Much of this reduction in European birth rates has mostly to do with unwillingness to have children. Wait until today’s jabbed children become of child bearing age. We are likely to discover that the inability to have children will result in a precipitous drop in birth rates.
And I'm just having a really hard time seeing the falling birth rates as a calamity. Calamity for the overlords - no doubt. But fewer workers means that you have to treat them better if you want to keep them. Not a bad thing in my book. You're the historian here: didn't the plague improve living standards for those commoners who happened to survive? (Though it was a calamity of epic proportions for the aristocracy, who were no longer in a position to exploit the masses quite so easily.) No plague this time around (let's hope it stays that way), just a breeding strike on the part of the young. Gee. The overlords may need to pay more, and the oldies who would prefer to YOLO their accumulated wealth away (via Peter Turchin: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-13211785/My-inheritance-drunk-straw-coconut-Caribbean-selfish-resenting-boomer-parents-burning-money-mine.html) might need to work a bit longer. This is a calamity because...?
You're correct about the historical analogy of and the relative better outcomes for 'common' people who survived the Black Death.
The problem that I see here, frankly, is that 'the overlords' have a) already plundered the accumulated wealth of the 20th century (pension funds, insurance schemes), and while I doubt that falling birth rates aren't possibly become a problem, I do b) see social arrangements people take for granted in 'the West' (pension funds, insurance schemes) collapse well before any 'Great Reset' takes place. And angry 'commoners' have the 'nasty habit' of lynching overlords, hence the tone here.
Add to that the pampered 'young generation' who will, in any event, have to work more/harder to survive than right now, and you can, I'd submit, see how this situation quickly takes a few turns for the worse…
About the "pampered young": in recent times, the young have been able to enjoy certain luxuries that used to be fairly rare (avocado toast, anyone?), but the flip side is that the necessities such as housing have gotten crappier and more expensive. As have stable jobs.
Which reminds me. Many years ago, I read an article about the post-WWI German hyperinflation. Apparently, this led to a relaxation of sexual norms. Why? Because back in the day, young women would work for a few years in order to save up for a dowery so that they could marry. And then the inflation came along, which made mockery of the whole concept of saving. So, no prospect of dowery, no prospect of marriage - might as well live like there's no tomorrow, since there pretty much is no tomorrow. Delayed gratification only makes sense if you can actually expect gratification. Something similar seems to be happening with our "pampered young."
I see that issue, too, and I'm not arguing against it for the sake of (re)introducing more stringent mores. (Moreover, official state policies of, yes, the Nazis, did the rest there by making mandatory non-family-guarded associations in the 'youth organisations' a thing.)
I do sense that this will play out a bit more like the proverbial ant and grasshopper story…
The situation will no doubt take a turn or three for the worse (limits to growth and all that). However, I don't see how it wouldn't be even worse than that if there were lots of young people. We'll have to do with less. So, it's better if there are fewer of us. Pension? Well, you'll have to wait longer for that. It may be that old age pension simply becomes a thing of the past. You may be given welfare if you are too sick to work. But if you're too sick to work, then you're too sick to vacation in Thailand, aren't you?
Oh, I'm not arguing about the work part, don't get me wrong.
My argument was: most Westerners are incredibly 'pampered' and have (in my opinion unhealthy and unrealistic) expectations of entitlements; I harbour no such illusions, but I fear that my cynical--realistic--attitude is a minority opinion.
Actually, the situation is not that rosy for Hungary. While 2020 and 2021 saw record numbers of births, 2022 fell back to the 2019 level, 2023 was by far the worst in the 2017-2023 period, and the first quarter of 2024 undershoots all first quarters from that period. The tempo effect is one possible explanation.
Much of this reduction in European birth rates has mostly to do with unwillingness to have children. Wait until today’s jabbed children become of child bearing age. We are likely to discover that the inability to have children will result in a precipitous drop in birth rates.
I 'fear' that you're right about this, and I also, and clearly so, anticipate that 'public health officialdom' will deny everything about this.
We have hard time imagining the cascading effects of this demographic ticking bomb.
And I'm just having a really hard time seeing the falling birth rates as a calamity. Calamity for the overlords - no doubt. But fewer workers means that you have to treat them better if you want to keep them. Not a bad thing in my book. You're the historian here: didn't the plague improve living standards for those commoners who happened to survive? (Though it was a calamity of epic proportions for the aristocracy, who were no longer in a position to exploit the masses quite so easily.) No plague this time around (let's hope it stays that way), just a breeding strike on the part of the young. Gee. The overlords may need to pay more, and the oldies who would prefer to YOLO their accumulated wealth away (via Peter Turchin: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-13211785/My-inheritance-drunk-straw-coconut-Caribbean-selfish-resenting-boomer-parents-burning-money-mine.html) might need to work a bit longer. This is a calamity because...?
Very well-taken points.
You're correct about the historical analogy of and the relative better outcomes for 'common' people who survived the Black Death.
The problem that I see here, frankly, is that 'the overlords' have a) already plundered the accumulated wealth of the 20th century (pension funds, insurance schemes), and while I doubt that falling birth rates aren't possibly become a problem, I do b) see social arrangements people take for granted in 'the West' (pension funds, insurance schemes) collapse well before any 'Great Reset' takes place. And angry 'commoners' have the 'nasty habit' of lynching overlords, hence the tone here.
Add to that the pampered 'young generation' who will, in any event, have to work more/harder to survive than right now, and you can, I'd submit, see how this situation quickly takes a few turns for the worse…
About the "pampered young": in recent times, the young have been able to enjoy certain luxuries that used to be fairly rare (avocado toast, anyone?), but the flip side is that the necessities such as housing have gotten crappier and more expensive. As have stable jobs.
Which reminds me. Many years ago, I read an article about the post-WWI German hyperinflation. Apparently, this led to a relaxation of sexual norms. Why? Because back in the day, young women would work for a few years in order to save up for a dowery so that they could marry. And then the inflation came along, which made mockery of the whole concept of saving. So, no prospect of dowery, no prospect of marriage - might as well live like there's no tomorrow, since there pretty much is no tomorrow. Delayed gratification only makes sense if you can actually expect gratification. Something similar seems to be happening with our "pampered young."
I see that issue, too, and I'm not arguing against it for the sake of (re)introducing more stringent mores. (Moreover, official state policies of, yes, the Nazis, did the rest there by making mandatory non-family-guarded associations in the 'youth organisations' a thing.)
I do sense that this will play out a bit more like the proverbial ant and grasshopper story…
The situation will no doubt take a turn or three for the worse (limits to growth and all that). However, I don't see how it wouldn't be even worse than that if there were lots of young people. We'll have to do with less. So, it's better if there are fewer of us. Pension? Well, you'll have to wait longer for that. It may be that old age pension simply becomes a thing of the past. You may be given welfare if you are too sick to work. But if you're too sick to work, then you're too sick to vacation in Thailand, aren't you?
Oh, I'm not arguing about the work part, don't get me wrong.
My argument was: most Westerners are incredibly 'pampered' and have (in my opinion unhealthy and unrealistic) expectations of entitlements; I harbour no such illusions, but I fear that my cynical--realistic--attitude is a minority opinion.
Actually, the situation is not that rosy for Hungary. While 2020 and 2021 saw record numbers of births, 2022 fell back to the 2019 level, 2023 was by far the worst in the 2017-2023 period, and the first quarter of 2024 undershoots all first quarters from that period. The tempo effect is one possible explanation.
https://www.file-upload.net/download-15321840/BirthsHungary.jpg.html