Covid Update from Norway, Week 43

This is what vaccine failure looks in Scandinavia

In its most recent available report, the Norwegian Institute of Public Health published the following main findings:

• 105 new patients have so far been reported in week 43, after 79 in week 42.

• There has been an increasing trend in the age group ≥ 65 years in the last four weeks, with 59 new patients admitted in week 43 compared with 28 in week 40, and the number in the age group ≥ 65 years is now at the same level as in spring 2021.

• 17 new patients have been reported as admitted to intensive care in week 43, after 12 in week 42.

The vaccination status of these newly hospitalised patients is known in 99 (out of these 105):

‘Of these 99, 33 (33 %) were unvaccinated and 60 (61 %) were fully vaccinated. The incidence of new hospital admissions is significantly higher among the unvaccinated than the vaccinated.’

Although seemingly contradictory at first, both statements are ‘true’ (albeit not to the same degree), and to unpack—explore—this notion, let’s take a brief tour through the Institute’s webpages.

Here’s the dedicated website informing the public about the ‘Coronavirus immunisation programme’ (see here), in particular about the ‘key figures’ as of 8 Nov. 2021:

• Number of people vaccinated with first dose: 4,212,525

• Number of people vaccinated with first dose: 3,757,098

• Proportion (%) 18 years or older vaccinated with first dose: 91.4

• Proportion (%) 18 years or older vaccinated with second dose: 87

These numbers are quite impressive, but they are also misleading in two main ways:

First, according to World’O’Meter, as of 5 Nov. 2021, Norway’s population was 5,479,476 people, of whom everyone above age 12 is eligible for the Covid vaccination programme. Thus follows, in the words of the above-referenced weekly report, that

‘As of 31 October, 78 % of the entire population, 91% of all 16 years and older and 91 % of all 18 years and older have been vaccinated with at least one dose. The corresponding figures for the 2nd dose are 69 % (all), 85 % (16 years and older) and 87 % (18 years and older). As of 31 October, a total of 91 % of 16-17 year olds and 71 % of 12-15 year olds were vaccinated with one dose. A total of 6 % of all 65 years and older have been vaccinated with a booster dose.’

In total, this corresponds to an overall vaccination rate of ± 76 % of the entire resident population of Norway. Shame on you, if you took the official numbers at face-value.

Second, this means that the above statement about ‘the incidence of new hospital admissions [being] significantly higher among the unvaccinated than the vaccinated’ is only true insofar as the unvaccinated hospital admissions for Covid as the main cause is related to the entire resident population of Norway.

Yes, 33 % (week 43) of these newly hospitalised patients were unvaccinated, out of an overall population of whom ± 76 % are vaccinated to date.

This means that the difference is about 10 % in week 43. Now I don’t know enough about statistics to claim this is ‘highly significant’, but why not check the incidence from the past, say, three or four weeks?

Week 40 (4-10 Oct. 2021, details on p. 3): 53 new hospitalisations with Covid as the main cause, whose vaccination status was known in 46 cases; the relationship was 26 unvaccinated (57 %) vs. 20 fully (twice) vaccinated (43 %).

Week 41 (11-17 Oct. 2021, details p. 3): 59 new hospitalisations with Covid as the main cause, known vaccination status in 54 cases: 24 unvaccinated (44 %) vs. 30 fully (twice) vaccinated (56 %).

Week 42 (18-24 Oct. 2021, details p. 3): 75 new hospitalisations with Covid as the main cause, known vaccination status in 66 cases: 25 unvaccinated (38 %) vs. 37 fully (twice) vaccinated (56 %).

Week 43 (25-31 Oct. 2021, details p. 3): 105 new hospitalisations with Covid as the main cause, known vaccination status in 99 cases: 33 unvaccinated (33 %) vs. 60 fully (twice) vaccinated (61 %).

That’s what we know for the past month: a drastic decrease in hospitalisations due to Covid among ‘the unvaccinated’, with a commensurate increase among ‘the vaccinated’. To me, this is what vaccine failure looks like—in real time.

Do note, too, that there’s not much room for additional vaccination among Norwegian residents:

Also: given these numbers, why would the authorities continue to ‘recommend’ vaccination as the way out of the ‘pandemic’? If anything, the best guess is that these numbers will get worse and worse for ‘the vaccinated’ in the weeks to come, hence the remaining quarter of the population should, in all likelihood, forgo the offer to get ‘vaccinated’ against Covid.