A Tale of Two Insurrections--UPDATED
A brief note to esp. US readers: not all insurrections look the same…
…but you may go on believing the Jan. 6 ‘incident’ was an attempted coup:
Even the most cursory glance at, yes, legacy media ‘breaking news from Russia’ shows that, typically, ‘insurrections’ and coups kinda look and work differently.
See if you can spot the difference…
Medvedev: Will not allow Wagner uprising to grow into a coup
Russia will not allow the Wagner uprising to develop into a coup or a global crisis, says Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council. Reuters reports.
‘The world will be on the brink of disaster if Russian nuclear weapons fall into the hands of bandits’, says Medvedev, who is also Russia’s former president, according to the Russian state news agency Tass.
Initial Thoughts
The situation is way too confusing to to know what is really going on. Moreover, it is way, way, way too early to be able to assess what this means.
That said, I will say this: most breathless commentary and punditry today is going to look wrong and, in many cases, also extra-silly tomorrow.
It is no secret that the way Mr. Putin conducted the Russian intervention has been heavily criticised, mostly for not being tough enough.
The one thing I suspect we’re able to say that will come out of this entire situation is this, then: a more forceful, assertive tone will be heard in Moscow, and this will occur for one of the two following reasons:
either Mr. Putin’s régime is so weak that merely to save his ass, he would do anything the insurrectionists and his opponents in the Russian president’s inner circle would demand, or
this is an elaborate hoax that is used by Mr. Putin to move to ‘the next level’ of the conflict.
UPDATE by Thomas Röper
Mr. Röper is a German-born independent journalist who lives in Russia; here’s what he posted (in German) a few minutes ago (translation and emphases mine):
The Wagner troops left the Donbas last night in the direction of Rostov, but apparently not too many soldiers were involved. A trustworthy source spoke of about 1,500 Wagner fighters.
In the morning they took over the city of Rostov without a fight, purposefully surrounding but not storming the strategically important buildings of the police, intelligence service and so on. In this way they were able to suppress resistance from the authorities. After that Wagner columns moved on, in Rostov they allegedly left only a few hundred fighters at the strategically important points.
The Wagner units are apparently trying to take similar action in other regions around Rostov. In addition, a Wagner column is moving towards Moscow, where - according to various forecasts—it should arrive around 7.00 p.m. German time if it keeps up the pace. [i.e., as I type this]
So far, no demands from Wagner have become known, which is why there is puzzlement about what Prigozhin actually wants to achieve.
What Wagner Contractors in Rostov Are Saying
My friend and colleague Alina Lipp is in Rostov and gave me a summary on the phone of what she experienced on the ground. She spoke at great length with Wagner soldiers who had surrounded one of the buildings mentioned. The soldiers told her clearly that they are not against Putin.
But they are convinced that the Ministry of Defence had intended to attack their base, which is why—they are convinced—Prigozhin decided to act. I am convinced that the soldiers believe this story, however, the almost general staff-like planning of Wagner’s action suggests no spontaneous action. So it may be that Wagner’s leadership told their soldiers an untrue story to get them marching.
Another question is why the columns have so far been advancing north on the highway unhindered and why they are not being attacked from the air even as they advance on other towns.
Are Negotiations Underway?
The soldiers have given Alina an answer to that too. According to what they told Alina, Prigozhin is on the staff of the Russian army in Rostov and is conducting negotiations with Moscow from there. Whether this is true cannot be verified. Nor is anything known about what is allegedly being negotiated there.
It is also said that the Chechen Akhmat [Rosgvardia] units marching against Wagner have already arrived outside Rostov, but have not yet entered the city. According to Alina, fighting is imminent, with both sides apparently wanting to avoid civilian casualties. Rumour has it that the Wagner soldiers want to leave Rostov to ‘settle things outside the city’, as they put it.
All of this is information that Alina has received from ordinary soldiers. So not everything has to be true, but that is what is being told among the Wagner people in Rostov.
The exciting question now is whether and what Prigozhin and Moscow will agree on, because if there is no agreement, there could be fighting outside Moscow in the evening.
Time will tell.
What do you think?
Riley Waggaman, substacking as Edward Slavsquat, and Rolo Slavskiy's substack, are two of the best for up to date commentary and analysis.
A third possibility is that Prigozhin sold out to MI6