Since the vaccine roll-out (28. Dec. 2020), rates of hospitalisation, ICU admission, and deaths among 'all-cause' vaccinated are at least (!) ten (!) times higher than for the 'unvaccinated'
1. PCR positivity rates: without separate PCR positivity rates broken down by vaccine status, it is very difficult to draw firm conclusions from comparisons of infection incidences across vaccine statuses. And yet they do!
Example: (all other things being equal - note: they are not, likely higher incidences of asymptomatic in vaxxed))
Consider infection rate/100k in vaxxed 1/3 of rate in unvaxxed BUT unvaxxed were tested 3x as often...?
If positivity rates are equal then we could infer "true" infection rates are also similar
If positivity rates are not equal then we "true" infection rates of vaxxed and unvaxxed could diverge or converge from to reported rates
2. Cohort composition and selection bias: without more detailed information about the unvaccinated population vs vaccinated, it is very difficult to draw firm conclusions from comparisons of hospitalisation/ICU/death incidences. And yet they try!
E.g. as you point out, we may assume the oldest, sickest, weakest, and most immune compromised are all to be found in the unvaccinated cohort. Previous studies also point to flu shot uptake being greater among the more health conscious and conversely lower among the more vulnerable. Cohorts are thus highly UNmatched! And then there is the issue of vary behaviour due to perceived protection/vulnerability.
3. Variants: how to compare infection/hospitalisation/ICU/death rates within vaxxed/unvaxxed cohorts across variants? Has treatment improved, is variant less virulent, is there selection bias within cohorts (as discussed in 2.)?
I think your approach is at least moving in this direction by comparing percentage increases within vax/unvax cohorts across time. Thank you!
We see a similar pattern in Australia, and elsewhere. Naturally, we would expect that since they follow the same script writers.
The Australian state of Victoria, or Wutoria, issued a rare "code brown" alert over hospitalisation, supposedly, because of omibud. So a TV crew went to film a hospital from a outside a door. As a camera zoomed in, it saw a female nurse strutting her stuff! She did not have enough practice like those Jerusalema dances in 2020.
"Long story short: shall we discuss the one remaining sales pitch for the vaccines in terms of ‘individual-level protection’ against hospitalisation, severe disease (ICU admission), and death now?"
Who's calling out whom? LOL
https://nakedemperor.substack.com/
A couple of points:
1. PCR positivity rates: without separate PCR positivity rates broken down by vaccine status, it is very difficult to draw firm conclusions from comparisons of infection incidences across vaccine statuses. And yet they do!
Example: (all other things being equal - note: they are not, likely higher incidences of asymptomatic in vaxxed))
Consider infection rate/100k in vaxxed 1/3 of rate in unvaxxed BUT unvaxxed were tested 3x as often...?
If positivity rates are equal then we could infer "true" infection rates are also similar
If positivity rates are not equal then we "true" infection rates of vaxxed and unvaxxed could diverge or converge from to reported rates
2. Cohort composition and selection bias: without more detailed information about the unvaccinated population vs vaccinated, it is very difficult to draw firm conclusions from comparisons of hospitalisation/ICU/death incidences. And yet they try!
E.g. as you point out, we may assume the oldest, sickest, weakest, and most immune compromised are all to be found in the unvaccinated cohort. Previous studies also point to flu shot uptake being greater among the more health conscious and conversely lower among the more vulnerable. Cohorts are thus highly UNmatched! And then there is the issue of vary behaviour due to perceived protection/vulnerability.
3. Variants: how to compare infection/hospitalisation/ICU/death rates within vaxxed/unvaxxed cohorts across variants? Has treatment improved, is variant less virulent, is there selection bias within cohorts (as discussed in 2.)?
I think your approach is at least moving in this direction by comparing percentage increases within vax/unvax cohorts across time. Thank you!
The media start to react. See vg here: https://www.vg.no/nyheter/innenriks/i/bGdqqd/nye-grafer-saa-hoey-har-belastningen-vaert-paa-sykehusene?utm_source=vgfront&utm_content=hovedlopet_row1_pos1
I could have written it.
I am not certain your view is shared by everyone. https://www.vg.no/nyheter/innenriks/i/9K0Bpd/solberg-vil-presse-frem-debatt-om-uvaksinerte
Thanks, Fackel, for mentioning me.
What a pleasant surprise to wake up and read it.
We see a similar pattern in Australia, and elsewhere. Naturally, we would expect that since they follow the same script writers.
The Australian state of Victoria, or Wutoria, issued a rare "code brown" alert over hospitalisation, supposedly, because of omibud. So a TV crew went to film a hospital from a outside a door. As a camera zoomed in, it saw a female nurse strutting her stuff! She did not have enough practice like those Jerusalema dances in 2020.
See the video in a reply to https://t.me/AdamsEconomics/120
"Long story short: shall we discuss the one remaining sales pitch for the vaccines in terms of ‘individual-level protection’ against hospitalisation, severe disease (ICU admission), and death now?"
YES, please.