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Rikard's avatar

I can't help thinking of those billions of dollars the US DoD "found" a couple of days ago. Maybe someone made Wagner an offer?

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ExcessDeathsAU's avatar

DING DING DING WE HAVE A WINNER

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PERSISTENT OBJECTOR to new IHR's avatar

Did I get that wrong or were there differences between Ministry of Defence and Putin in the past, Western minded MoD personnel covertly not supporting Putin's goals (sabotaging)? I had heard as much months ago. In that case I don't know if I would see it as treason even though technically it might still be. If this is true that they want to avoid fighting in Russia proper, that is so wise, isn't it, the West would immediately rush to the scene to stop war crimes and bring democracy. Which attempt of interfering would be insane, but insane they are acting all the time, so...

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epimetheus's avatar

Well, as far as I understood it, Mr. Putin used the word 'treason' in his address this morning.

He's a lawyer by training, known to be very meticulous, and I doubt he used the term casually.

I consider most of the 'kerfuffle' between Mr. Prigozhin and the Russian MoD just that: mostly agit-prop to confuse Ukraine/NATO (and that seems to have worked, to a certain extent).

I suppose that Mr. Prigozhin will move outside Russia proper soon, perhaps the Belarus, for some time.

As regards the Kremlin, well, my take is that Mr. Putin is the primus inter (almost) pares, and that he's the president, i.e., the lighting rod, but basically everyone is on the same team (Mr. Prigozhin's troops, speaking to Alina Lipp in Rostov, said as much). Remember, Russia said it's fighting for its survival, hence they will likely go to extremes to avoid internal bickering.

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PERSISTENT OBJECTOR to new IHR's avatar

To confuse Ukraine/NATO nearly exactly for the duration of the latter's exercise - better safe than sorry...

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epimetheus's avatar

Hmmm, I have not really thought about the NATO 'exercise' all that much, and I'm unsure how much, if any, relation there'd be.

Rumours abound, incl. the resignation of the MoD head Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff, as well as the announcement of a possible general mobilisation come Monday.

We'll find out before too long, but as far as I'm concerned, I think circumstantial evidence is mounting that the entire act was about 'selling' a major course correction/policy decision, whatever that might be.

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ExcessDeathsAU's avatar

I reckon this is fake.

CIA/Mi6 approach Wagner with a bucket of cash to do a coup.

Wagner guy tells Putin.

Putin says 'ok go along with it, I'll act mad and take a cut.'

Wagner allowed to drive on Russian roads, no air strikes (this is the tell).

Putin: 'ok turn around and re-mobilise to Belarus so you can take Kiev.'

Western media goes crazy.

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Rikard's avatar

Only thing missing in your hypothesis is, who it was in the US governement apparatus that signed off on it gets leaked three months before the presidential election?

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epimetheus's avatar

Well, used coffee grounds from yesterday indicate that Mr. Biden won't run for re-election, hence it doesn't matter who spills what to do him in.

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Rikard's avatar

Hardly Biden himself - but the conga-line of underlings having gotten unwritten instructions from somewhere...

Biden is a staffage-figure, nothing more.

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ExcessDeathsAU's avatar

A dog king.

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ExcessDeathsAU's avatar

It doesn't matter. CIA/Mi6 are rogue and do whatever they want. The politicians are irrelevant. When you are president, or Prime Minister, there are guns pointed out and in.

Relatedly, the Premier in this article (Mark McGowan) was turfed out a few days after I wrote this. He had been triple crossing the US, China and Russia (in the case of Russia, being exposed for laundering money for Russian oligarchs through the only government-backed mint in the world). In the case of the US, it is self-explanatory but also he wanted to sell our lithium to China. In the case of China, losing face by gold doping. He is also deeply hated by the people for going absolutely nuts with the covid mandates. https://vicparkpetition.substack.com/p/micro-donations-to-excessdeathsau

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epimetheus's avatar

Seems quite plausible to me, in particular the thing about the absolutely no resistance during Wagner's dash towards Moscow. What I ponder here is: who's the brilliant genius (/sarcasm) behind this plot in Western 'intelligence' (sic)?

I doubt that Mr. Putin would take a cut, and the reason I say so is that it would be quite against his track record--and, after some 20+ years in power, he would have (had) plenty of opportunities to enrich himself.

Moreover, Russia is selling fuel and gas to the West, which allows 'us' to kinda struggle on; of course, rates are extortionate, but then again, most of this is self-inflicted on part of the West.

As to Belarus, well, I suppose this entire thing is to manufacture a cover for possibly two things:

1) a massive Russian attack on what remains of Ukraine, in particular as the West doesn't seem willing (yet) to stop this madness; that would signify a drastic change from Russia's previous stance, hence the 'necessity' for some kind of PR cover, and

2) it so happens that any follow-up 'leaks' on part of Western 'intelligence' (Obama just implied US meddling for some time) might allow the West to 'learn' that, after Nord Stream, it's the Ukrainians after all who seek to play both sides--i.e., it's an exit strategy

The beauty of it, of course, is that it works for both Russia and the West.

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ExcessDeathsAU's avatar

Putin takes the money and gives it to Khadyrov or whomever. It's not about the money per se. it's about establishing dominance.

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