Covid Update from Norway

(Preliminary) Official Numbers from Week 44 (1-7 Nov. 2021)

Every Wednesday, the Norwegian Institute of Public Health (IPH) publishes a new weekly report, and here are the key findings for week 44 (1-7 Nov. 2021):

• 135 new patients have so far been reported in week 44, after 111 in week 43.

Yet, the report also cautions that these ‘figures for the last week are expected to be adjusted upwards’. This means, in plain English, that despite a three-day time-lag between reporting period and publication, the IPC doesn’t have all relevant data available.

Note that Norway is one of the most digitally integrated countries.

Note, further, that the somewhat ‘surprising’ data below is thus potentially misleading.

That said, let’s continue to unpack this ever so briefly (my emphasis):

• There has been an increasing trend in the age group ≥65 years in the last four weeks, with 73 new patients admitted in week 44 compared with 30 in week 41, and the number in the age group ≥65 years is now corresponding to the highest level in the spring of 2021.

• There are preliminary reports of 28 new patients admitted to intensive care units in week 44, after 21 in week 43

The vaccination status of these newly hospitalised patients is known in 120 cases (out of these 135):

‘Of these, 56 (47 %) were unvaccinated and 61 (51 %) were fully vaccinated. The incidence of new hospital admissions is significantly higher among the unvaccinated than the vaccinated.’

Furthermore, the weekly update also contains this nugget (again, my emphasis):

‘In the last week, the average incidence [of hospital admissions] has increased especially among people ≥75 years and unvaccinated people 45–64 years. Among 415 fully vaccinated people admitted to hospital with COVID-19 as the main cause to date [since the beginning of the ‘immunisation’ program in Norway], the median age is 77 years (lower – upper quartile: 65-84), and 321 (77 %) belong to risk groups with a high or moderate risk of a severe COVID-19 disease course.’

Let that sink in: more than three quarters of all ‘vaccinated’ and hospitalised patients belonged to ‘risk groups with a high or moderate risk’.

While the weekly report doesn’t provide any more specifics on those risk groups, the IPH’s website does have commensurate information available elsewhere:

‘Some groups are at particular risk of developing more severe illness (resulting in hospital admission, intensive care or even death), but even the majority of people in risk groups will experience mild symptoms.

The risk of a severe COVID-19 disease course rises with age and underlying medical conditions, with men being at greater risk than women. In rare cases, younger people without known risk factors may also experience severe illness.’

Further down below, there is this under the header ‘groups with moderate/ high risk’:

• Residents of nursing homes

• Over 70 years of age* 

• Severe health conditions, regardless of age**

• Solid organ transplant

• Immunodeficiency

• Hematologic cancer in the last five years

• Other active cancer, ongoing or recently completed treatment for cancer (especially immunosuppressive therapy, radiotherapy targeted at the lungs or chemotherapy)

• Neurological or muscular disease with impaired coughing strength or lung function (e.g., ALS and cerebral palsy)

• Down’s Syndrome

• Chronic kidney disease and renal failure

There are two to three footnotes here that, as in many super-academic texts, contain invaluable nuggets of information (my emphasis):

‘* There is an exponential (sliding) increase in risk from 70 years and over. Age is the most important independent risk factor.

** Other serious and/or chronic diseases that are not mentioned may also increase the risk of serious illness and death from COVID-19. This is assessed individually by a doctor.

*** These diseases/conditions can result in a high risk of severe illness and even death, including amongst younger people.’

The IPH’s website is a treasure trove of information, and I’ll go down that particular rabbit hole for you in the near future (trust me on this, there’s a lot of additional, if—at least partially—contradictory information available).

So, let’s summarise this post:

• The data is incomplete, hence the preliminary relation between ‘un-/vaccinated’ hospital admissions with Covid-19 as the main cause will change.

• As I explained in yesterday’s post, in Norway (as elsewhere), there is a clear shift in the trend of hospital admission: 4-5 weeks ago, the majority of these were ‘unvaccinated’ people, and it is ‘highly likely’ that the above-cited relation (47 : 51 of admissions) will shift further; my guesstimate is that it will be at least as high as in the preceding week (61 % ‘vaccinated’), if not higher.

Finally, a brief word on the IPH’s risk assessment.

Note that the weekly report always speaks of ‘groups’ and associated (derivative) risks on the group level. While we’re admittedly well past the point of merely wondering out aloud about such proclamations, it is, indeed, curious to cross-reference the weekly updates with the IPH’s dedicated information about ‘risk groups’.

Last updated on 24 Sept. 2021, the section under the header ‘Assessment of risk for people who are not vaccinated or have not had COVID-19’ is a gem in and of itself:

Why, pray tell, do we use blanket programmes, such as ‘immunisation’ campaigns and wholesale ‘lockdowns’ to counter an essentially medical problem that is, in the IPH’s own words, something else entirely: ‘Risk assessment applies at a group level, not to the individual.’