Norwegian Births in 2023--'Up' Due to Resettlement and Gov't Subsidies
Looks like it's a one-off in terms of 'game changer'
Reference is made to this recent post:
In the comment section, I proposed that these ‘news’ might be due to a one-time data artefact, i.e., the gov’t-directed settlement of ‘refugees’ from Ukraine in the North. Readers from Norway agreed that this might be a plausible hypothesis, and, lo and behold, a few days later, state broadcaster NRK all but confirmed my ‘speculation’.
One thing before we move—northern Norway has been emptying out faster than all other non-metropolitan areas, and this has been a cause for concern for quite some time. Last year, a number of ‘measures’ (tiltak) were introduced, incl. subsidies for people to move/don’t relocate away from the area.
Thus, the below piece appears in my translation, with emphases added.
Population Increases in the ‘Measures’ Zone in Nord-Troms and Finnmark
By Eskild Johansen et al., NRK, 25 Feb. 2024 [source]
The snow is falling over Gamnes. A small village less than an hour's drive from Tromsø in Karlsøy municipality in northern Troms.
The snow fills the climbing frames and hides the tracks around them, made by little feet that have been pawing around in the small fenced-in playground outside the kindergarten all morning. Now it's lunchtime.
More and more new children fill up the clothes pegs and take seats around the dining tables in the small daycare centre.
For the first time in many years, Karlsøy municipality is experiencing an increase in population: ‘It's great that more and more young families are coming here, settling down and buying houses. Eventually there will be children, and we really appreciate that’, says Tove Eliassen, manager of Gamnes kindergarten [sure, note that the population increase is not due to these measures having resulted in elevated birth rates yet].
In August last year, the government introduced free kindergarten in the measures zone in Nord-Troms and Finnmark. For the first time in six years, the population in the area is increasing.
The measures zone includes all municipalities in Finnmark and seven municipalities in Nord-Troms. For the first time since 2018, the total population increased in the entire area. In 2023, the population increased in 18 of 25 municipalities. Excluding settled refugees, the population also increased in 11 out of 25 municipalities.
At Gamnes kindergarten in Karlsøy municipality, an hour's drive outside Tromsø, the daycare centre is filling up.
Commuting to the city
Tove Eliassen is responsible for running the smaller of two kindergartens on Ringvassøya island in Karlsøy. The kindergarten in the municipal centre at Hansnes, a 20-minute drive north, is absolutely packed.
Over the past year, she has noticed a clear increase in new children applying for her daycare centre too [in 2023, that is]: ‘More and more people are applying to bring their children here. The trend is going in the right direction’, says Eliassen.
She believes it is too early to say whether the free kindergarten places initiative alone has had an effect [told you so]: ‘I think that when this becomes more widely known, it could have a major impact’, she adds.
The village is close to Tromsø, but plots and houses are cheaper than in the city. Eliassen believes that the proximity to the largest city in Northern Norway makes the village attractive [for now; soon, this influx will place strains on utilities, from water to sewage to electricity, to say nothing about roads]: ‘It's only 45 minutes by car from here to Tromsø. That in itself makes it attractive.’
This is the Measures Zone [really: a special economic zone]
The aim of the action zone is to create an attractive region in which to live, work and do business.
To access the measures, you must live AND work in a municipality in Finnmark and or in a municipality in Nord-Troms.
Companies pay no employer’s national insurance contributions [which means all other taxpayers do—don’t fall for this one, it’s a massive subsidy for employers]
In Norway, all companies pay 14.1% employer's national insurance contributions. For 2023, the exemption applies to labour costs up to NOK 750,000.
Savings per full-year workplace: NOK 75,000 [approx. US$ 7,500]
Write-down of student loans by up to 20% of the original loan amount, limited to a maximum of NOK 30,000 per year [more taxpayer subsidies, this time going to the lenders].
If you work as a primary school teacher, you can have an additional NOK 20,000 per year written down.
Savings: NOK 30-50,000 per year [another approx. US$ 3-5,000]
Throughout Northern Norway, there is an exemption from VAT on electricity.
In the measures zone, you also avoid the electricity tax.
Savings: between 9.51 and 15.44 øre per kWh, estimated at NOK 2,000 per year [another approx. US$ 200].
You Pay Less [Income] Tax
The tax on general income is 22% in 2024, in the measures zone it is 18.5% [Norway has progressive taxation, i.e., much like in the US and elsewhere: the higher your earnings, the higher the (marginal) tax rate].
Estimated savings for an average salary of NOK 550,000: Between NOK 15-20,000 per year [another approx. US$ 1,500-2,000 per year; note this is a sizeable write-down of one’s income tax by approx. 16%, paid for by everyone else].
You don't pay for a kindergarten place as free [sic] kindergarten was introduced from 1 August 2023 [which also means everybody else pays].
Estimated savings of NOK 33,000 per child per year [another approx. US$ 3,300 per year and child]
Settling Ukrainian Refugees
According to figures from Statistics Norway (SSB), the population of Karlsøy increased by 66 people. Of these, the municipality settled 30 refugees, according to figures from the Directorate of Integration and Diversity (IMDI).
The vast majority of refugees settled in Troms and Finnmark are Ukrainian women and children.
Among them, Anastasiia Kobyliatska (21) from Eastern Ukraine came to Hammerfest and got a job as a cook in a hotel kitchen: ‘Hammerfest is like a small village with small streets.’
The population increased by 1,064 people in the entire measures zone. During the same period, the municipalities in Nord-Troms and Finnmark settled 1,017 refugees [there you have it: if it weren’t for refugees settled there by the gov’t, there’d be 47 (!) people who’d be attracted by the above-listed measures].
Thus, the population in the measures zone also increased independently of refugees, in contrast to Troms and Nordland [yes, that’s one way of spinning this; another way of looking at this would be to juxtapose the amount of money—tax-credits, subsidies, ‘free’ kindergarten places, etc.—to these 47 people; oh, lest I forget, did we talk about ‘migrating’ into heavily-subsidised social insurance schemes yet? If not, let’s not forget that refugees don’t have permission to settle where they want, hence I do question the veracity of any of these statements].
In addition to Karlsøy and Kvænangen in Nord-Troms, the population increased in the urban municipalities of Alta, Vadsø, and Sør-Varanger in Finnmark, even when excluding the settlement figures.
‘A good number of Ukrainians want to go home.’
Nils Aarsæther is an expert in local community development and has worked to educate community planners in Northern Norway for decades. A Professor of Community Planning at UiT—The Arctic University of Norway, Nils Aarsæther, believes it is still too early to rejoice:
There has been a large emigration from Nord-Troms and Finnmark in recent years. Young people in particular are moving to the cities to study.
The Russian attack on Ukraine in 2022, and the subsequent flow of refugees, has now had a major impact in Nord-Troms and Finnmark [remember: these refugees are settled by the national gov’t, aren’t permitted to live where they want, and cannot seek work outside their areas of their work permits].
‘The refugees being distributed around the country by the state are making a very important contribution to stabilising the population right now’, Aarsæther confirms.
At the same time, he believes that one must be careful not to believe that Ukrainian refugees alone will save rural Norway from the wave of elderly people that has hit, especially in northern Norwegian communities:
We have had previous examples of large groups of refugees from developing countries arriving in Finnmark and suddenly disappearing overnight [which they do once they change their immigration status and may work and live where they want].
He believes that focusing everything on refugees can therefore be a double-edged sword:
If the war in Ukraine ends, a good number of Ukrainians will move back again.
‘Everyone is Equally Important’
Kristina Torbergsen is a former county counsellor in Troms and Finnmark, and now serves as county mayor of Troms. She comes from Skjervøy municipality in the measures zone. Kristina Torbergsen (Ap), believes that an increase in the population in the measures zone is welcome in any case [don’t mention the massive gov’t spending binge—from Ms. Torbergsen’s Labour Party— that caused the population ‘increase’]
Whether it comes naturally or as a result of an increase in Ukrainian refugees, is irrelevant to her:
Everyone is an equal citizen [sic] here in the north. Ukrainian refugee children are now filling the kindergartens and schools in Troms and Finnmark.
We are happy for all the residents who come, and everyone is equally important to us.
In 1970, Karlsøya, in Karlsøy municipality, was at the centre of the fight against rural depopulation.
At the same time, Torbergsen believes that the increase in population growth in Karlsøy is more closely linked to free kindergarten places and proximity to Tromsø [sure, I also hold various believes, but this is…a bridge too far for me]:
In Karlsøy, they have been good at promoting free kindergartens, short distances to the labour market in Tromsø, student loan write-offs, and other opportunities offered by the measures zone.
The population of Karlsøy municipality increased from 2171 inhabitants in 2023 to 2237 at the end of 2024.
At the same time, Torbergsen believes that more measures are needed to ensure an increased population in Nord-Troms and Finnmark in the long term [and there you go, Ms. Torbergsen contradicted her ‘belief’ within three paragraphs; told you so].
Kristina Torbergsen believes that the state and municipalities must find more measures to ensure that people stay in their local communities [of course a Labour politician believes in more state activism]:
We can see that out-migration is high compared to the number of people moving to the region. So it's important that those who are already here are given good reasons to stay.
Gamnes kindergarten in Karlsøy municipality is built for 30 children and still has the capacity to accept more children.
‘People Are Coming Back’
At Gamnes kindergarten, lunchtime is over. A few hours later, mums and dads turn up at the gate at the end of the working day to pick up their little ones.
It may well become even more crowded when dropping off and picking up children in the coming years.
The municipality needs more and more people to fill vacant positions. Across the municipality, there are 12 vacant teaching positions, both permanent and temporary, at schools, childcare centres, and adult education in the municipality.
In addition, there is also a shortage of child and youth workers in the municipality's day care centres [same in my neck of the woods].
Tove Eliassen finds that more and more old neighbours are returning to the municipality to start families.
‘We also see that people who have moved away from the municipality come back with their families’, she says, and adds that she hopes there will be many more [sure, given all the goodies listed above].
‘May even more families find their way here to Karlsøy. They are all welcome’, concludes Tove Eliassen.
Bottom Lines
And there you have it: without refugees, the gov’t couldn’t even claim anything to show in return for the massive spending outlays.
They do amount, on average, in some 90,000-100,000 NOK (approx. US$ 9-10,000 per year per person, if they make use of the full listing of options, incl. student loan write-offs).
Add to that the fact that employers must not pay 14.1% national insurance contributions per full-time employee per year (2023 numbers).
The ‘measures’ introduced by the gov’t are a massive sinkhole, and they are quite likely to be worse over their lifetime, esp. if many Ukrainians—who, let’s repeat this here, too, didn’t move to the area on their own account—go home or elect to stay in Norway but move elsewhere.
How does one spell ‘reckless gov’t wasteful spending’ in Norwegian, one might ask.
What’s even worse from a post-Covid vaxx perspective is that these ‘nuances’ are entirely absent from the top-linked news item at the website of the Norwegian Institute of Public Health.
Imagine, if you will, the following scenario (or ‘conspiracy theory’, if you’d prefer that term):
In 2022, a massive influx of refugees from Ukraine occurs, which consists mostly of women and children.
They are settled by the national gov’t, with a sizeable chunk going to the North.
In 2023, the war continues, but a good deal of the refugees has continued to, or started, a family.
While I don’t know the vaccination status of Ukrainian refugees, I did check out the relevant website of the Institute of Public Health, last updated on 8 Feb. 2024:
In a situation with great pressure on the arrival system and where priorities must be set, it will be important to maintain the offer of MMR vaccine and polio vaccine on arrival for children and young people in order to prevent outbreaks. This is primarily important in reception centres where many people live in close proximity…
Information about relevant vaccines should be organised and provided, possibly with the help of an interpreter or information material in the asylum seeker's native language. It must be made clear that all vaccinations are voluntary in Norway…
In arrival centres where many people live in close proximity, children and young people who have not previously been vaccinated, have not had measles, or are in doubt about this, should be offered vaccination against measles, mumps and rubella (MMR vaccine) on or shortly after arrival.
Children who have not been vaccinated or who are incompletely vaccinated against polio or diphtheria, or in case of doubt, are offered polio and diphtheria-containing vaccine on or shortly after arrival in reception centres where many people live in close proximity...
Covid vaccines can be offered to children aged 5-17 years according to current guidelines in Norway.
I also checked the above-linked ‘current guidelines’ on Covid injections:
Indication
Protection against COVID-19 caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus.
Does this still qualify as misinformation?
These are the guidelines for taking such a modRNA injection, by the way:
The age group 65 years and older, and nursing home residents,
The age group 18-64 years who are part of a risk group,
Age group 12-17 years with serious underlying illness,
The age group 6 months - 11 years with serious underlying disease after individual assessment.
Pregnant women in the 2nd or 3rd trimester. Vaccination in the 1st trimester may be considered if the pregnant woman has additional diseases that increase the risk further.
Persons who live with (or are similarly close to) immunosuppressed persons.
So, there you have it. The many legacy news items about ‘lower modRNA vaccine uptake’ among ‘foreigners’ and other foreign-born residents are legion.
Hence, my conclusions—until the powers-that-be reveal detailed vaccination data (which they are compiling) in the national SYSVAK register—I consider Ukrainian (and other refugees) ‘under-vaccinated’ relative to Norwegians.
Thus follows the in my opinion reasonable assumption that the ‘increase’ in births in 2023 was mainly due to such ‘under-vaccinated’ foreigners, which permits the masking of the continued reduction of births.
At this point, we must hope that the insane modRNA injection drive has depressed birth rates, and it while it did so in an unprecedented manner (-9% yoy), if we’re ‘lucky’, it’s a one-off, but in late April we’ll know more.
Until then—the more you jab, the less children are born.
In Norway, this is masked by the influx of ‘under-vaccinated’ refugees and the settlement policies of the gov’t.
In the end, the ‘uptick’ in births in 2023 may be—a data artefact.
Change my mind.
No, I think you’re right there in reality. The birth rate is probably still down, and the effect of still-fertile refugees is skewing the data.
Also, remember what happens when you move a population into a new area where the weather and topography are completely different from the place they left. If they weren’t traumatized before, they are now. Some will do well-they would thrive anywhere-but the remainder will go back as soon as it seems safe. Some might not care if it’s safe. So the government realists are speaking the truth to people who don’t want to hear it, unfortunately
Nice follow-up. Again the treacherous politicians are gaslighting the population by pretending the measures to incentivize people to nove north are a great success, when in reality it’s mainly due to ukrainian immigration. And the fact they call for more incentives is a great catch that they don’t actually believe their own lies.
“Replacement theory” is looking less and less like a “conspiracy theory” and more and more like “official govt. policy” all over Europe. The Norwegian birthrate, at 1.4 kids per woman means that the population will contract by about 1/3 every generation - because replacement level is 2.1 kids per woman. Think about that for a moment. 5.5 million to what, 4 million in a generation? But that’s not what’s going to happen, is it? The “population gap” will be filled, and yes you guessed it - it will be filled by immigrants.