Limping Towards Catharsis III: Winter, and Change, is Coming (Soon)

Covidistan at the Crossroads: part three of a 3-part mini-series on events and developments in late November and early December 2021

I may have been overly optimistic when drafting my last post on the Covidistan situation yesterday. While I slightly adjusted the title of the post (no worries, the original URL stays the same), I stand by my concluding ‘musings’:

‘It’s a lose-lose situation for the Covidistan régime, but I cannot see how the Committee of Public Safety can continue without protests reaching fever pitch.

(…)

I move to call on the President to dismiss the government and announce new elections.

In any ‘normal’ country, this would happen.

If it doesn’t, it’s time to bring out the pitchforks.’

Today, we learned ‘more’ about the shape of things to come, and while I personally watch these disgusting shenanigans with ever-growing loathing, my above thoughts offer three hypotheses, which I shall further explore in this post:

1. Thesis: the Covidistan régime is trapped in a corner of its own making (here).

2. Antithesis: Covidistan is an abnormal country (here).

3. Synthesis: what will bring (likely) bring about change?

Part III: winter, and change, is coming

So, in this final part, let’s instead see how the people are reacting to this mess. Are they adhering to the house arrest measures? According to Der Standard, we learn, on 30 Nov., that ‘Austrians have greatly reduced their mobility, but not as much as during the lockdown at about the same time a year ago’. There were 37% less people in shopping avenues, 26% less train travelers, and 19% fewer students in technical-vocational schools, according to mobile phone company ‘3’. In all, mobility was down by some 54%.

Yet, ‘compared to the previous year, the lockdown effect has certainly decreased’, with a current mobility decline of only about 18%. According to the country’s main cell phone provider ‘A1’, data analysed during the first lockdown in spring 2020 (23-27 March) showed that 56% of the population travelled less than 1km per day (prior to Covid, some 27% of Austrians did so). In the second (autumn 2020) and third lockdowns (spring 2021), these numbers hovered around 25 percent. In short, ‘compared to the previous year, the lockdown effect has certainly decreased’, concludes Rudolf Schrefl, CEO of ‘3’.

Yet, apart from this notional increase in ‘passive resistance’ (non-compliance), there is also rising anger. Vienna’s venerable Die Presse newspaper (the country’s NYT equivalent), reported—as did other media—of continued protests in the middle of the last week, which is about as uncommon a sight as imaginable in post-1945 Austria (my emphasis):

‘In all federal states today [1 Dec.], there were protests against the Covid measures, especially against compulsory vaccination…protests were held in several states on Wednesday…

Protestors carried banners and placards that read, e.g., “Teachers against mandatory vaccination” and “If lies really had short legs, there would be mainly Lilliputians (sic!) in the federal government”. Around 1 p.m., the protests [in Upper Austria’s state capital Linz], which included many young people and children, including babies in strollers, started toward the Landhaus [seat of the state government]. Pot rattling, trumpets, and chants of “resistance” resounded across the square, with protestors waving “No to compulsory vaccination” placards and quite a few participants had red roses with them, which they laid at the feet of the police officers.’

There were a few thousands of protestors in Graz (police claimed 1,500, I’d say there were more), and their placards read, among others ‘Hands off our children’ and, in keeping with the season, ‘Advent, Advent, the rule of law burns’ (this is a pun, for there’s a German Christmas song which rhymes, and the German-language text also rhymes). Some protestors wore tinfoil hats, some even wore masks. In the course of the afternoon, more and more participants joined the demonstration, according to Die Presse.

There were protests in all other states, i.e., across the entire country. I’d emphasise that these took place on a Wednesday (early) afternoon, i.e., it’s not exactly the best time of day for doing so. Note, further, that, yes, there’s far-right protesters among them, but who says that the rule of law wouldn’t apply to them? Far more ‘regular’ people were there, including parents with toddlers, and there’s a good deal of wit to these protests. This is all excellent news, for derision is the main protest against tyranny.

If you’re supportive of the régime, however, this isn’t about policy disagreements or civic engagement. We’ve already encountered the worrisome, if not despotic, attitude of especially the Greens (the ÖVP mainly deals in patronizing condescension, which is also objectionable), but here’s how the above protests are treated in Der Standard on 1 Dec. 2021 (my emphases):

Caption reads: ‘Blind Rage Against Vaccination: Once again, anti-vaxxers have taken to the streets. The tone is clearly getting harsher, and police presence around hospitals across Austria has been increased’

This is insidious, and it’s part and parcel of the gaslighting I explored earlier that’s employed to badmouth protests. Here’s mor from Der Standard, which allows you to directly compare the (select) quotations cited above with the following ones:

‘The call of opponents of the Corona measures to a “warning strike” is apparently increasingly heard. In many places on Wednesday, the health-threatening slogan “closeness without masks” was heard. In several states, demonstrations were held specifically against the planned mandatory vaccination…

But the targets of the heated marches are not only politburos, but also hospitals. While inside, doctors and nurses fight for the lives of their Covid patients, anti-vaxxers demonstrate outside, and in many places medical staff are mobbed as they leave.’

There’s so much dishonesty here, it makes even Trump seem like a paragon of virtue, for literally the next paragraph reads:

‘The situation outside hospitals has become so tense recently that police increased their presence around the hospitals throughout the country. “At the moment it is very quiet, no demonstrations have been announced yet, but we increased patrols around the hospitals…”, Carinthia’s police spokesman Rainer Dionisio told Der Standard. The same precautions will also be taken in front of the hospitals in the other federal states.’

Note the absence of protests outside hospitals.

On 3 Dec. 2021, this was how state broadcaster ORF reported on the consequences of this rising tide of protests (my emphasis):

‘Security measures are ramped up: the Linz protests against the Covid measures last Wednesday [see above] has triggered the following consequences in Upper Austria. The mood was so heated that security precautions for certain people and buildings are now being increased…the aggressive mood of many demonstrators is causing worry among [party and bureaucratic] officials representing the state. Erich Watzl, Director of the State Administration, for example, says that he has been working in the Landhaus for decades, but he has never experienced such aggressiveness before…

It was therefore decided to tighten security measures at the end of the year. Among other things, there will be stricter access restrictions for the state’s official buildings, all district administrative offices, and the state administrative court…

The Verfassungsschutz [domestic intelligence services, comparable to the British MI5 or the equally-named security agency in Germany] is preparing daily situation reports and keeps a close eye on social media. [State Police Commander] Andreas Pilsl points to a new phenomenon in Austria: there has never been so much personal protection details, even for the highest officials, as is currently the case.’

Gee, it makes one wonder what may be causing this sharp uptick in dissent. It’s almost as if the régime introduced a plan that’s hugely unpopular, and instead of measured approaches, the state’s ‘iron fist’ is revealed.

Do note, though, that the Austrian police is overstretched and overworked while it’s also only partially reliable at this point (the major police union is, after all, an affiliate of the Freedom Party).

Bottom line: the main question is—how long will police cover for these politicians?

Limping On

Yesterday, around noon, state broadcaster ORF went public with ‘breaking news’, which reveals all at-once who currently rules over Covidistan. Entitled ‘ÖVP Creates Nehammer Chancellor’, this is really all you need to know to understand the fundamentally anti-democratic and anti-republican attitudes that govern the Committee of Public Safety’s minds.

Today, there’s going to be another day of protest, this time in downtown Vienna. Sentiments are rising, ranging from demonisation of the protesters among the régime’s supporters to those who demand new elections in light of Thursday’s resignations of Schallenberg and Treasury Secretary Blümel.

Keep in mind that ‘Austria’ was refounded by the main parties, the Socialists (SPÖ) and the Christian-Socials (ÖVP) in 1945. This despicable legacy means that what follows below might seem odd at first, for who in his or her right mind wouldn’t disagree with the demand for new elections at this point?

You’re right, the Covid régime consisting of the ÖVP and the Greens, because they can read the polls as well as you and me: both parties would lose, and the only winner would be the Freedom Party.

Hence, it was announced yesterday that Interior Minister Karl Nehammer would be designated new chancellor, nominated by the ÖVP’s leaders. You read that right: in a Friday morning meeting, the ÖVP’s leaders simply substituted one discredited member of the Committee of Public Safety (Schallenberg) with another. There were other changes among the ÖVP’s cabinet ministers, but the message is clear:

There will be no new elections (because they would drastically cut the ÖVP’s vote by about half), and there’s no backing off.

Here’s ORF on this, as of yesterday:

‘No stone is left unturned in the ÖVP government team: Former Interior Minister Karl Nehammer is to become party leader and chancellor. Nehammer made the announcement after a party board meeting on Friday. Education Minister Heinz Faßmann also has to go—and there are several new faces. The new appointments show a clear signature of the strong state organisations.’

So far, so classical in terms of Austrian pre-Covid politics. But this time is different, and the most obvious failure—among many, many others I named (and many more that could be called out)—is the president. Alexander van der Bellen, the current incumbent, was the Green Party’s candidate in 2016, and while he oversaw a veritable revolving door of resignations, new appointments, and the like during his tenure, but this is quite something to behold.

In his televised statement yesterday, van der Bellen refused to contemplate new elections, which prompted even (!) state broadcaster ORF to publish this gem:

‘In his speech at the beginning of October [on Kurz’ resignation], President Alexander van der Bellen asked on behalf of many people in the country, “What is happening now?”, knowing that many people are in danger of losing track of political events. In fact, the political merry-go-round has been spinning faster in recent years than ever before in the republic-including changes of chancellor.’

No word was said or heard by the president and the Committee about ‘popular sovereignty’, the divisive vax mandate, or the need to have elections.

Instead, the two main opposition parties (SPÖ and FPÖ), had this to say:

‘The opposition is currently criticising the many changes at Ballhausplatz [the chancellery]: SPÖ parliamentary party leader Jörg Leichtfried said the ÖVP’s leaders were “grappling with internal power games and appointments” in the midst of a pandemic, and that the ÖVP was doing everything to stay in power.

FPÖ chairman Herbert Kickl was “stunned” and said that it would probably take “only two or three more chancellors to reach Christmas”. Ministers would change their jobs “like migrant workers”, with NEOS chairwoman Beate Meinl-Reisinger adding that it “hurts her heart” that the ÖVP treats the highest offices as “party-political opportunities [Verschubmasse]”. All three parliamentary groups spoke out in favor of a new election.’

Alas, the sovereign is not to be asked. Not yet, at least.

People I spoke with in Covidistan are guessing that the Committee will disintegrate early next year.

What will (most likely) happen next?

My personal estimate is: while a lot depends on the turnout today—it’s going to be around 2-4 degrees, with rain prognosticated—I don’t see any way forward for the Committee.

Today’s protests may be smaller than anticipated by anti-régime protestors, but anti-Committee sentiment is running high. The country is quite divided, all due to the carelessness of the Committee, and at some point, the cracks, which are visible already, will become too wide to be papered over by discourse.

In other words: if the Committee is ‘lucky’, they might get through the pre-holiday season. I remain skeptical—I just got off the phone with family in Vienna: word on the street has it that while the Committee hasn’t publicly stated so, restaurants will remain closed until Christmas.

Meanwhile, over at the Vienna General Hospital, long-serving staff are flabbergasted: they struggle to find health care workers, and especially younger medical doctors’ outright aggressiveness towards ‘the unvaxxed’ who ‘should be denied treatment’.

Something will give before too long.

In the meantime, if you’re in the area, grab ye pitchforks, and off to Vienna we go.