Covid Update from Norway, Week 46

Were there really no hospitalisations of "unvaccinated"?

In its most recent available report, the Norwegian Institute of Public Health published the following main findings:

• There was a slight decrease by around 10% of new hospitalisations with Covid-19 as the main cause.

• 146 new patients have so far been reported in week 46, after 163 in week 44.

• 20 new patients have been reported as admitted to intensive care in week 46, after 27 in week 45.

The vaccination status of these newly hospitalised patients with Covid-19 as the main cause in week 46 is known in 133 cases (out of 146):

‘Of these 47 (35 %) were unvaccinated and 90 (60 %) were fully vaccinated [the highlights don’t say anything about the other 5%].’

Shifting Narrative on ‘Vaccination’ and Hospitalisation

Contrary to the past weeks (see, e.g., my take on week 45), the most glaring difference is the absence of the hitherto prevailing declaration that ‘the incidence of new hospital admissions is significantly higher among the unvaccinated than the vaccinated’.

In its stead, the same paragraph now incorporates the following wording (my emphases):

‘In the last week, the average incidence has increased especially among people ≥75 years and unvaccinated people 45-64 years. The trend has somewhat stayed the same among those ≥75 years. Among new hospital admissions, the vaccinated have a higher median age (76), and a larger share of them belong to risk groups with a risk of severe Covid-19 disease course (77%) than the unvaccinated. Amongst the latter, the median age is 49 and 28% of them belong to risk groups with a risk of severe Covid-19 disease course.’

Let’s unpack this briefly.

As I explained recently, there is a clear correlation between risk of Covid-19, which increases dramatically with age. This much is obvious from all data from all countries.

Now that the IPH has removed that declarative statement about the ‘significantly higher’ incidence ‘among the unvaccinated’ compared to ‘the vaccinated’, we’ll have to deal with the implicit information in the above-quoted paragraph.

Fortunately, the weekly report provides some clues (the below tab. 18 is on p. 39):

‘The average incidence has increased especially among people ≥75 years’, the summary reads. This means, in light of the data in tab. 18, the incidence has increased among a subset of the overall population (65+ years) where vaccine uptake is given as 97% (1 dose), 96% (2 doses), and 32% (3 doses).

‘The average incidence has increased especially among…unvaccinated people 45-64 years’. This means, in light of the data in tab. 18, the incidence has increased among a subset of the overall population (45-64 years) where vaccine uptake is given as 92-96% (1 dose), 88-93% (2 doses), and 2-3% (3 doses).

In other words, the average incidence increased among virtually all Norwegian seniors, as opposed to c. 7-12% of the ‘unvaccinated’ between 45-64 years of age.

Let’s move on to deaths (my emphasis):

‘The number of weekly deaths has been increasing the last five weeks. 45 Covid-19 associated deaths have so far been registered in week 46, after 42 in week 45. The last four weeks, the median age of the deceased was 85 years (lower-upper quartile: 79-92 years). The number of deaths in week 46 is the highest recorded in 2021 and close to the same level as in the beginning of the pandemic.’

No big changes here; Covid-19 is primarily correlated with age and co-morbidities (e.g., obesity, diabetes, cardio-vascular problems), there’s no significant alteration to these factors to be observed in Norway.

Hospitalisation and Vaccination Status

Look how much the tables 5 have changed from week 45 (tab. 5, at p. 12) to week 46 (tab. 5, at p. 12): not only did the category ‘partially vaccinated’ vanish, there’s now much more to see (the first tab. 5 is from week 45):

This tab. 5 is from week 46.

Do you see the difference?

In week 45, the total of ‘unvaccinated’ hospitalisations since 28 December 2020 (the beginning of the vaccination campaign in Norway) is given as 2,815 vs. 92 ‘partially vaccinated’, and 514 ‘fully vaccinated’.

In week 46, the total of ‘unvaccinated’ hospitalisations since 28 December 2020 (the beginning of the vaccination campaign in Norway) is still recorded as 2,815 vs. 598 ‘fully vaccinated’.

If this is actually true, there were no hospital admissions of ‘unvaccinated’ people in Norway in week 46.

Let this sink in.

But.

This is not what the website of the IPH claims. Compare this data—which I took from the Norwegian weekly report (as linked above) with the English summary provided on the IPH’s website (see screen shot below):

Only one of these data points can be true.

Given the inconsistency of available data (see here), I propose the following ‘way out’: let’s assume, for the sake of the argument, that the ‘true’ number is somewhere in the middle between 0 and 47, which would still give us some 23-24 ‘unvaccinated’ hospitalisations, which would be some 17-18% ‘unvaccinated’ hospital admissions.

Much lower, granted, but this doesn’t explain this huge discrepancy.

Maybe I’m seeing things that aren’t there. Any takers?

(For those who don’t read Norwegian, Google Translate does a fairly o.k. job of rendering Norwegian into something approximating English.)