A long-ish update on the population collapse, courtesy of legacy media, experts™, and official number-crunchers shows--massive cognitive dissonance and stupidity
Why don't the rich Norwegians do what the Germans do, who understood the problem and have been taking massive countermeasures since 2015 at the latest?
Due to the destruction of the family, ever-increasing taxes and levies, and ever-increasing living costs, having children was simply no longer financially feasible.
What did the wise and far-sighted politicians of the best climate theocracy, Stupidistan, ever do?
They brought millions upon millions of specialsts into the country, who, even if they didn't find a job right away but perhaps only in 100 years and for as long as they were supported by the working German population, fathered many, many children and mostly raised them in the belief of peace and peaceful coexistence.
The result: The birth rate magically didn't fall further, but slowly rose again.
Okay, in the end, the Germans, or rather, ethnic Germans, were replaced by others.
In the end, the country was no longer what it had been before, but rather resembled Afghanistan. In the end, it was worse than Afghanistan and Pakistan combined, and that applied to all of Europe west of the Cordon Sanitaire, from the Baltic Sea to the Gulf of Arabia, which was dominated by a small country on the eastern Mediterranean—which also applied to the rest of the world.
Problem is, from a state's fiscal position, mass immigration of the 'wrong' kind of people is a net-loss (something 'even' Chancellor Merz kinda admits if you'd consider his push to get retirees back to work as mass immigration didn't fix the problem). Doing so would mean to go against literally every social policy carried out since the mid-1960s, and doing so has no political upsides.
Investigate the correlation vaccinations/infertility.
Ban abortion and the pill except for medical necessity/emergencies.
Make contraceptives (condoms) tax exempt.
Change taxation so that households, not individuals, are taxed.
End public funding for Kindergartens, and make private such tax exempt below a given no. of kids (also, put a legal limit of X no. of staff per Y no. of kids in place).
End anti-nativity propaganda from all official sources.
End migration and repatriate the vast majority of non-European, and all moslem migrants, including 2nd and 3rd and so on generations.
And accept that lowered nativity is a natural consequence of an industrial society. It will level out at a new natural level.
Of course it ain't rocket science, but we both understand that the stuff you list will not be done; I suppose 'everybody knows' that, and while I doubt all stakeholders are aware of the massive implications of their complicity, a more simplistic cost/benefit consideration ('what's in it for [enter random public official/private stakeholder] for me?') will embrace the one partial solution there may be:
'accept that lowered nativity is a natural consequence of an industrial society. It will level out at a new natural level.'
This is where both AI™ and advances in robotics come in--as a potential way to keep the industrial/high-tech society going despite (because of) these demographic issues, despite the massive dislocations these imply.
Statistik Austria has some pretty granular data where you can sort towns by percent of families with 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 children (no 4+ or 5 options though—probably too few valid data points). Maybe Norway offers something like that? Opening a parallel browser window and looking at the percent non-European population in each town gives a pretty good picture of the few places that actually have high, native fertility. Really tiny places that probably have some religious or hippy leanings, like Innervillgraten, Carinthia, or Niederthalheim, Upper Austria. We live nearby and can confirm there’s a mini-trend west of Wels to have large families and home births while living off the land.
That's a good point--Norway offers quite granular data, much like Sweden, Denmark, and the Netherlands. The main issue I see is that policy rarely follows rational, if not logical, paths from the availability of data.
As to the 'mini-trend' you allude to, my personal take (moved to the countryside three years ago, never regretted it once) is this: the next couple of decades will be super-weird as the discrepancies between those who are (in)voluntarily childless vs. those who, for 'some religious or hippy leanings' (as you so aptly put it), decide otherwise will make for extra-absurd stuff. Once the present 'no-child' generation moves on, a more sane and stable, as well as more conservative, society will inevitably emerge.
I’m surprised that Dutch research got published. I have high hopes for after the no-child generation moves on too, but we’re in for a weird ride in the meantime. In the US context a lot of my childless friends just jump from one existential crisis to the next, literally thinking the world is about to end. Many of the childless Europeans I meet think climate change and Putin will kill us all soon so why bother starting a family.
Why don't the rich Norwegians do what the Germans do, who understood the problem and have been taking massive countermeasures since 2015 at the latest?
Due to the destruction of the family, ever-increasing taxes and levies, and ever-increasing living costs, having children was simply no longer financially feasible.
What did the wise and far-sighted politicians of the best climate theocracy, Stupidistan, ever do?
They brought millions upon millions of specialsts into the country, who, even if they didn't find a job right away but perhaps only in 100 years and for as long as they were supported by the working German population, fathered many, many children and mostly raised them in the belief of peace and peaceful coexistence.
The result: The birth rate magically didn't fall further, but slowly rose again.
Okay, in the end, the Germans, or rather, ethnic Germans, were replaced by others.
In the end, the country was no longer what it had been before, but rather resembled Afghanistan. In the end, it was worse than Afghanistan and Pakistan combined, and that applied to all of Europe west of the Cordon Sanitaire, from the Baltic Sea to the Gulf of Arabia, which was dominated by a small country on the eastern Mediterranean—which also applied to the rest of the world.
Can't do anything.
The one-stop answer is: because the Norwegian data looks like the Dutch data (see https://fackel.substack.com/p/dutch-researchers-reveal-the-true).
Problem is, from a state's fiscal position, mass immigration of the 'wrong' kind of people is a net-loss (something 'even' Chancellor Merz kinda admits if you'd consider his push to get retirees back to work as mass immigration didn't fix the problem). Doing so would mean to go against literally every social policy carried out since the mid-1960s, and doing so has no political upsides.
Hence, it won't be done.
Investigate the correlation vaccinations/infertility.
Ban abortion and the pill except for medical necessity/emergencies.
Make contraceptives (condoms) tax exempt.
Change taxation so that households, not individuals, are taxed.
End public funding for Kindergartens, and make private such tax exempt below a given no. of kids (also, put a legal limit of X no. of staff per Y no. of kids in place).
End anti-nativity propaganda from all official sources.
End migration and repatriate the vast majority of non-European, and all moslem migrants, including 2nd and 3rd and so on generations.
And accept that lowered nativity is a natural consequence of an industrial society. It will level out at a new natural level.
It's not brain science, this.
Of course it ain't rocket science, but we both understand that the stuff you list will not be done; I suppose 'everybody knows' that, and while I doubt all stakeholders are aware of the massive implications of their complicity, a more simplistic cost/benefit consideration ('what's in it for [enter random public official/private stakeholder] for me?') will embrace the one partial solution there may be:
'accept that lowered nativity is a natural consequence of an industrial society. It will level out at a new natural level.'
This is where both AI™ and advances in robotics come in--as a potential way to keep the industrial/high-tech society going despite (because of) these demographic issues, despite the massive dislocations these imply.
Statistik Austria has some pretty granular data where you can sort towns by percent of families with 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 children (no 4+ or 5 options though—probably too few valid data points). Maybe Norway offers something like that? Opening a parallel browser window and looking at the percent non-European population in each town gives a pretty good picture of the few places that actually have high, native fertility. Really tiny places that probably have some religious or hippy leanings, like Innervillgraten, Carinthia, or Niederthalheim, Upper Austria. We live nearby and can confirm there’s a mini-trend west of Wels to have large families and home births while living off the land.
That's a good point--Norway offers quite granular data, much like Sweden, Denmark, and the Netherlands. The main issue I see is that policy rarely follows rational, if not logical, paths from the availability of data.
Have you seen this one: https://fackel.substack.com/p/dutch-researchers-reveal-the-true
As to the 'mini-trend' you allude to, my personal take (moved to the countryside three years ago, never regretted it once) is this: the next couple of decades will be super-weird as the discrepancies between those who are (in)voluntarily childless vs. those who, for 'some religious or hippy leanings' (as you so aptly put it), decide otherwise will make for extra-absurd stuff. Once the present 'no-child' generation moves on, a more sane and stable, as well as more conservative, society will inevitably emerge.
I’m surprised that Dutch research got published. I have high hopes for after the no-child generation moves on too, but we’re in for a weird ride in the meantime. In the US context a lot of my childless friends just jump from one existential crisis to the next, literally thinking the world is about to end. Many of the childless Europeans I meet think climate change and Putin will kill us all soon so why bother starting a family.