Russia's Ambassador to Austria on War and Peace, BRICS, the Global Economy, and More

Courtesy of my colleagues over at TKP.at, here's some quite interesting food for thought

German-language original here; translations, in-between commentary [in squared parentheses], and emphases mine, as are the bottom lines.

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The long-time Kurier journalist Martin Sörös [MS] met Dimitrij Ljubinskij [DM], who has been Russian ambassador in Vienna since 2015, for an interview on Wednesday. The conversation offers insights not only into the current diplomatic relations between Austria and Russia, but also into global politics. For enhanced readability, I have formatted Mr. Ljubinskjij’s answers in block quotes.

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[MS] Dear Ambassador, thank you for agreeing to this interview, and let me start right away with the question that is probably on the minds of everyone around the world at the moment: when will we live in peace again?

[DM] I would recommend asking Kiev this question but that makes little sense. Therefore, it should be passed on to Washington and its ‘satellites’. The problems we are all facing today are by far not only related to Ukraine but to the whole European continent. They have accumulated over many years, if not decades. The continuous ‘NATO push to the East’, the cultivation of Russophobic forces in Ukraine that eventually led to the 2014 coup d'état, the West’s relentless attempts to contain Russia, to subjugate it, and make it obedient—all these factors have driven us towards the political and diplomatic abyss.

[MS] That is, according to your ‘interpretation’ Russia is merely exercising its legitimate right to defend itself?

[DM] It must finally be understood that Russia’s essential security concerns and needs must be respected, and that the rights of the Russian-speaking population must also be considered in Ukraine. Furthermore, hatred of Russia as a Nazi ideology and fundamental principle must no longer have any political ground in Europe. Only then will a peaceful and sustainable coexistence become possible again, which rests on the basis of the indivisibility of security. At present, however, we are experiencing exactly the opposite: the West’s plan is to achieve its strategic goals with Ukrainian hands through more and more bloodshed on the battlefield, to fight Russia to the ‘last Ukrainian’ in order to weaken, reverse, or even fragment it. All this will never work out. This must finally be understood and the new conditions ‘on the ground’ respected.

I would like to emphasise this thesis especially in these days around 19 April—on the 240th anniversary of the accession of the Crimean Peninsula, Taman Island, and the entire Cuban region to the Russian Empire. In principle, many complex issues will ultimately depend on whether Europe is able and willing to behave as an independent actor. And on whether Europe is able to listen to the expectations of its own population. [curiously, and apart from the boiler-plate '‘argumentation’ above, this is actually the crux of the matter—a shame that Mr. Sörös doesn’t follow-up on this one]

[MS] Could China play a mediating role in the conflict? This hope has been around for some time.

[DM] China has considerable mediation potential and its recent diplomatic mediation successes in the Middle East reinforce this notion. Russia is very indebted to our Chinese and other important partners for understanding the reasons for what is happening in Ukraine, as well as for their willingness to contribute to the resolution of the conflict. But as far as the government in Kiev is concerned, and especially its Western sponsors, they seem to have no interest at all in a settlement. Zelenskyy recently issued a decree stating that negotiations with the Russian side are impossible. Understandably, peace talks require at least two sides. At the moment, the other side seems to be doing everything it can to decide the conflict on the battlefield, vast quantities of Western arms and ammunition deliveries—paid for with taxpayers’ money, by the way—included. Human lives are secondary. But the day will come—and hopefully soon—when the realisation will dawn that Russia cannot be beaten militarily. But is it of essential importance for Europe to let China solve questions of its own regional security? [another very fair point, esp. as the ‘opposite’ notion of letting DC or Wall Street do that is equally true; I do recall Mr. Putin addressing the Bundestag—in German—more than twenty years ago. I move that it’s fair to identify the proximate origins of Russia’s ‘(re)turn’ to Eurasia back in the days of the Schröder-Fischer gov’t] Let me also remind you that our essential proposals on this were presented as recently as December 2021. At the time, however, they were arrogantly brushed aside. And as far as Vienna’s role as a whole is concerned, it has squandered its chances with a short-sighted foreign policy and a constant softening of its own ‘perpetual’ neutrality. [another ‘fair’ point, on which see this piece, if you desire ‘more’ information]

[MS] One read in Western media that Russia is close to economic collapse due to the sanctions imposed by the EU and the USA. So, the sanctions are obviously working, aren't they?

[DM] Far from it, and the conclusions are quite different. The West’s illegal sanctions are undeniably a double-edged sword. The question of who they affect more—Russia or the West—is, in my opinion, even a secondary one. But one thing is already clear to me—the ‘collective West’ is losing strategically very badly. Current figures illustrate how these unprecedented punitive measures have affected the Austrian economy.

[MS] Which is?

[DM] Inflation in this country was 9.2% in March, with a monthly record of 11.2% in January [2023]. Food prices rose by 16%, fuel prices by 30%, company insolvencies rose by 22% in Q1 2023 (that’s 14 companies every day). New IMF forecasts show that sanctions hurt EU countries more than Russia. In 2023, the Austrian economy is expected to grow by 0.4%, about half the growth rate of Russia (0.7%).

[MS] And what does Russia’s economy really look like now?

[DM] As far as the Russian economy is concerned, our government has worked out effective measures in time to blunt the negative consequences of the sanctions. Without a doubt, there is no question of a [Russian] collapse desired by the West. This is confirmed both by renowned economic experts in the West and by international economic institutions. Highest marks in coping with the consequences of the sanctions are given to the central bank and the entire banking sector. Unprecedented restrictions, in turn, have led to a fundamental rethinking of our economic policies and structures, with a focus on innovation and home-production of strategically important goods. In addition, the reorientation of trade flows towards new markets [the turn towards China, India; in a few years, Russia will be able to choose its trading partners], secure means of payment [i.e., no chance for future sanctions, not ‘just’ in Russia but also across the Global South], and also future prospects. Now we already have less than 4% inflation, investments in total capital have increased by 4.6%.

In general, it should also be emphasised that sanctions never lead to the desired goal and in most cases only have the opposite effect. But the rifts that have already been created in Europe, of an absolutely artificial nature mind you, can only be closed with great difficulty, if at-all [this means, to be blunt, the increasing tensions between domestic European societies vs. the various governments, as well as of ‘Europe’ as a whole vs. the rising tide of Anti-Americanism] And once again, does all this meet the expectations of the populations of the currently unfriendly countries? I doubt it very much.

[MS] Parts of the Austrian economy are beginning to think more or less aloud about whether the EU sanctions against Russia might not affect Austria’s economy and population more than Russia. Is there any hope for a basis for talks? [what a stupid question]

[DM] Trade cooperation, which has long been the cornerstone and most important driving force of our bilateral relations with Austria, still exists and remains important, even though it has been curbed by the pressure of sanctions. Statistically, Russia continues to be one of Austria’s most important trading partners and ranks 6th in terms of export volume. According to Russian data, our bilateral trade volume even grew by 65.4% in the period January-October 2022, albeit largely due to record-high energy prices. According to the [Austrian Chamber of Commerce], mutual trade doubled in 2022 to 10.07 billion euros. While Austria’s exports declined by only 8% in 2022, EU-wide exports did so by -38.1%, By contrast, Russia’s exports grew by 76%. [line break added]

There is no doubt that a significant majority of the business community in Austria as well as other EU member states is not satisfied with the current state of affairs and considers these restrictions, which are contrary to international law, as counterproductive and harmful to themselves. European businessmen lose a lot: their former position in the Russian market is rapidly being reoccupied by companies and willing partners from other countries whose governments have more sense and foresight. These lucrative niches would at some point, if at all, only be regained with great difficulty. [line break added]

As far as the Russian-Austrian energy relations are concerned, the Austrian government, contrary to economic logic, has rushed to declare an end to dealings with Russia. It is now hastily trying to write off the impeccable strategic partnership between our countries in the gas sector, which has lasted for half a century, as a bad decision. And in doing so, they forget that it was precisely this partnership that provided the basis for the economic miracles and the pillars of Austria’s (as well as some other countries') prosperity on a large scale. The currently hotly debated need for Austria’s new security doctrine, which among the very first tasks seems to be focused on reducing ‘energy dependence’ on Russia, is no more or less a tilting at windmills. We often hear that there will be no more ‘business as usual’. Here we have to assure that ‘business as usual’ will definitely no longer be possible for our energy dialogue. We will reorient ourselves towards other, more reliable markets and trustworthy buyers. We will not let anyone blackmail us with this. [understandably, there goes Europe’s welfare state and relative economic prosperity, courtesy of these moronic politicians, their fellow travellers in legacy media, and the US/NATO camp followers]

[MS] As Russia’s ambassador to Austria, are you actually in contact with Austrian diplomats or politicians? Do you at least talk?

[DM] Our formerly constructive and cooperative relations with Austria are unfortunately at an all-time low. However, the Embassy is not working in a vacuum. We remain in contact with Austrian authorities, including the Foreign Ministry, mostly at the working level, as far as it is necessary at the moment. Also, or above all, delicate and unpleasant issues are addressed quite openly on our part. But that is not the decisive thing. Given the current attitude of the Austrian coalition government, we have a shrinking negotiating base and agenda. If there is nothing more to add in Vienna to what has already been stated in Brussels, we are left with little to talk about. [another gem—esp. as Russia repeatedly said virtually the same about not 'only’ the Ukrainian régime in Kyiv but also about the EU]

[MS] That sounds like strong bitterness and disappointment, doesn’t it?

[DM] In its quest for endless EU-solidarity, Austria is basically losing its international significance, the role of a neutral state, and is (re)interpreting neutrality exclusively in military terms [while there is something to this, Austrian neutrality legislation—endorsed by the USSR back in 1955—actually does not contain any additional obligations, legally speaking; now, in light of the afore-mentioned consequences of the rushed judgement in terms of energy dependence, this issue quickly morphs into a question of ‘smart policy’, and the answer to that one is pretty obvious, eh…?!] But even there, questions arise. There are more and more reports of arms transports for Kiev through the Austria. We also often receive indications of such suspicious transit deliveries from concerned Austrians and fellow countrymen. The Austrian military leadership is well aware of our position on this. The assurances that none of the transports passing through Austria is destined for Kiev are difficult to verify from here and remain on Vienna’s conscience. They do not sound particularly credible when, for example, tanks are transported using the Austrian railway network. [line break added]

To sum up: the openly unfriendly course of the Austrian leadership, including its willing support for illegitimate and blanket anti-Russian sanctions, is completely destroying the constructive foundation of bilateral relations built over decades and substantially limiting the prospects for serious normalisation in the foreseeable future. We notice very well how Austrian politicians openly allow themselves to make strongly anti-Russian statements and then do not seem to notice events of nationalist-minded supporters of Bandera sympathisers in the centre of Vienna. Under such circumstances, there can be no talk of a substantive dialogue with Vienna at the moment. However, we remain an embassy open to contacts in the representative Vienna Corps Diplomatique and also protect independent thinkers and absolutely reasonable personalities in politics and beyond in Austria.

[MS] Away from the mainstream media, reports are mounting on social networks that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is really about a kind of new world order. The USA and the EU on one side, the BRICS states with Saudi Arabia, Africa and other supporters on the other. What is there to it?

[DM] The world is indeed changing. Attempts to create a unipolar world order with a very small group of countries (like the G7) at the top, calling itself a ‘garden’ and trying to impose its rules on the rest of the ‘jungle’, are failing. This of course angers Washington and Brussels tremendously, but we are convinced that the new model of a democratically free, pluralistic world, based on international law, without neo-colonial exploitation, threats and blackmail will eventually prevail. This is what we, and with us a very significant group of like-minded countries such as China, are advocating.

[MS] And Europe?

[DM] In security-related matters, the EU is merging more and more with NATO, which for its part is increasingly striving for world domination. Europeans seem to lose sight of how they are being instrumentalised for the interests of the USA and drawn into a dangerous power game. NATO has long ceased to be a defensive alliance and is vehemently trying to undermine the powers of the UN Security Council. [I rarely object to such statements, and while Mr. Ljubinskij speaks quite truthfully about this, I’d add the following ‘nuance’: NATO isn’t ‘striving for world domination’, but the US and NATO are increasingly desperately trying to hold on to world domination, which is, I’d argue, a meaningful difference—but don’t ask me why the Russian ambassador didn’t explain that] I don’t need to explain to you at all how dangerous this can be, the examples of the bombings of Belgrade [in 1999] are still before the eyes of many. Or the consequences of the fictitious ‘good intentions’ towards Iraq, Libya…the list is long if one wants to talk about criminal policies. As is well known, it did not work in Syria.

Russia, for its part, is strengthening relations with the emerging countries of the world. This group of countries represents an absolute majority of the world's population. As you rightly mentioned, we have good cooperation with the BRICS countries. The Russian-Chinese partnership is stronger than ever. As President Putin aptly put it, it is a partnership that is directed towards the future. Our contacts with the countries of the Persian Gulf, the partnership with Egypt, Algeria, a broad range of African countries, Latin America, where Foreign Minister Lavrov has just paid a major visit, South-East Asia and the Middle East are developing encouragingly. I can expand this list even more—especially to the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, and so on. [line break added]

We keep emphasising that all countries should have the right to live according to universal rules agreed and enshrined in the UN Charter and not just according to the dictates of a well-known power centre and its satellites. Once—and if—the ‘civilised’ West finally realises this at some point, our world will be able to live much better, more peacefully and more justly. Hope dies last.

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Bottom Lines

At this point in time, there’s not much I’d add to the in-between commentary in the squared parentheses.

Perhaps it’s more worthwhile to ponder the dangerous what if…question, then: would post-WW2 Europe have fared ‘better’ under the Soviet heel?

I very much doubt it, even though the answer is impossible to know. As the example of the past 30-40 years of Chinese development indicate, ‘Communism’ could, technically, have evolved differently if there would’ve been no superpower competition. Sure, it’s a hypothetical, and the price in terms of individual liberties to be paid is very high.

While, from today’s vantage point, I’m vehemently opposed to infringement of individual liberties by states or corporations, I doubt that this would’ve been a prime concern back in 1945.

That said, there is a whole lot to take in and reflect upon, esp. concerning the long-term damage to European-Russian relations wrought by 25+ years of following, largely blindly—blinded by our Western hubris—the dictates of Washington and Wall Street.

The chicken are coming home to roost as I type this.

Time will tell how many street lights we’ll be able to keep on next winter.

Keep your eyes on the ball and keep on preparing accordingly.

One thing is certain: if this winter was tough, it’ll quite likely compare favourably by the time temperatures drop.