What I was most disappointed with when Sweden years ago recognised Palestine as a state, was that we didn't immediately start to deport back to that state all the palestinians here.
They now have a state. They are no longer refugees. They were allowed here as refugees, and only because of their such staus.
Ergo: we can cancel their citizenships and resident-status and send them home.
Well, same with 'safe third country' status for 'asylum seekers'. If they come from any of these (in Austria, that would incl. Afghanistan), then they cannot apply for asylum. Nothing is done, however, and the question morphs into 'why not?' to 'why don't we enforce the laws'.
Neither side is interested in the two-state solution. They both want one state, ruled by their side and ethnically cleansed of the other side. This is why it's very difficult for me to take any sides in this. Ultimately, I think Israel will go poof, though most likely not as a result of foreign invasion (what with those nukes and all). No, the security situation will remain permanently crappy (due to actors whom you cannot reasonably nuke because they are in Israel itself or right next door), the economic situation will keep getting worse and worse, and those who have the option to leave will do so (supposedly half a million or so have left since October 7), in order to protect themselves and their families. So, Israel will increasingly be deprived of both its human capital and the goodies it imports, until it collapses under its own weight. That said, it's possible that the Palestinians will indeed be ethnically cleansed from at least parts of the territory they currently inhabit before Israel gets around to collapsing.
I think the economic woes will become worse once Iran-affiliated groups in Lebanon join the fray and do to the Mediterranean ports what the Houthis are doing in the Red Sea.
Yes, I remember reading that. As for where the Israeli Jews will go: the United States is the obvious option. In any case, the United States will be the undisputed center of Jewish life once Israel collapses, as it will. (As for what happens with ex-Israel once it collapses: why, it'll get turned into an Algeria-style [BLEEP]. Obviously. However, the fact that Algeria promptly turned into [BLEEP] after the French left does not mean that the French rule was in any way sustainable. Same with Israel.) If the Israael lobby had any sense, it would have started lobbying Uncle Sam to open its doors to Israeli Jews yesterday. So far, this is not happening, and so it's all going to be much messier.
Well, I do think that a sizeable chunk of Israelis already holds US passports, and those who, in the eventuality, wish to move there, will probably receive expedited treatment anyways.
As to Algeria before/after French rule, well, obvious, and my suspicion is that once the Israeli/Western multinationals leave, 'others' (here's looking at esp. Chinese companies) would soon move in. My gut feeling is that, after a honeymoon period, the absence of competition will leave a stale aftertaste before too long…
What's China going to do in Israel, though? There are no natural resources there. The only reason anyone cares about Israel is because of all the Biblical (or Quranic, whatever) stuff. If you're Chinese, why would you care about the Biblical stuff?
It's business to cater to many tourists, there's natural gas off the coast of Gaza, and then there's the opportunities to rebuilt whatever (although I doubt that will transpire).
Well, I doubt that 'Westerners' don't understand this, which means: why do they play-act so stupidly? My money is on a despicable variation of 5D chess or the like, and I firmly believe that this is all a psy-op--just consider the Spanish recognition of P. vs. their stance on Kosovo, which, to me, gives away their game.
The 2-state solution has been offered many times. It is always rejected by Hamas, Iran, Hezbollah, et al. They wish a war of annihilation. Now they have one and they are losing. Time to let this go to its natural conclusion — their annihilation. The Socialists and Marxist be damned.
Hamas may very well end up losing, via the ethnic cleansing or genocide of the Palestinians. It's possible. That doesn't mean that Israel will win, though. Israel is a tiny, densely populated piece of desert, dependent for its survival on a distant, overextended superpower in decline. As soon as that superpower turns its back, Israel is toast. No foreign invasion necessary, either. Just the inability to import goodies at an affordable price.
Israel has the most robust economy in the Middle East, despite the relative lack of natural resources. In 1948, 1967, & 1973 the Arabs tried to annihilate Israel. They didn’t just fail, they lost catastrophically. The urban guerrilla war hasn’t been going well for them either. The principal effect of the US has been to restrain Israel.
"The urban guerrilla war hasn't been going well for them either."
Israel is, indeed, successfully killing quite a lot of Palestinians, which is why its international reputation is currently nosediving. "Defeating" Arabs is a different matter. Basically, the only way it can do that is by eliminating most of the Arabs from its territory, via ethnic cleansing or genocide. The former is going to be incredibly difficult, given that no country on the planet is showing any interest in opening its doors to the Palestinians. (Which, mind you, is understandable enough: why should other countries volunteer to import Israel's problems?) That leaves genocide as an option. That, too, is going to be very difficult. Just take a look at the international outcry over the 20-30K Palestinians (I keep seeing different numbers) that Israel has killed so far. Good luck getting away with a million+ dead. And without that, sorry, Israel doesn't get to win. Kill the current crop of Hamas fighters, and just watch it get replaced with another. It's not like there's any shortage of young Palestinians with no prospects in life other than to become martyrs in the process of killing Israeli Jews. Seriously, what other realistic options do Palestinian boys and young men have? Realistically speaking, given the actual conditions of their lives, with no parallel universe available? Those who had the option of leaving did so a long time ago.
Anyway, as you point out, Israel has managed to fend off Arab invasions in the past. And it would seem that the Arabs have learned that this is a losing strategy (which it is). So, no invasion. Far batter to kill a small-ish number of Israelis every once in a while (causing those with the most options - and the most in-demand skills - to pack up and leave, together with their skills), and to make the cost of imported goods skyrocket by targeting cargo ships on the way to Israel. Oh, they really don't need to hit too many of those ships. Just enough to make the cost of insurance skyrocket. (Yes, yes, yes, it's possible to fly those goodies in instead. And what's that going to do to the price of those goodies?) Israel is basically an anti-Russia. That is: Russia can produce almost everything it needs, and what it doesn't produce, it can get from the (currently friendly) China, with which it shares a long common border. Compare that with the tiny, resource-poor Israel, surrounded by enemies.
Who really knows how many people have died in Gaza. Hamas inflates the numbers. Of course they also deliberately put civilians at risk by hiding behind them and kill others as they flee or others thru their incompetent attempts to attack Israel. They steal humanitarian aid and attack NGOs. They’ve been doing that for years. They’ve also been rocketing Israel, unsuccessfully, for years. The war in Gaza would not be going on if they hadn’t tortured, raped and murdered people on October 7th. Instead of pursuing this war at the behest of their Iranian masters they could have been working to establish a working economy. But they weren’t interested. Far from causing people to flee, these attacks have instead caused people to return to Israel to defend it.
I have yet to see any evidence of any significant numbers of people returning to Israel to defend it. Oh, I'm sure some individuals have done precisely that. "Some individuals" will do all sorts of things.
Anyways, there's plenty of blame to go around. My culprit of choice is the British Empire, which, oh yeah, happens not to exist anymore and will therefore not be available to clean up the mess. The question is not who's to blame. The question is: what's a winning strategy for Israel? I see none. They thought their winning strategy was to ethnically cleanse the Palestinians in the aftermath of October 7, but that turned out to be impossible due to the simple fact that no country on Earth wants to take in the Palestinians. And now their strategy just seems to be to keep killing the Palestinians. In the hope of accomplishing what? Do they actually think they can kill them all? Please. They need American backing for that, and look at the chaos that 30K (max) Palestinian deaths have provoked in the United States already. How many more can they kill before the United States just stops sending weapons to them?
Blame the Palestinians all you want. That doesn't change the fact that Israel has no winning strategy in this conflict.
I worked with an American Israeli company. Fully half of their employees returned to Israel to fight in Gaza. Most were US citizens. I’d guess that they also had Israeli citizenship too.
What I was most disappointed with when Sweden years ago recognised Palestine as a state, was that we didn't immediately start to deport back to that state all the palestinians here.
They now have a state. They are no longer refugees. They were allowed here as refugees, and only because of their such staus.
Ergo: we can cancel their citizenships and resident-status and send them home.
Well, same with 'safe third country' status for 'asylum seekers'. If they come from any of these (in Austria, that would incl. Afghanistan), then they cannot apply for asylum. Nothing is done, however, and the question morphs into 'why not?' to 'why don't we enforce the laws'.
It’s amazing how stupid people are, especially western left leaning politicians.
The Palestinians have made it abundantly clear that they don’t want and will NEVER accept a 2 state solution.
They demand a one state solution - a Jew free Palestinian state where Israel used to be.
They’ve said it over and over again. Arafat was offered a two state solution and rejected it.
Hamas has rejected it.
The Iranian backers of Hamas reject it.
The Palestinian people overwhelmingly reject it.
What don’t these stupid western politicians understand? Or do they really understand and secretly agree with Hamas?
Neither side is interested in the two-state solution. They both want one state, ruled by their side and ethnically cleansed of the other side. This is why it's very difficult for me to take any sides in this. Ultimately, I think Israel will go poof, though most likely not as a result of foreign invasion (what with those nukes and all). No, the security situation will remain permanently crappy (due to actors whom you cannot reasonably nuke because they are in Israel itself or right next door), the economic situation will keep getting worse and worse, and those who have the option to leave will do so (supposedly half a million or so have left since October 7), in order to protect themselves and their families. So, Israel will increasingly be deprived of both its human capital and the goodies it imports, until it collapses under its own weight. That said, it's possible that the Palestinians will indeed be ethnically cleansed from at least parts of the territory they currently inhabit before Israel gets around to collapsing.
I think you're right about this. Incidentally, I wrote about this:
https://fackel.substack.com/p/the-end-of-israel
I think the economic woes will become worse once Iran-affiliated groups in Lebanon join the fray and do to the Mediterranean ports what the Houthis are doing in the Red Sea.
Yes, I remember reading that. As for where the Israeli Jews will go: the United States is the obvious option. In any case, the United States will be the undisputed center of Jewish life once Israel collapses, as it will. (As for what happens with ex-Israel once it collapses: why, it'll get turned into an Algeria-style [BLEEP]. Obviously. However, the fact that Algeria promptly turned into [BLEEP] after the French left does not mean that the French rule was in any way sustainable. Same with Israel.) If the Israael lobby had any sense, it would have started lobbying Uncle Sam to open its doors to Israeli Jews yesterday. So far, this is not happening, and so it's all going to be much messier.
Well, I do think that a sizeable chunk of Israelis already holds US passports, and those who, in the eventuality, wish to move there, will probably receive expedited treatment anyways.
As to Algeria before/after French rule, well, obvious, and my suspicion is that once the Israeli/Western multinationals leave, 'others' (here's looking at esp. Chinese companies) would soon move in. My gut feeling is that, after a honeymoon period, the absence of competition will leave a stale aftertaste before too long…
What's China going to do in Israel, though? There are no natural resources there. The only reason anyone cares about Israel is because of all the Biblical (or Quranic, whatever) stuff. If you're Chinese, why would you care about the Biblical stuff?
It's business to cater to many tourists, there's natural gas off the coast of Gaza, and then there's the opportunities to rebuilt whatever (although I doubt that will transpire).
Well, I doubt that 'Westerners' don't understand this, which means: why do they play-act so stupidly? My money is on a despicable variation of 5D chess or the like, and I firmly believe that this is all a psy-op--just consider the Spanish recognition of P. vs. their stance on Kosovo, which, to me, gives away their game.
The 2-state solution has been offered many times. It is always rejected by Hamas, Iran, Hezbollah, et al. They wish a war of annihilation. Now they have one and they are losing. Time to let this go to its natural conclusion — their annihilation. The Socialists and Marxist be damned.
Hamas may very well end up losing, via the ethnic cleansing or genocide of the Palestinians. It's possible. That doesn't mean that Israel will win, though. Israel is a tiny, densely populated piece of desert, dependent for its survival on a distant, overextended superpower in decline. As soon as that superpower turns its back, Israel is toast. No foreign invasion necessary, either. Just the inability to import goodies at an affordable price.
Israel has the most robust economy in the Middle East, despite the relative lack of natural resources. In 1948, 1967, & 1973 the Arabs tried to annihilate Israel. They didn’t just fail, they lost catastrophically. The urban guerrilla war hasn’t been going well for them either. The principal effect of the US has been to restrain Israel.
"The urban guerrilla war hasn't been going well for them either."
Israel is, indeed, successfully killing quite a lot of Palestinians, which is why its international reputation is currently nosediving. "Defeating" Arabs is a different matter. Basically, the only way it can do that is by eliminating most of the Arabs from its territory, via ethnic cleansing or genocide. The former is going to be incredibly difficult, given that no country on the planet is showing any interest in opening its doors to the Palestinians. (Which, mind you, is understandable enough: why should other countries volunteer to import Israel's problems?) That leaves genocide as an option. That, too, is going to be very difficult. Just take a look at the international outcry over the 20-30K Palestinians (I keep seeing different numbers) that Israel has killed so far. Good luck getting away with a million+ dead. And without that, sorry, Israel doesn't get to win. Kill the current crop of Hamas fighters, and just watch it get replaced with another. It's not like there's any shortage of young Palestinians with no prospects in life other than to become martyrs in the process of killing Israeli Jews. Seriously, what other realistic options do Palestinian boys and young men have? Realistically speaking, given the actual conditions of their lives, with no parallel universe available? Those who had the option of leaving did so a long time ago.
Anyway, as you point out, Israel has managed to fend off Arab invasions in the past. And it would seem that the Arabs have learned that this is a losing strategy (which it is). So, no invasion. Far batter to kill a small-ish number of Israelis every once in a while (causing those with the most options - and the most in-demand skills - to pack up and leave, together with their skills), and to make the cost of imported goods skyrocket by targeting cargo ships on the way to Israel. Oh, they really don't need to hit too many of those ships. Just enough to make the cost of insurance skyrocket. (Yes, yes, yes, it's possible to fly those goodies in instead. And what's that going to do to the price of those goodies?) Israel is basically an anti-Russia. That is: Russia can produce almost everything it needs, and what it doesn't produce, it can get from the (currently friendly) China, with which it shares a long common border. Compare that with the tiny, resource-poor Israel, surrounded by enemies.
Who really knows how many people have died in Gaza. Hamas inflates the numbers. Of course they also deliberately put civilians at risk by hiding behind them and kill others as they flee or others thru their incompetent attempts to attack Israel. They steal humanitarian aid and attack NGOs. They’ve been doing that for years. They’ve also been rocketing Israel, unsuccessfully, for years. The war in Gaza would not be going on if they hadn’t tortured, raped and murdered people on October 7th. Instead of pursuing this war at the behest of their Iranian masters they could have been working to establish a working economy. But they weren’t interested. Far from causing people to flee, these attacks have instead caused people to return to Israel to defend it.
I have yet to see any evidence of any significant numbers of people returning to Israel to defend it. Oh, I'm sure some individuals have done precisely that. "Some individuals" will do all sorts of things.
Anyways, there's plenty of blame to go around. My culprit of choice is the British Empire, which, oh yeah, happens not to exist anymore and will therefore not be available to clean up the mess. The question is not who's to blame. The question is: what's a winning strategy for Israel? I see none. They thought their winning strategy was to ethnically cleanse the Palestinians in the aftermath of October 7, but that turned out to be impossible due to the simple fact that no country on Earth wants to take in the Palestinians. And now their strategy just seems to be to keep killing the Palestinians. In the hope of accomplishing what? Do they actually think they can kill them all? Please. They need American backing for that, and look at the chaos that 30K (max) Palestinian deaths have provoked in the United States already. How many more can they kill before the United States just stops sending weapons to them?
Blame the Palestinians all you want. That doesn't change the fact that Israel has no winning strategy in this conflict.
I worked with an American Israeli company. Fully half of their employees returned to Israel to fight in Gaza. Most were US citizens. I’d guess that they also had Israeli citizenship too.