EU Commission Calls for 'Wartime Production'

If the Norwegians weren't busy blowing up pipelines, they might ask for the Nobel Peace Prize to be returned

It has happened before, and it is happening in front of our own eyes. Right now.

Here’s Der Spiegel, which reported yesterday on a ‘leak’ of the EU Commission’s new position paper with respect to what German generals call ‘a decade of war’ ahead.

As always, the translation and emphases are mine, as are the bottom lines. Sigh.

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EU Commission Aims to Massively Increase Ammunition Production

The EU Commission wants to convert Europe from peacetime to wartime. According to information leaked to Der Spiegel, a three-stage plan envisages a massive increase in the production of ammunition.

The EU Commission wants to boost ammunition production in Europe. Ursula von der Leyen’s agency wants to present a plan to the member-states that will not only ensure the supply of Ukraine in the defensive struggle against the Russian invasion— but also the filling of stocks in the EU countries.

According to the discussion paper that the Commission will present to the ambassadors of the member countries on Thursday [today, 2 March 2023] and which is available to Der Spiegel, the plan contains three pillars:

1. The first pillar provides for an immediate increase in the supply of ammunition, especially 155 millimetre calibre artillery shells, to Ukraine. Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign affairs representative, would soon propose an additional support package worth one billion euros for the supply of ammunition, especially 155-millimetre shells.

2. The second pillar provides for a joint purchase of 155-millimetre ammunition by the European Defence Agency (EDA) to fill the gaps in the EU countries' stocks and to ensure Ukraine's supply also in the long term.

3. The third pillar is intended to secure the long-term increase in European ammunition production capacities to take account of the changed security situation.

The emergency aid of the first pillar is to follow the already established pattern: EU states supply Ukraine and receive money from the European Peace Facility (EPF) in return. Its financial cover has already been increased three times by 500 million euros each time, and in December it was decided to increase it to two billion euros. As soon as it is implemented, the additional one billion euros will come, which Borrell is to propose.

Peacetime is Over

The second pillar of the plan contains a clear message: the time of peace in Europe, which was thought to be secure, is over. The situation has changed fundamentally due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine [but if Western countries do it, it’s different…], and the EU states are to take this into account—by acquiring larger quantities of ammunition in the long term.

This is to be achieved with the help of an [European Defence Agency] EDA project. According to the paper, the member-states and Ukraine are to put their collective needs on the line in order to ‘place a massive order and send a clear demand signal to the industry’. Only if the industry is sure that there is such a demand will it be prepared to increase its production capacities in the long term, the Commission says.

Procurement could be modelled on the Occar procurement agency, which has already handled joint defence projects such as the A400M military transport aircraft [a gigantic bungle, if there ever was one outside the US…]. The states could register their needs there, and the agency would then negotiate the contracts. Alternatively, a ‘lead nation’ could take on this role and purchase munitions for the other countries involved, the paper says. For the part that is delivered to Ukraine, there would then again be compensation from the EPF.

The Commission also hopes that the joint order will lead to significantly lower prices than before. 25 of the 27 EU states and Norway have already expressed interest in participating in the project, which is to run for seven years [that is, until 2030, which keeps popping up everywhere…].

In the third pillar, another fundamental problem is to be tackled: the ‘rapidly dwindling’ ammunition stocks of the EU states and their insufficient capacities for the production of supplies—which are now to be ‘rapidly increased’. The Commission, however, leaves little doubt that it sees itself more in the role of facilitator and organiser here, for example, by identifying gaps in production capacities and helping to manage procurement [that approach has worked wonders with respect to Covid, right, so: what could go wrong…?] Von der Leyen’s agency sees the real responsibility as lying with industry and the governments of the EU states.

Their defence ministers are expected to discuss the proposals at an informal meeting in Stockholm early next week. Decisions could already be made at the next summit of heads of state and government at the end of March.

Russia Fires 10X as Many Shells as Ukrainians

Such plans are not entirely new. Last November, Borrell and EU Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton had already proposed a joint ammunition purchase modelled on the procurement of Corona vaccines. However, their letter to the EU defence ministers remained largely inconsequential.

It was only when the Estonian head of government, Kaja Kallas, brought up the idea again at the summit in early February that momentum was created. This time, the Commission does not fear similar problems as with the purchase of vaccines [like, say, allegations of misconduct by the Commission, lies by the manufacturer, and dead Europeans?]—because unlike the Covid vaccines, 155-millimetre ammunition is not a product that has yet to be developed. Therefore, it is primarily a matter of signalling to the industry that there is a definite need for it.

Moreover, the Ukrainians’ ammunition supply is now even more precarious than it was last autumn. Not only does the Commission emphasise this several times in its purchase plan, it is also stated in a confidential discussion paper of the Estonian Ministry of Defence, which is available to Der Spiegel.

According to the paper, Russia fires 20,000 to 60,000 artillery shells per day, about ten times more than Ukraine. Europe’s defence industry, however, can only produce 20,000 to 25,000 shells—per month.

However, the Estonians estimate that this number could be increased sevenfold, based on information from the defence industry. Already this year, the production of one million 155-millimetre grenades would be possible, at a cost of about four billion euros [more on this below in the bottom lines].

The Commission does not want to confirm whether this is realistic [lol, I wonder why…] The Estonians, on the other hand, demand more speed in their paper. They say that ‘extraordinary efforts’ and ‘quick decisions’ are needed to boost the procurement of ammunition already this year, because ‘this is what the seriousness of the situation in Ukraine demands’.

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Bottom Lines

So, now you know. Sigh.

What they won’t tell you is this, though: according to Defence Express, one 155mm L15 shell costs approx. 3,300 euros apiece. Therefore, the above-mentioned 1 billion euros will bring about 30,303 155 L15 shells, which is slightly more than the amount of shells Ukraine uses in a month.

Obviously, Russia has much larger and already-running facilities that are providing its armed forces with a far larger amount of shells per month.

I personally doubt it that European manufacturers could ramp up munitions production to 1m shells this year, as the Spiegel article claims, in particular if the cost cited—4 billion euros—indicates that the price per shell would be around 400 €.

The price differential between that latter price and the 3,300 is merely a factor of 8.25, and I doubt that the armament manufacturers will just forego that kind of margin.

Also, one last word about Estonia:

Wahrheit kann weh tun! @TruthReposter

Die NATO-Staaten müssen die Kontrolle über Moskau erlangen und die Mentalität der russischen Bürger gewaltsam umschreiben, damit die Russen nie wieder eine Bedrohung darstellen, sagte die estnische Ministerpräsidentin Kaja Kallas.

Translation of what Kaja Kallas, Estonia’s PM (in office since 2021) said:

NATO countries must take control of Moscow and violently rewrite the mentality of Russian citizens so that the Russians never pose a threat again, said Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas.

And there’s still people who wonder why Russians consider the Ukrainian war ‘essential’ to their own survival. (Note that I condemn the Russian invasion in the same categorical terms as I condemn Western aggression.)

Be afraid that these maniacs—the likes of Kalles, von der Leyen, and their ilk—continue to dictate policy.

Brace for impact.