive ones, and factor in sea-level changes, and ponder the catastrophic consequences for mortgage lenders, if these are actually factored in (some Republican municipalities in the US have, in part therefore, banned 'climate change' legislatively)…there will be no 'soft landing' whatsoever.
That's not how humanity rolls. There will only be mistakes whose consequences are exacerbated by subsequent action, however well-intentioned these might be (e.g., electricity subsidiesby the gov't). In the end, there will be a crash, huge financial losses in the stock markets, which will destroy much of the accrued fake (paper) wealth. Speaking of the latter, well, it's not 'real', i.e., tangible, and there's also another hidden problem associatd with any financial crisis: if you cry 'help the mortgate-owners by making the banks eat the differences between the value-on-paper vs. the value-as-is, well, your mortgage liability is the bank's asset, and it doesn't take an advance degree in, say, rocket science to understand that these two must co-exist.
There are no solutions but to eventually let go of broken institutions and systems. The only question until the realisation of this simple fact of life is this: how much good money will we thrown after the bad investments that we've made?
Dear Epimetheus, txs for the interesting post, but then what? Insurrection? By who? Few of us that are getting more and more mad about them? In Italy there are the Election in 30 days time, but all of politicians and their parties declared their love to be sodomized by United Criminals of America and EU Commission...
As Caitlin wrote, Propaganda is determining people's will and thoughts.
But on the other side, I'd have added to your trends a fifth one: a coming civil war in Europe.
BTW recent facts, if watched with open eyes clealrly tell us from how long United Criminals of America have planned fake news and propaganda, at least since 1960 right after their real soul show up with mcCarthyism!
That is a good question, you mention, my friend--alas, I wish I had an answer (but then again, that would merely exchange the current version of how things are with my version).
As to the civil war, well, I'll probably write something about this a bit later, but the short version is this: 'war' is a clearly defined state of affairs, which hasn't existed since WW2. From a legal-positivistic point of view, there were no 'wars' (as in intra-state conflicts) since 1945, hence all conflicts must be something else, right?
So, we must therefore think about a definition of 'civil war', which I'd propose are things that involve oganised violence perpetrated by both state and non-state actors or factions. And that is kinda everything and anything, so it's not too helpful either: which factions or the like do you see fighting this out?
They call "riots" in english...
But problem here once again is how we get rid of yankees in Europe. I translated an article form an american Professor, Economy at Columbia University and he went straight to the point: 30 years of Neocon have made the situation worst! And Biden governament is filled with Neocons... But americans are too stupid to understand that and accept that, that they play Leftist game from Republican side, when they know exactly that republicans have voted with Biden 9 out of 10 times... And if you go back checking were Neocons come from you'll go through american history since end of 1800...
So, my point on civil war, was to extreme the concept: we must fight americans and american political prostitutes that are here in EU. We need to kick them out from EU Commission and kick them out from EU.
If Eu does exactly what US wants and we're paying cash (!) and with life (covid&vax) for those EU political prostitutes that love to be sodomized by USA, I mean , Europeans are just a bunch of idiots that love to be sodomized as their politician do! Don't see any other explanation/solution
With a lot of luck some of you can replace the current villainy. Not sure how much longer you can make this particular civilization last though.
At least there are a few aspen trees growing, oh, and grass is edible for humans, you might need to use it, the last recent picture I saw of that country there were only stumps.
You have elements of Austrian Economics ideas within your essays, in which case such information shows this collapse is inevitable, this monetary experiments has been stretched farther than ever before, the resulting adjustment being harsher than ever before. But I know nothing!
Prepare yourselves!
You know, the biggest problem I see isn't that change will come (it's inevitable), but that--much like with the Covid injectables--even if you'd like to 'opt out' of this entire megalomaniac 'system', it's highly likely that 'they' won't let you, if only to prove to the (majority) of inmates who holds power.
As to the Austrian Economics ideas, well, not all is bad, eh? Much like with with everything else, I'm an issues person, not an ideological fanatic. If I think something is worthwhile pondering, I go for it, and I don't care who proposed it--and the example I gave (utility subsidies) is an apt one, I'd argue, for it won't change anything: high prices will not be disincentivised by gov't subsidies as utility companies know now that they can charge virtually anything and the gov't will pay while at the same time the subsidy also prevents people from protesting for a substantial change like, e.g., konsesjonskraft = domestic prices equal production while export prices are 'market-driven', much like oil-rich emirates subsidise their own people with cheap energy and sell oil expensively abroad.
Yet--being prepared is always a good idea.
All hierarchies collapse, you are well-worded to describe the ongoing debasement - of everything.
Not many want to read and contemplate on the book Collapse of Complex Societies. One time i was participating in a show to sell solar domestic water heaters and a young man came up to me angry, he told me he had children to raise and this system didn't need any of what I'm selling. Even the idea of preparing hurts most as it would be an admission this system won't get richer/easier continuing to perform without flaws
As a reaction to the solar panel story: have you seen this here:
https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/its-not-working/
I used to comment on his blog but he gave me a warning, something about using metaphors, it was, oh yeah, I hyphenated purposely misspelled Is-real.
He is in the same trap as everyone, EVERYONE, its an all or nothing choice.
I first installed a solar domestic water heater on the house I live in, as is all that I describe below, the only part that wears out on the water heater is the pump on the drain-back system, but I doubt it will fail during my lifetime. I don't remember exactly but upwards of 70-80% efficient. This is the best unit as it provides the same of the hot water we use. Back then it was around 10 grand out of pocket.
The solar air heater was next, lower efficiently in transferring the sun's energy into the house, but still effective. These are commercial panels that provides 15-20% of heating, I actually divert the heat into the basement this time of the year to warm up the brick walls, I don't take scientific notations but think this warmth lasts through a few weeks in fall when the furnace would otherwise turn on. it was a few grand more because no subsidies. The only moving part is am electric blower.
Then I did a solar electric system but the minimum, just enough to operate the freezer in the summer and the fans on the natgas, solar heater, and woodstove in the winter, this system paired with nickel iron batteries that last 100 years. More money yet because of the batteries no subsidy. its a small system the controller is $800. This year is year 14 with no issues other than I forget to fill the battery reservoirs with distilled water once and awhile. I would probably go with lithium if I had it all over to do.
The issue is not replacing parts when they fail.
The question is what happens when there is no natgas or electricity? Or what happens when whatever furnace you are using now needs a new part? Whine like Kunstler? Look, he made the wrong choice, he is not that smart.
Because of my experiences hawking solar heating I totally understand the idiots, they want systems that provide free energy. These systems do not produce enough to investors to siphon the surplus, can not be centralized, and should not be designed to produce everything modern man now uses.
The application should be directly with the user, as a supplement that can operate on its own, for when the system fails as in intermittent power or complete shutdown (for whatever reason).
As an aside I am out of this game and will never return. The people who bought in because of my salesmanship are quite happy now as the prices for fuel continue to increase. The one tactic I used to sell over 100 units that had the most resonance is buying one of these units is like locking in the price of fuel for as long as it lasts. Some of them are 15 years old now and as long as some parts that fail are replaced they ought to last over 50 years - but with diminishing returns as the panels wear out.
The question is what happens when there is no natgas or electricity? Or what happens when whatever furnace you are using now needs a new part? Whine like Kunstler? Look, he made the wrong choice, he is not that smart.
Because of my experiences hawking solar heating I totally understand the idiots, they want systems that provide free energy. These systems do not produce enough to investors to siphon the surplus, can not be centralized, and should not be designed to produce everything modern man now uses.
The application should be directly with the user, as a supplement that can operate on its own, for when the system fails as in intermittent power or complete shutdown (for whatever reason).
As an aside I am out of this game and will never return. The people who bought in because of my salesmanship are quite happy now as the prices for fuel continue to increase. The one tactic I used to sell over 100 units that had the most resonance is buying one of these units is like locking in the price of fuel for as long as it lasts. Some of them are 15 years old now and as long as some parts that fail are replaced they ought to last over 50 years - but with diminishing returns as the panels wear out.
Elymus repens (kvickrot in swedish, meaning living root), called 'couch grass' by Wikipedia is not only edible but a rather good source of carbohydrates, and the seeds when dried and ground can be mixed with regular flour. Best part is the actual root though - it contains more carbohydrates by weight than commercial brands of sugar beets.
Rinse, chop and simmer to extract the carbohydrates leaving a syrup-like fluid. Eating the actual root or grass is not recommended due to it containing inulin, which cannot be digested and gives you gas like you wouldn't believe.
I wasn't planning on eating any grass but you might change my mind! Not a comment I was expecting! Hahahaha!
The answer to high food prices is to grow your own food!
I'm with you, Rick, on this one!
Good post. Not much to disagree with. One big question, though, is just how much longer the EU will survive. These things are difficult to predict, but don't be surprised if, come winter, it's each country for itself all over again. (I say "again" because we saw this recently, with the COVID juice. Sure, you and I and most of your readers refused the juice, but that's beside the point.) Some European countries may decide to imitate Hungary and defy Brussels by negotiating directly with Moscow. Mr. Putin may decide to be generous to such countries, in order to undermine European unity (and that may work very well for him, actually).
I think you're right about the Putin-as-divider notion, but I'd rather think about it as Russia being the catalyst, i.e., that these divisions were there already, but the crisis makes them come to the fore (and, let's face it, there are substantial divisions between, say, rainbow flag-toting western Europeans vs. their slightly moder 'traditional' eastern European peers, eh), hence: let's not blame the messenger, so to speak.
As to the continued existence of the EU/EEC, well, I think it won't go away anytime soon (even though I'd prefer that), but then again, some alignment in regulatory and practical terms is fine: sockets, mutual recognition of credentials etc.
I do think the EU/EEC will continue to exist, albeit its influece over esp. regional and local affairs will wither quite substantially. Much like the ancient Roman empire, the EU/EEC will perhaps even be something that's on the mind of peoples well beyond its 'official' demise.
You know, one of the weirder things of the EU is that it's kinda hard to get in, but it's even harder, if not outright impossible, to get out, to say nothing about ending the EU. Have you ever contemplated that the EU treaties are thousands of pages long and that virtually every single public and private player has lobbying groups in Brussels? There's so many stakeholders that it's quite likely that the 'superstructure' (forgive me the crude Marxian term here) will nominally exist for decades even though it will probably lose much, if not all, its meaning in everyday life.
As I see it, Mr. Putin is the President of the Russian Federation. Thus, his job is to advance the interests of the Russian Federation to the best of his ability. Sowing (or exacerbating) division in the EU may indeed be in the interests of the Russian Federation. I see little point in being mad about it. While we're at it, Mr. Biden (or whoever is actually doing his job at the moment) has analogous goals, so there isn't all that much point in Europeans being mad at the Americans, either. The problem is that Europe's politicians are either corrupt or morons (not that these two are mutually exclusive), unable and/or unwilling to advance the interests of the countries that they supposedly lead. Let's not even talk about the union as a whole. So, here we are.
The EU is just a giant bureaucracy. Far more powerful empires have collapsed, and piles of paper that no-one reads or understands are no obstacle to collapse. But sure, it's possible that the EU will simply be forgotten about, without formal disintegration.
Speaking of which, I disagree about this: "Much like the ancient Roman empire, the EU/EEC will perhaps even be something that's on the mind of peoples well beyond its 'official' demise." So far, the EU has existed for less than a century, and it's already in deep doodoo. A hundred years from now, it's likely to be relegated to brief (and eminently forgettable) chapters in high school history textbooks. Most people will be blissfully unware that the thing ever existed.
I'm with you on the first paragraph, have no objections on the second, but I'd like to clarify what you criticise in the third paragr.: I didn't mean to compare ancient Rome and the EU, and your criticism is well taken--I only meant it by way of analogy. People weren't that affected by the end of Rome, formally speaking, because they couldn't care less. One day, they learned it was no more and that was it.
As you said: "A hundred years from now, it's likely to be relegated to brief (and eminently forgettable) chapters in high school history textbooks. Most people will be blissfully unware that the thing ever existed."
We should keep the memory alive, though, if only as a teachable moment.