16 Comments
Feb 25, 2022Liked by epimetheus

Something to note, perhaps: Norway, as has Sweden, has school holidays during weeks 7-11. Different regions have holiday one week at the time so as not to overload the ski resorts and roads and such.

So week 7 was the first such week with people mingling at after-ski, living in small lodges, and so on. Meaning that after week 11 a great many families will have mingled and travelled hither and yon across the country - and then going back to school. As I know from personal experience, the week after sportlov (sport holiday) is always a week where you have lots of students and colleagues at home sick, and you can't find temps for money or mercy.

Don't b surprised if we get a Covid-bump between weeks 12-14. If the russian-ukrainian situation has moved on to at least armistice by then, we'll probably get more fear porn in the media as various political besserwissers will want to capitalise on it.

Expand full comment

I love your article! I wish I could read the underlying PDF file.

Expand full comment

I don't understand how/why you used absolute numbers when calculating the risks ratios. Vax group and unvaxxed group are very different sizes. Shouldn't rates be used to calculate risk ratios when groups are of unequal size?

Expand full comment
Feb 25, 2022Liked by epimetheus

Iceland update: now, incidence of hospitalizations is being provided for four more days (until Feb 19):

- unvaccinated: 94.5 / 100,000

- vaccinated, not boosted: 28.1 / 100,000 -> has to be 136.1 / 100,000, if I am correct

- boosted: 78.6 / 100,000

That gives 90.5 / 100,000 for all vaccinated. Next week they might overtake the unvaccinated.

Expand full comment
deletedFeb 25, 2022·edited Feb 25, 2022Liked by epimetheus
Comment deleted
Expand full comment