Peak Oil in Norway
Breaching the frontiers of sanity, economics, and reality itself, journos™, experts™, and politicos™ struggle to face the truth: the party is over
Legacy media news™ about oil and gas exploration in Norway means—it’s time to follow-up on my mid-May posting, which I highly recommend in case you haven’t read it earlier:
Peak Oil & Gas, Socialism, and the EU Energy Supply: Despite Staff Increases, Equinor Produces Less
Translation, emphases, and [snark] mine.
[Equinor to] Spend 13 Billion NOK [US$ 1.3b] to Extract More Oil
More than 50 similar projects are underway to secure oil production and energy supplies for Europe in the coming years. But SV [Socialist Left] fears exploding costs and increased fossil fuel dependency.
By Fride Audunsdotter Westvik, NRK, 1 July 2025 [source; archived]
‘With this billion-euro investment, a total of NOK 35 billion [some 2.95b euros] worth of oil can be extracted. That’s a lot of money and resources’, says energy adviser Ulf Rosenberg [if this is true, the investment-to-returns ratio has declined to 1 : >3 (don’t be fooled by the 35b number, for 35b NOK are some 2.95b euros); for further in-depth consideration, please check out
’s dedicated posting on what he calls ‘the Seneca Cliff’].Equinor and its partners will invest NOK 13 billion [about 1b euros] in the Johan Sverdrup [field], which is one of the largest oil fields on the Norwegian shelf.
The Johan Sverdrup field achieved a production record in 2024 on the Norwegian shelf. Now, new investments shall expand production [this wording, by the way, is legacy media confirming the reality of peak oil].
The Johan Sverdrup platform produces around 755,000 barrels of oil per day.
At today’s oil price, that equates to NOK 500 million a day [or 42.13m euros].
Today, one in three barrels of oil on the Norwegian shelf comes from that field [which is another way of stating, for the record, that if the Johan Sverdrup play peaks, Norwegian oil production as a whole will peak].
Rosenberg has followed the oil industry closely for 40 years as a journalist and consultant, and leads the Energy Capital project organised by the Chamber of Commerce in the Stavanger region.
The initiative is called phase 3
Johan Sverdrop Phase 3 [an infobox; ‘source: Equinor’]
Johan Sverdrup is located in the Utsira High area of the North Sea, 160 kilometres west of Stavanger, and covers an area of 200 square kilometres.
The field has a production capacity of 755,000 barrels per day, about a third of Norwegian oil production at current levels [i.e., it’s a moving variable and enormously problematic to use for comparisons over time]
In 2024, the operation of the Johan Sverdrup field contributed to more than 4,400 full-time equivalents and Norwegian deliveries totalling NOK 7 billion [some 589.3m euros]
Johan Sverdrup is electrified with power from shore [that’s another of Norway’s elephants in the room: electrification of the Norwegian shelf requires some 17 TWh (projections as of 2024); as per Statistics Norway, electricity production in Norway stood at 11,599 GWh (May 2025)—which is to say that electrification of the Norwegian shelf exceeds current electricity generation by some 32%]. CO2 emissions of 0.67 kilograms per barrel of oil produced are about five per cent of the global average [nice, but given the above, it’s a pipe-dream (and no-one knows what politicos™ put into that pipe when they came up with that policy, which, as this NRK piece from autumn 2024 explains™, ‘will result in higher electricity prices’: you cannot make up this nonsense].
Phase 3 development consists of two new drilling operations in the Kvitsøy and Avaldsnes areas with six wellheads each and a total of eight wells, which are tied back to existing well templates via pipelines to the P2 platform for processing and export.
Future value creation is facilitated by the inclusion of additional well slots, spare capacity in the existing infrastructure, and opportunities to connect to future production sites.
Rights holders: Equinor Energy AS 42.6267% (operator), Aker BP ASA 31.5733%, Petoro AS 17.36%, and TotalEnergies EP Norge AS 8.44%.
Last year, Johan Sverdrup set a production record with 260 million barrels of oil, which is the highest annual production ever from a Norwegian field [more words to say ‘peak oil’].
Stable Energy Supply to Europe
Recovery rates from Johan Sverdrup are already at 66%. This means that two-thirds of the oil in the reservoir is expected to be recovered.
By comparison, the average for the Norwegian shelf is 47% [i.e., the shelf as a whole has already passed peak production]. This makes the field both efficient and extra valuable for both the state coffers and the oil companies.
But the phase 3 project will help to further increase recovery to 75% [which will, in the end, only accelerate the way down from peak production].
‘The project increases value creation from Johan Sverdrup. At the same time, it contributes to a stable energy supply for Europe’, says Trond Bokn, senior vice president for project development in Equinor [call me a sceptic, but that’s wishful thinking: once Johan Sverdrup passes its peak—perhaps this year, maybe that occurred already last year—it’ll be downhill from thence].
Minister of Energy: A Happy Day for Norway and Europe
‘Europe asks Norway to continue to be a safe and stable supplier of oil and gas. To counteract a steep decline in production on the Norwegian continental shelf [oopsie, we’re already in a ‘steep decline’, with Johan Sverdrup actually the last man standing here], it is absolutely essential that we explore more, find more and extract more’, says energy minister Terje Aasland (Labour Party) [that’s the third time the piece told everybody that the production peak is nigh (or passed already)].
Equinor’s ambition is to maintain high oil and gas production on the Norwegian continental shelf until 2035 [forgive me for asking: and then? Do we have a plan or something for what’s to happen beyond 2035?].
‘Johan Sverdrup phase 3 is one of several projects where investment decisions will be made this year. This feeds our ambitions’, says Marianne Bjelland, senior vice president for Johan Sverdrup.
Fears of Budget Overruns
The investment of NOK 13 billion [about 1b euros] is large, but not so large that it must be dealt with by the Storting [nothing says ‘trust me numbers’ like ‘no need to trouble ye pesky lawmakers with data’].
The limit is NOK 15 billion [about 1.26b euros].
‘I fear that there will be budget overruns and cost overruns, and that the matter should have been dealt with by the Storting anyway’, says Lars Haltbrekken (SV), adding:
We’re at a time when we’re setting new temperature records. And we think it’s crazy to initiate even more production of fossil fuels.
New Trend on the Norwegian Shelf
The investment is just one of several such projects Equinor is planning.
Over the next ten years, around 50 similar projects will be launched [if we presume these to be in the same ballpark in terms of required investments, we’re talking NOK 750b (three quarters of a trillion, that is), or some 63.2b euros (at current rates): this is doable in terms of spending, although the return on investment may be questionable…].
‘This is an example of several similar projects, a megatrend on the Norwegian continental shelf’, says Rosenberg [I’m calling this ‘desperation’].
Scheduled start-up for Johan Sverdrup phase 3 is at the end of 2027 [so, they’re planning to invest a billion euros now to drill eight wells within 1.5 years: it’s quite an admission of the technical difficulties of doing so].
Bottom Lines
I’m quoting a few lines from the mid-May piece linked at the top here:
As the Norwegian example shows, however, there are few such new discoveries to be anticipated. Consequently, throwing more investments at this problem will likely not change the outlook.
In the short run, the turn towards Norwegian gas was quite successful for the EU; in the medium term, however, depletion of Norway’s hydrocarbons suggests this was, at best, an expedient short-term fix…
Politicos™, experts™, and journos™ are all pretending that everything’s gonna be alright.
When, not if, these multiple shocks hit home, it will make for a very rude awakening.
I’m sorry to bring you these shitty news, but there’s no simple, quick, or easy way out of this problem.
Just imagine the sheer numbers involved: after a century or more of sustained investments and ongoing maintenance, Norway produces around 11.6 TWh of electricity—and the electrification of oil and gas rigs requires 17 TWh.
Much like with the oil fields, the best and most productive places for hydroelectric power stations are already in use in Norway—and every incremental increase of production will cost way in excess of what is currently in place.
This is insanity, and there’s no way of sugar-coating this.
It’s the equivalence of the powers-that-be pushing towards CBDCs and ever-larger structures: a magnificently gargantuan exercise in hubris that, given our understanding of finance, physics, and, yes, human nature, will fail.
Probably sooner rather than later.
If we engage in some "lateral thinking" (as they said in 90s management-seminars, about everything), the EU can secure its energy supply quite easily without going dependent on Russia.
Not realistic and won't happen though:
EU-Veneueal deal on oil/gas extraction. Since Venezuela is what it is, the EU will have initial cause to move in and put their own staff in place.
When extraction starts it will become evident that their corruption cannot be tolerated as it threatens production; the inherent corruption can be exploited as a Casus Belli for occupation.
Venezuela is then gradually put under European military rule as a resource-colony.
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Totally unrealistic of course, and the people in charge lack the Will and the creativity to think like that, but by starting with the outrageous and working backwards you most of the time arrive at workable solutions. Doing it in reverse, starting with all the limits that makes something acceptable for ethical, political and so on - any reason but practical, really - means handicapping yourself and always prevent solutions. Just look at how education is handled. The practical solutions are obvious: the solutions permitted to be talked about by the current paradigm aren't solutions but problem-causers.
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Otherwise, it's Russia and Iran and nuclear and pretty much nothing else, except stopping migration and repatriating 50 000 000 people and natural depopulation to arrive at sustainable levels.