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March 10, 2022
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As to the Agriculture Ministry, well, I suppose that they are about as competent (if you'd be able to call it that…) as the public health authorities. The main problem that I do see is that a lot of 'shortages' will be quite…specific, at first, much higher prices for some imported goods, such as coffee, which is already +25% compared to before Christmas. Note that, conversely, other imported goods are still quite cheap (e.g., Spanish strawberries).

I'd argue that we'll see prices rise unevenly, and not all at-once. A lot of the grains that are produced globally, for instance, go to domestic animals (pigs, cattle) that are in turn eaten by humans. So, problems with grains will inevitably lead to higher meat prices further down the road while, for instance, other meat (e.g., chicken) might come under significant price pressures for a related, if different reason: as the prices of pork and beef rise, demand for perceivedly cheaper chicken will increase, thus their price hike will be due to different reasons (increased demand, as opposed to reduced production due to problems with the food supply).

So, we'll see shortages/price hikes across different kinds of goods, for different periods of time, and for different reasons. The end result will be quite the same, but there are many differences in-between, so to say.

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The strawberries are an interesting case indeed. They are available, and cheap, in Germany as well - which has never been the case in previous winters.

On the other hand, today we talked to someone who is to build a new garden terrace for our house. Prices of building materials are going up, availability is an issue. Producers of ceramic tiles are stopping production because energy prices skyrocket.

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