Covid in Norway: 78% of all Covid deaths in weeks 45-48 were 'fully vaccinated'

Official 'Numbers' from Week 48 (29 Nov.-5 Dec. 2021)

This is but a brief update, instead of the earlier more detailed comments on the Norwegian Institute of Public Health’s (IPH) weekly updates. These reports are published weekly, and you’re invited to check them out (here’s the link to the English ‘version’).

I will do a write-up of this week’s update, but end-of-term madness and offline life have kept me from doing so; also, there’s this slight change in the report’s composition and emphasis since week 47 (22-28 Nov. 2021) that I wrote about: the quality of the piece has deteriorated massively, and IPH staff has put a faulty graphic into their report.

Thus, I shall provide a (very) brief summary below before sharing the IPH’s latest certified Omicron update with you.

IPH’s Weekly Update, 29 Nov.-5 Dec. 2021

If anything, week 48 shows the following key details for the past 4 weeks (tables 3 and 4, p. 11):

Infections among seniors continues to be high among the 65+ age cohort, which accounted for 51% of all hospitalisations 42.8% of ICU occupancy (down from 44.2% in weeks 44-47).

Yet, the main change concerns the age brackets 30-64, which counted 44.3% of all hospitalisations (up from 42.4% in weeks 44-47) and 51.2% of ICU occupancy (down a bit from 53% in weeks 44-47)

Further below (table 5, p. 12), we learn that there were 265 ‘unvaccinated’ in the past four weeks vs. 330 ‘fully vaccinated’ hospitalisations. The split is 44% vs. 56%, but these numbers are the same in the comparable data set (table 5, p. 12, in the report from the previous week).

I pointed this out in my last dedicated post, so here are the ‘raw’ numbers of cumulative hospitalisations, which (in my opinion) allow for a more accurate understanding of hospitalisations with Covid-19 according to ‘vaccination status’:

• By week 47, there were a total of 2,930 ‘unvaccinated’ hospitalisations vs. 687 ‘fully vaccinated’; for the past four weeks (44-47), the numbers given are 233 vs. 330.

• By contrast, by week 48, these numbers were 3,022 (unvaxxed) vs. 797 (fully vaxxed); for the past four weeks (45-48), the numbers given are 265 vs. 370.

What does that imply?

1. Among the ‘unvaccinated’, there was a 3% increase in hospitalisations in week 48 over the previous week. (Here’s how I calculated this: 3,022-2,930 = 92 ÷ 29.3 = c. 3%.)

2. By contrast, the increase among the ‘fully vaccinated’ was 16% in week 48 over the previous week. (797-687 = 110 ÷ 6.87 = c. 16%.)

Let’s compare these data from table 5 with the narrative provided on p. 11:

‘In week 48, 193 new patients were admitted to Norwegian hospitals with Covid-19 as the main cause. Of them, 84 (44 %) were unvaccinated and 101 (52%) were fully vaccinated. Of these 101, two had received one dose, and six patients were partially vaccinated.’

Let’s unpack this, however briefly:

The ‘partially vaccinated’ are seemingly back and are counted, however inconsistently, among the ‘vaccinated’ population. This is, by itself, good news, for the definition of ‘fully vaccinated’ was problematic from the start.

Note, though, that these numbers in the ‘narrative’ part diverge, again, from the numbers deduced from table 5. I happen to believe the table and not the text, which gives us the following numbers: 92 ‘unvaccinated’ and 110 ‘fully vaccinated’ hospitalisations, for a combined total of 192.

Beyond this, no serious calculation is possible because the numbers diverge, but a quick-and-dirty one suggests the share of ‘fully vaccinated’ hospitalisations stood at 57% in week 48 (not at 52%).

Fully vaxxed are 78% of all Covid deaths in weeks 45-58

Be that as it may, let’s focus on one more part: Covid-deduced deaths, which are more illuminating (table 7, p. 19):

I think the data speaks for itself. In the past four weeks (45-48), there were 169 Covid-associated deaths in Norway, of which a whopping 78% were among the ‘fully vaccinated’.

Last word here: what about the relation of Covid-19 as a health problem vs. all other causes? The below figure is no. 16 (on p. 23), and it should decisively answer your question about the severity of Covid-19 as a massive, life-threatening problem of society:

Would that amount to a nothingburger compared to other illnesses?