The Covid Coup

Street Views from Covidian Austria--and a Primer on the Recent Cohort Study on Vaccine Effectiveness

As we continue the descent into authoritarianism, here are two contrasting views. The first is an interview with Austrian publisher Hannes Hofbauer, published by the (Old Labour) webzine Nachdenkseiten on 17 Nov. 2021, i.e., halfway through the eventful past week. The second one is a ‘report’ about the implementation of the crackdown by Vanessa Gaigg and Steffen Arora who ‘write’ for the self-identifying left-liberal daily DerStandard, published on 20 Nov. 2021.

While I provide synthesising translations (and a brief comment at the end, with reference to a cohort study on vaccine effectiveness), do see if you can spot the difference (doh).

Hannes Hofbauer, 17 Nov. 2021 (my emphases)

People who are capable of reason cannot actually believe such a thing is possible. Yet, the political reality in Austria has not been supported by reason for quite some time, and it seems similar in Germany. Now we see the introduction of an official policy of separating the vaccinated from the unvaccinated. The unvaccinated—and that is, after all, a quarter of the adult population—are only allowed to leave their homes since 15 November 2021 if they have to go to the doctor, buy essentials, and get fresh air [as well as go to places of worship]. They are only allowed to go to work if they can show a so-called PCR test at their place of work. To make matters worse, PCR tests, which are only valid for 48 hours, are often only delivered two or three days after the tissue sampling was taken because the system is overloaded…and then they are, of course, no longer valid. [Quite a few] people cannot go to work because of this, and especially in many smaller towns, small- and medium-sized businesses complain that their employees do not show up at work.

That this segregation madness has no epidemiological basis is indirectly confirmed by most irresponsible people [this is a wordplay, for politicians are usually claiming ‘responsibility’] from the Federal Chancellor downwards—there is no other way to call them [other than ‘irresponsible’]. For they openly say that this is to drive people to vaccination, knowing full well that by now almost 50 per cent of those hospitalised with Covid-19 have been vaccinated, so this vaccination will not defeat the disease.

The mood is extremely volatile. Incidents are increasing on public transport; many vaccinated people see themselves as block wardens of a medical tyranny. And the police are out with their own patrols to harass pedestrians with questions about why they are on the street; not to mention systematic police checks in restaurants or shopping centres. After all, only vaccinated (and recovered) people are allowed to be everywhere. In addition, the chief of police has ordered that every single official act, be it for turning the wrong way by car or noise pollution or whatever, be accompanied by a check of the vaccination status. That means hundreds of charges and fines…all only for the unvaccinated. They are systematically declared pariahs of society.

(…)

There are also a number of demonstrations against the measures. For example, in Innsbruck on Sunday, 14 November, c. 5,000 people marched to the Landhausplatz [square in front of the state parliament] under the slogan ‘Tyrol Rises Up’ and gave vent to their anger. The newspapers largely ignored the protests. In Vienna, too, hundreds of people marched under the banner ‘Democracy and Fundamental Rights’ on Heldenplatz the day before. At this rally, it was noticeable that slowly and hopefully not too late, explicitly left-wingers are also speaking out against the ongoing division of society.

And then there is the broadest movement against the government, that of passive resistance. It is not a movement in the proper sense, but the form of resistance is widespread. For example, going to the pub you trust, going to a friends’ gathering or playing indoor sports. Very often, where you are not allowed to go as an unvaccinated person, people do not ask about your status. Its dimension is difficult to assess, but passive resistance is widespread.

The judges, who at the beginning of the administrative restraining orders still upheld the constitutional liberties, seem to be on holiday and are intimidated. Hundreds of cases are pending, but absolutely nothing is going on, as I was told by a prominent lawyer who pursues such cases for unconstitutionality.

[The government] are completely off their rocker. ‘Pure chaos’, and you can even hear such statements on public television. Most recently, the Minister of Health—you don’t have to remember his name—issued a decree in writing on Monday, 15 November, in which he announced a lockdown at night for the coming weekend, even for vaccinated people. In plain language, he wanted an early closing time for bars for everyone. Two hours later, the new Chancellor, who has only been in office for a few days—his name is also irrelevant—went on public TV and said that this would not happen. When asked if it would be discussed in the government meeting announced by the Health Minister two days later, the Chancellor replied that he knew nothing about such a meeting and that it would not take place. This is how one works in the most important responsible offices. It is a disgrace. The most successful Austrian Olympian, Felix Gottwald—three-time gold medal winner…—agrees…saying that he had ‘lost all confidence in politics’ and was ‘against exclusion from social and sporting life’ [and] called what is going on ‘division, agitation, discrimination’.

(…)

Today we are faced with the spectre of fascism; and many, far too many, do not understand this and still believe in the necessity of public health measures. The mere fact that there has been no investment in public health in the past two years and that Austria is struggling with staff shortages in hospitals shows that public health is not at the centre of politics. Unless you understand health policy to mean the billions of euros thrown down the throats of pharmaceutical corporations for currently 320,000 tests every day (for 8.9 million inhabitants) and millions of vaccination doses.

(…)

As a historian, however, I know that restrictions that are rather moderate at the beginning can gradually degenerate into massive repression. In order for this not to happen, we have to stand up against it together, each in his or her own place—and not let ourselves be divided in resistance.

Covid Controls, by Vanessa Gaigg and Seffen Arora, Der Standard, 20 Nov. 2021 (my emphases)

The more new rules come into force, the more the police have to check. This was tricky recently because only the unvaccinated had to go into lockdown. Soon the lockdown will apply to everyone again.

When the woman with her shopping bag leaves the shop on Mariahilfer Straße, she was probably not prepared to be met by a police officer. ‘May I ask for your 2G proof?’ asks Inspector [lowest police rank, gained right after completion of the police academy] of Dominik B. as the lady steps out onto the street. ‘Sorry’, the woman squeezes out, startled, she doesn't understand German very well. When the officer mentions the term ‘green passport’, everything is clear to the woman—but she does not have it with her. She can only offer her e-card [Austrian health insurance card]. However, as B. later explains, she ‘credibly’ assures the officer that the vaccination card is at home. The woman gets off with a warning.

During his training, Inspector B. probably never imagined that one day he would be standing in front of a shop in a Viennese shopping street asking people for their vaccination cards. But the Corona pandemic brought new fields of work and burdens for many occupational groups—including the police.

(…)

Despite the partial lockdown [for the ‘unvaccinated’], there is a lot going on in the early afternoon of the previous week. Some people say they are already out Christmas shopping. The police are certainly causing a stir with their checks, and time and again one or the other quickly changes sides of the road. If you don't behave too conspicuously, you probably won't be checked at random in the lockdown for the unvaccinated. After all, everyone is allowed to go for a walk. Shopping, however, is not. That's why the police are now primarily stationed in front of shop entrances. ‘We check where people come together’, is how Interior Ministry spokesman Paul Eidenberger sums it up. That means above all: restaurants and shops.

The regulations on who is allowed in where and when, or even out, have recently changed almost weekly. Just under a fortnight ago, the 3G rule shrank to 2G nationwide. A few days later, unvaccinated people were sent into lockdown. They were only allowed to leave their homes if they had the famous exceptions, which include mental recuperation [psychische Erholung, in the original, i.e., leave one’s home before you go crazy]. From Monday [22 Nov. 2021] onwards, however, the police will probably again ask everyone why they are outside when they carry out checks. The lockdown will then apply to everyone again.

It is still permitted to travel to work, school or university—at least as long as they are open, but not every kind of shopping. Not everyone is aware of this: when a young woman leaving a shop is asked by district inspector Marlene S. for proof, she sighs visibly annoyed. No, she doesn’t have one. At least she could go to university with a PCR test. ‘But you are only allowed to go to grocery shops’, the officer explains to her. The student then receives a citation by the police.

The penalties for violating the curfew range up to 1,450 €. The young woman does not want to answer questions about how she feels about the lockdown. Not everyone is automatically reported, explains police officer S.: The lady had shown herself to be unreasonable, which is why a warning was out of the question.

Police were urged by Interior Minister Karl Nehammer (ÖVP) to follow the maxim ‘Every citizen engagement should be a Covid-19 check’. In practice, of course, this is sensibly implemented: If an operation is dangerous, police don’t ask for vaccination or recovery proof in the heat of the moment, says Eidenberger.

This applies in the East as well as in the West: ‘We always de-escalate in discussions’, says the Innsbruck colleague, city police commander Romed Giner, before he goes on the beat with his team. There is a nod, then his six colleagues make their way through Innsbruck’s Maria-Theresien-Straße.

A few metres behind the officers who slowly make their way through the rather poorly frequented pedestrian zone, you can hear passers-by commenting on the scene again and again. The whispers range from ‘The poor policemen have to pay for this’ to ‘It’s like a police state’. Every day, two additional patrols are assigned to each district to carry out the Covid-19 checks.

(…)

Near City Hall, the officers take aim at a young man on a skateboard who was making an angry phone call. He interrupts his phone call and shows the police his vaccination certificate. He finds the controls ‘crap’, as he says quite openly, yet at the same time, he says, he understands them: ‘They caught me at a bad moment. I just had some stress with my girlfriend.’ In view of the infection situation, the measures were unfortunately necessary, he is convinced. While the young man turns his attention back to his relationship, a passer-by turns to Commander Giner: ‘Tell me, is this police deployment because of Corona?’ She is puzzled: ‘I have the impression that the police presence in the city centre has been enormous for months.’

An elderly woman in [Vienna] has a similar view. ‘I think it's good that you check’, she says to an official as she rummages in her bag to fish out the vaccination card. ‘But it’s already too frequent.’ She asks if she has ever been checked before? ‘Yes, just a moment ago!’

Between Monday [15 Nov.] and Thursday [18 Nov.], about 115,000 checks were carried out nationwide. According to the Ministry of the Interior, about 700 citations were filed and fines were issued.

(…)

The officer will ‘in all likelihood’ also be on duty at the weekend: at the large demonstration against Corona measures. The right to assemble also applies to the unvaccinated. The policeman hesitates briefly when asked what specific danger he expects. ‘The level of aggression is sometimes high’, he says. But everyone prepares for this in advance.

Brief Comment, incl. a Primer on the Austrian Vaccine Effectiveness Study (weeks 5-35)

This is an already long posting, but it’s important to note the fawning, extremely friendly tone in the self-identifying left-liberal daily Der Standard.

Furthermore, what I honestly find most troubling is the complacency with which people accept these intrusive checks in spite of the absence of any evidence to the contrary.

At first, it was ‘14 days to break the [first] wave’ in March 2020.

Then it was ‘protect the seniors’ and ‘don’t let your child kill grandma’ in spring and summer 2020.

It morphed into ‘all hail the vaccines’ in autumn 2020.

Once these ‘vaccines’ were available, they were initially treated as the best thing since sliced bread in winter and spring 2021.

Soon adverse events were too common to ignore, hence the narrative was shifted again.

Now, after a lot of complacency and ignorance, with ‘vaccination’ rates well north of 60% of the eligible population ‘infection rates’ are higher than ever before.

Curiously enough, the Austrian government now makes the case that ‘vaccines’ at least offer some protection against serious course of Covid-19, hospitalisation, and death.

Oh, wait, about that issue: the Institute of Infectious Disease Epidemiology & Surveillance of the Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety (AGES, the Austrian FDA equivalent) recently came out with a population-based cohort study. Entitled ‘Estimates of COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 Infections Following a Nationwide Vaccination Campaign’, the Austrian government’s own researchers are tracking this issue.

From their English-language summary (pp. 9-11):

‘This is the first study on Covid-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) at population-level in Austria. We present nationwide age group specific estimates of the effectiveness of the two mRNA vaccines (BNT162b2-accine and the mRNA-1273-vaccine, combined), the AZD1222- and the Ad26.COV2-S (J&J)-vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 infection and symptomatic infection. In addition, we estimated the VE against the Alpha-variant and Delta-variant by selecting the time, in which these variants, each, accounted for more than 90% of the typed isolates: For estimating the Alpha-variant-specific VE, the analyses were restricted to the weeks 16-22, and for the Delta-variant VE analyses to weeks 27-35.

We applied a population-based retrospective cohort study using the nationwide surveillance data on SARS-CoV-2 cases and the vaccine data from the national vaccine register…For the total study period, from weeks 5 to 35, the analyses yielded highest VE estimates against symptomatic infection in all age groups for the mRNA-vaccines (≥12 years old). The adjusted VE estimates against symptomatic infection were found to be lowest for the J&J-vaccine, with 37.96% (95%CI: 30.80%-44.47%) in the 18-39 years old, 41.58% (95%CI: 32.72%-49.50%) in the 40-59 years old, and 64.71% (95%CI: 47.77%-77.40%) in the ≥ 60 years old, compared to the other vaccines in each age group.

(…)

There are few limitations to be considered. A differential probability of case detection between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals results from vaccination-specific test strategy. Unvaccinated individuals are obliged to be tested for several occasions (e.g., entry tests). Therefore, unvaccinated individuals, compared to vaccinated, are more likely to be detected as a case, which will overestimate the VE for all three vaccine-groups. Vaccinee-cases may be more likely to report symptoms; this will result in an underestimation of the VE, affecting also all three vaccine-types. In addition, a healthy vaccinee effect cannot be ruled out in our study. Vaccinees are less likely to adhere to non-pharmaceutical interventions (more risky behaviour) and are, therefore, more likely to be exposed to the virus than non-vaccinees. J&J vaccinees may be even more likely to practice risky behaviour than mRNA-and AZD1222-vaccinees or are more likely to seek medical care than mRNA-, and AstraZeneca-Vaccinees. This may contribute also to the low VE estimates found for the J&J vaccine. A possible effect of waning immunity on the VE of the J&J vaccine is rather unlikely, as the J&J vaccine up-take has been started in Austria beginning in May.’

Yet, on p. 8, this is given in German (my translation, my emphasis, but the capitalized ‘CANNOT’ is in the original):

‘AGES currently has no reliable data on the severity of Covid-19, severity of the Covid-19 disease, and no information about hospitalisation or intensive care requirements for Covid-19 patients. Therefore, the efficacy of the vaccines in preventing severe and lethal severe courses and lethal outcome of SARS-CoV2 infection CANNOT be calculated.’

Thus, may I present you with the ‘evidence’: the Austrian government’s own regulatory body says it CANNOT comment on the government’s claims.

Gee, makes you wonder why, exactly, people are fed up. What makes me wonder, though, is why this hasn’t been picked up by, well, everyone?

Surely, something has to give.