Excess Mortality among Young Austrians off the Charts, Closely Correlated w/Jabs

'The increase of the excess mortality is positively correlated (both temporally and spatially) only with the number of vaccinations' in 2022 and 2023, according to a new pre-print by prof. Reitzner

A new pre-print on excess mortality and Covid-19 in Austria has been posted on Research Gate. Written by Prof. Matthias Reitzner (Mathematics, U Osnabrück; faculty profile), it is entitled ‘Excess Mortality in Austria during the COVID-19 Pandemic’, and it is quite—something.

Here’s the abstract:

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the mortality in Austria is investigated. A recent pre-pandemic generation life table is developed. Using this pre-pandemic life table, the expected number of deaths for the years 2020 to 2023 is derived. Comparing the expected number of deaths to the observed number of deaths during the pandemic years yields the excess mortality for Austria in the years 2020 to 2023.

The Austrian life table can be adjusted to the Austrian federal states, yielding for each Austrian federal state the excess mortality for the pandemic years. The excess mortality varies substantially across federal states and during the pandemic years.

The results are discussed against some COVID-19 specific quantities, yielding correlations of excess mortality with COVID-19 infections, COVID-19 deaths and vaccination rates.

And here’s from his discussion (references omitted, emphases mine):

The estimates of excess mortality are based on the state-of-the-art method of actuarial science and data from Statistik Austria and AGES [Austria’s FDA].

The investigations first revealed, that the total number of excess deaths in Austria is increasing throughout the pandemic. This seems to be surprising due to several reasons.

Most probably, many and maybe even most vulnerable persons already died in the first (and second) year of the pandemic and the number of vulnerable persons with a severe or even deathly course of disease should decrease. In addition, most people should have been infected after some while and be vaccinated in the second pandemic year, and hence should be immunized which at least should prevent severe courses of disease. Thus it could have been expected that the excess deaths should decrease over time instead of increase. The second observation is that excess mortality substantially varied across the federal states in Austria, ranging from 1,3% to 12,6% in the first pandemic year, and is mainly increasing and much more concentrated in the third pandemic year ranging from 7,6% to 10,3%.

Comparing excess mortality to the reported number of COVID-19 deaths reveals that the number of COVID-19 deaths largely exceeds the observed amount of excess mortality in the first pandemic year. Then excess mortality is increasing and the number of COVID-19 deaths is decreasing, which amounts in the fact that in the third pandemic year the observed huge excess mortality largely exceeds the number of COVID-19 deaths. This implies that at least in the second and third pandemic year the excess mortality cannot be explained by COVID-19 deaths.

Given the federal state data on excess mortality and COVID-19 infections, what can probably be ruled out as a possible factor influencing excess mortality are long-term mortality effects following SARS-CoV-2 infections (i.e., long COVID) because in the third pandemic year the correlation between infection rate and excess mortality turns out to be negative [infection, if it occurred prior to ‘vaccination™’, seems to help whereas taking any number of shots and getting infected later on doesn’t]. I.e. the higher the number of infections in the first and second year of the pandemic in a federal state, the lower the excess mortality was in the third year of the pandemic.

With regard to the connection between excess mortality and vaccination rate the picture is more complex. Because there is a third variable influencing excess mortality and vaccination rate, one is forced to investigate the decrease resp. increase of excess mortality as soon as the vaccination campaign started. The observation from Section 3.4 that the increase in excess mortality in the second and third year of the pandemic are positively correlated to the vaccination rate is an irrefutable empirical fact, and means that the more people have been vaccinated in a federal state the more excess mortality increased. Such a pattern would be expected if the vaccinations had caused more negative effects instead of positive effects [this is tantamount to contradicting, in so many words, all the BS politicos and journos have uttered in this regard].

The observed correlation pattern for the pandemic years regarding Austrian federal states reflects a spatial observation, whereas the increase of excess mortality over the pandemic years is a temporal observation. In other words, particularly high and increasing excess mortality occurs both in regions and in time windows with high vaccination rates. This finding supports the suspicion that the negative side effects of the vaccination may possibly [ahem] outweigh the positive effects.

Yet it must be pointed out that all these results are correlative relationships, these observations do not necessarily mean that the observed differences in mortality between federal states can be causally attributed to the different vaccination rates or are independent of other causes of death.

To summarize, from a statistical perspective, the observed pattern is the following: In the first year of the pandemic, excess mortality and the reported number of COVID-19 deaths are highly correlated, suggesting a connection between excess mortality and COVID-19 deaths.

But note, that the reported number of COVID deaths greatly overestimates the excess mortality that has occurred. In the second and third pandemic year the reported number of COVID-19 deaths decreases, but excess mortality increases. The increase of the excess mortality is positively correlated (both temporally and spatially) only with the number of vaccinations. This suggests that side effects of the COVID-19 vaccinations may [ahem] have a negative impact on mortality. These findings support recent concerns about the COVID-vaccinations (Schwab et al., Faksova et al. , Fraiman et al., Kuhbandner et al.) and urgently ask for more detailed investigations concerning the high excess mortality in the second and third pandemic year and the connection with the vaccination rates.

Bottom Lines

If this paper passes muster (peer-review), it’ll tear a huge, new hole into any politician, ‘expert™’, and ‘journo™’ who sang the ‘safe and effective’ song.

Esp. the last sentence is about as drastic as statisticians appear to get when they yell the equivalent of ‘Houston, we’ve got a problem’.

Hence, politicians, ‘experts™’, and ‘journos™’ will continue to sing, albeit a new tune, that of ‘correlation ≠ causation’, which confirms the statistics professor’s final sentence: there’s a clear signal, it would appear, and by refusing to take these findings seriously.

Prof. Reitzner, by the way, isn’t an unknown capacity among the German-speaking ‘Covid deniers™’, as this news item from the U Münster, from 2023 shows:

The exact level of excess mortality at which point in time varies. What is undisputed, however, is that significantly more people died in 2022 and in some cases also in 2023 than assumed—so many that the spikes cannot be explained solely by deaths in connection with a coronavirus infection.

The cause is the COVID-19 vaccination: this theory has been the subject of public debate for months, and not just by radical anti-vaccination activists. The supposed evidence was provided by a study by Regensburg psychologist Christof Kuhbandner and Osnabrück mathematician Matthias Reitzner, according to which excess mortality and the vaccination campaign are linked in time.’

So, Professors Kuhbahndner and Reitzner have been at this before, but I suspect it’ll get too tricky to refute these correlations, esp. by people who aren’t statisticians, such as most, if not all, politicians, ‘experts™’, and ‘journos™’.

How bad is this massive increase? Well, it’s very telling and it affects esp. ‘young’ people under 50:

This is far from ‘normal’ nor can these massive hikes—esp. in the age cohort 15-29 years of age—be explained away with something ‘correlation ≠ causation’.

Nor is Austria an outlier in this regard; I’ve written about this extensively, too, with respect to Norway:

'I've never seen anything like this': Excess Mortality Among Young People in Norway

While I don’t know when the wall of silence—omertà—will break, my guess is: the day before the shooting phase of WW3 commences in earnest and we’ll all be having ‘other concerns’.