As of two days ago, we were at the ‘early warning level’, which is to say a
concrete, serious and reliable information that an event which is likely to result in significant deterioration of the gas supply situation may occur and is likely to lead to the alert or the emergency level being triggered
Now that the Kremlin is finally (/sarcasm) obliging on EU/EEA member-states refusing to buy cheap Russian hydrocarbon energy—it’s not that Mr. Putin wouldn’t sell it, you know, it’s just that the morons in charge don’t want to buy it—we can see the writing on the wall:
Austrian media was reporting on reduced Russian gas flows through the Nord Stream pipeline yesterday, which was followed by assurances that whatever happened to, say, its neighbours wouldn’t affect Austria. You know, Solidarity™.
Today, however, the tone has changed slightly; see if you can spot the difference in the below pieces of information, courtesy of Der Standard (my emphases):
France no longer receives Russian gas via a pipeline from Germany. This has already been the case since Wednesday, and it was due to an ‘interruption in the flow of gas between France and Germany’, the French network operator GRT Gaz explained on Friday. The Russian Gazprom group had curtailed its deliveries to a number of EU states in recent days.
The gas supply will not be affected by this, and the filling of storage facilities for the winter would continue, GRT Gaz maintained. In view of already declining gas consumption, imports via the [Franco-German] pipeline had already been reduced by 60% below last year’s level since the beginning of the year. The pipeline’s capacity utilisation was therefore only 10%. Gas is now increasingly being imported via a pipeline from Spain.
France…also has four liquefied natural gas [LNG] terminals. In addition, 70% of France’s electricity comes from nuclear power, and many French heat their homes with electricity.
In addition to pipelines, Russian natural gas is also imported by sea. Since the beginning of the year, imports to France of LNG have increased by 66%. The capacities of a LNG terminal near Marseille are currently being expanded, with additional capacities currently in the works in the north near Dunkirk and Le Havre.
See, the French will also be o.k., kind of. So, who won’t be?
Gazprom is also cutting back on natural gas supplies to Italy. According to the partly state-owned gas supplier Eni, Gazprom only committed to 50% of the ordered delivery volume on Friday. Italy had actually ordered 63 million cubic metres of gas from Russia that day. Gas deliveries had already been down in the previous days—by 15% on Wednesday and 35% on Thursday.
Italy could declare a state of alert due to dwindling gas supplies next week, if Russia continues to cut its gas delivery, as explained by two government sources said on Friday. That would be the next stage in the three-stage gas emergency protocol. The early warning state was declared in late February after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The final stage would be a gas emergency.
The [Italian declaration of a] state of alert would trigger a series of measures aimed at reducing gas consumption. These include rationing of gas to selected industrial users, ramping up of energy production at the country’s coal-fired power plants, and calling for more gas imports from other suppliers.
At this point, I’d say let’s go and ask Greta Thunberg what she ‘thinks’ of the Russian sanctions and the like.
Still the problem isn’t a slightly deranged teenager who wishes to change the world.
If you checked out my piece from two days ago, you’d already know that ‘early warning’ is level 1. Level 2, ‘alert’, would trigger the creation of an ‘EU Energy Czar’ (pun intended) and work towards identification of ‘the contribution of non-market-based measures planned or to be implemented for the emergency level, and assess the degree to which the use of such non-market-based measures is necessary to cope with a crisis’, as the bespoke EU regulation holds.
The same regulation (it’s all linked in the piece from two days ago) holds, in Art. 12 (1), that the EU Commission ‘shall declare, as appropriate, a regional or Union emergency at the request of at least two competent authorities that have declared an emergency’.
Now, with Italy mulling to go to level 2 next week, only one more EU/EEA member-state must declare an emergency to trigger Commission-imposed, and unaccountable, energy rationing.
‘Fortunately’ (/sarcasm) for the power-mad Brussels-based lackeys of Washington, there may be just one more such country…Slovakia, as Der Standard ‘explains’ (my emphases):
Slovak gas importer SPP was also informed by Russia that its gas supplies would be cut by half on Friday. ‘Cutting supplies by half does not hurt us at the moment. We are working on the realistic risk that deliveries will be stopped altogether’, said SPP managing director Richard Prokypčák.
See, a reduction by 50% now—in summer—isn’t a problem. Well, here’s a little insight from the grasshopper’s summer chat with the ant: the problem is winter, which is coming. And this ‘reassurance’ by Mr. Prokypčák also gives away the larger problem—Slovakia appears to expecting a full stop of Russian gas flows, which ‘does…hurt…at the moment’.
That would make Slovakia the magic second country, after Italy, to declare an emergency.
Before we wrap this up, here’s a small nugget of insight from an unlikely source, Austrian state broadcaster ORF. In a piece that explains, in so many words, the same story as outlined by Der Standard, there is also this paragraph (again, my emphasis):
The Russian Gazprom Group justified its drastic cuts in deliveries to Germany via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline by pointing to delays in the repair of gas compressors by Siemens, which are putting caps on the capacity of the Baltic pipeline. Siemens Energy is currently unable to deliver gas turbines, which were overhauled in Canada, to the Baltic Sea pipeline Nord Stream 1 because of the Russian sanctions. Canada is now looking for a solution together with Germany for a turbine serviced there.
Isn’t this marvellous? Again, we can observe the infinite wisdom of the Collective West: let’s all sanction Russia, which will prevent Canada from transferring said equipment back to Germany—for fear of invoking Washington’s wrath.
This is, to put it mildly, stranger than fiction. Also, there’s more in the ORF piece:
The [cut in gas flow] coincides with the Kiev trip of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, and it is certainly striking. All the more so because Gazprom could increase deliveries via Ukraine as a replacement for the Baltic Sea pipeline Nord Stream 1, but this has not been done—at least not yet.
What a coincidence, eh?
Also, I’d offer some free advice to EU leaders here: if you’re in a hole, stop digging.
Bonus Feature: ‘Freezing for Freedom’
You see, the sanctions on Russia were quite ‘fun’ while they merely caused some minor inconveniences, such as a bunch of Swiss public bathing areas refusing to heat outdoor pools to ‘because that would require Russian gas’. And this, Nau.ch summarised, would be unacceptable to the municipal council, because of the ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine.
Yet, some of the bathing guests do not condone this course of action. Regular guests were ‘not thrilled because they don’t have warm water in the morning. They then said they were not satisfied’, admits [Schlieren ZH] city councillor Christian Meier.
Ill. taken from the abov-linked piece over at Nau.ch. The caption reads: ‘The public pool in Schlieren ZH doesn’t heat its pools this year. In exchange, admission is free.’
To be fair, there were also constructive suggestions, e.g., some said: ‘If you’re really doing this, then don’t heat the public buildings so much next winter.’
For regular guest Guido, it is clear that he understands the decision, but he only wants to go into the pool when the water temperature reaches 21 degrees. ‘The masses probably want that, too’, he believes. Until that time comes, Guido takes evasive action: ‘So, now I go swimming in the indoor pool and then just sunbathe outdoors.’
Looking at my firewood supply, I can do nothing but shrug dismissively. The majority of leaders, both business, politics and various civil, have a embraced and endorsed this doomsday cult, and so has their customers, voters and devotees.
I don't want to speak with ms Thunberg (who has her own company up and running, the business-idea being getting paid for being Greta Thunberg and spouting talking points), I want to speak with the masses who keeps voting for a Merkel or whatever the snivelling wretch taking the reins from her is called, or a Macaron, or any other crony of the EU synarchy. I want to ask them:
"What did you expect, when you replaced knowledge and reason with faith and belief? What i you expect when you replaced experience and empiricism with rights and principles?"
Intentions and beliefs never ever trumps consequences.
It is like my paternal grandmother said about the EG way back: "Hitler is laughing in Hell. He won. They are trying to build Festung Europa."
Next week's news: "Gas rationing blamed on climate change."
Looking at my firewood supply, I can do nothing but shrug dismissively. The majority of leaders, both business, politics and various civil, have a embraced and endorsed this doomsday cult, and so has their customers, voters and devotees.
I don't want to speak with ms Thunberg (who has her own company up and running, the business-idea being getting paid for being Greta Thunberg and spouting talking points), I want to speak with the masses who keeps voting for a Merkel or whatever the snivelling wretch taking the reins from her is called, or a Macaron, or any other crony of the EU synarchy. I want to ask them:
"What did you expect, when you replaced knowledge and reason with faith and belief? What i you expect when you replaced experience and empiricism with rights and principles?"
Intentions and beliefs never ever trumps consequences.
It is like my paternal grandmother said about the EG way back: "Hitler is laughing in Hell. He won. They are trying to build Festung Europa."