Norway Reports Excess Mortality of 5.6% in 2023, with most occurring for 'other causes'

A few lines from the Institute of Public Health: bafflement ensues, and it'll be some more time before a more honest accounting

Some ‘news’ from the Institute of Public Health (IPH), which is available in its original version here. Since I have not seen this ‘news’ item in English, and since I think it might be of interest to non-Norwegians, I decided to provide you with a translation (emphases mine).

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Excess Mortality of 5.6% in 2023

The NIPH estimates that there was an excess mortality rate of 5.6% in 2023. The excess mortality rate has been roughly halved compared with 2022.

This is according to a new IPH report on ‘Mortality in Norway' During the Coronavirus Pandemic 2020-2023’. In 2023, NIPH has estimated that there were 2,313 more deaths than expected. Most of these deaths were in the age group 65 years and older.

‘The excess mortality rate in 2023 is approximately halved compared with 2022, when our updated analyses estimated an excess mortality rate of 11.8%’, says Hanne Løvdal Gulseth, Section Chief [fagdirektor] at the IPH.

IPH calculates excess mortality by comparing observed mortality with expected mortality. The reason for the report is that the IPH wants to provide a thorough analysis of excess mortality and follow up on the corresponding report from June 2023. Preliminary information on causes of death is an addition to this in order to contribute to a discussion of possible causes.

Excess Mortality in the 20-39 Age Group

There has been elevated mortality in all age groups in 2023, with the exception of the group over 90 years of age. For the age groups 20-39 years, 65-79 years and 80-89 years, there was statistically significant excess mortality (see figure).

Unlike in 2022, where excess mortality was primarily found in older age groups, in 2023 IPH also observed elevated mortality in the population under 40 years of age.

‘This is the first time in the pandemic period that we see excess mortality in younger age groups. It is important to note that there are few deaths in this age group, so there is great uncertainty about the results’, says Hanne Løvdal Gulseth.

Caption: The figure shows the number of deaths per 100,000 for different age groups from 2010 to 2023. Note that there is a different y-axis for each age group. The grey area indicates a likely interval for where we would expect the annual mortality rate for each age group to be. In other words, where the dot is outside the grey area, there is a statistically significant excess mortality.

Developments in Some Major Cause of Death Groups

There may be many explanations for the elevated mortality rate in the 20-39 age group.

The official statistics for causes of death for 2023 will not be published until 30 May when the reporting of deaths is almost complete and the classification and quality assurance of causes of death is complete.

‘We have nevertheless chosen to show preliminary results for the major cause of death groups in order to shed light on which causes of death other than COVID-19 may have affected excess mortality. Because the figures are preliminary, we have chosen to use broad categories of causes of death such as cardiovascular disease, cancer, infectious and pulmonary diseases, dementia, and the category “other causes of death”’, says Hanne Løvdal Gulseth.

Preliminary figures for the development in the major cause of death groups for the age group 0-39 years show no increase in deaths from cardiovascular disease, cancer or lung and infectious diseases, but an increase in deaths in the overall category ‘other causes’. This includes congenital and neurological diseases, and deaths related to substance abuse, injuries, accidents, homicide and suicide. We will have more details about the extent and distribution of this group when the statistics on causes of death are published.

For the older age groups, we see that COVID-19 is still an important cause of excess mortality. It is also worth pointing out that we do not see an increase in major cause of death groups such as cardiovascular disease, dementia, and cancer in these age groups either, Gulseth continues.

Excess Mortality Among Men

Calculations from the IPH indicate an excess mortality rate of 8% for men, but no significant increase for women.

‘We don't know the reasons for this at the moment. We know that COVID-19-associated deaths are more common in men than in women, but here too, more detailed figures on causes of death will be available in the annual cause of death statistics from the IPH, which will be published on 30 May’, says Hanne Løvdal Gulseth.

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Bottom Lines

Oh, look, there’s nothing to see here. Apart from ‘an increase in deaths in the overall category “other causes”’.

Don’t be gaslit, for the category of ‘Covid-associated deaths’ doesn’t require a ‘positive test’.

Read up on excess mortality in Norway:

'I've never seen anything like this': Excess Mortality Among Young People in Norway

And here:

Covid—or whatever—in Norway: 'Experts' and Officials Are Struggling (Failing) to Explain why ERs are Overflowing and Excess Mortality is up 10% This Year

Bafflement will continue, that is, until 30 May 2024 when the Cause of Death registry data will be published. Shall we bet on detailed explanations about the ‘other causes’?

I won’t hold my breath.